UFC Vegas 8 preview: Alexa Grasso to star against Ji Yeon Kim

Recommend bets

2.5pts Alexa Grasso to win by decision at 8/13

1pt Emily Whitmire vs Polyana Viana - Either fighter to win by submission at 2/1

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Grasso to extinguish the Fire-Fist

Mexico’s Alexa Grasso has shown a great deal of striking potential in her UFC career, but a series of unfavourable matchups have hindered her overall success. In this bout against Ji Yeon Kim however, she faces an opponent willing to stand and trade with her for 15 minutes.

Whilst Kim has managed a winning 3-2 record inside the UFC, the difference in competition between these two fighters is huge. Fire-Fist has faced unranked opponents of lower calibre, whilst Grasso faced a former UFC champion and a number one contender in her last two respective fights.

Whilst strength of schedule is an important factor, the statistics also favour Grasso in this bout. The Mexican fighter has landed an impressive average of 5.25 significant strikes per minute, compared to Kim’s 4.49. Considering Grasso has had to endure much more grappling than her upcoming opponent, these stats imply that she will be the much busier of the two.

Stylistically, I feel Grasso is the more gritty and fluent hand fighter. Despite being at a six-inch reach disadvantage, she should be much quicker than her opponent. Expect her to close the distance, land her shots at boxing range and glide out of the pocket before Kim can retaliate.

It is clear that Grasso deserves to be favoured in this matchup, but I think her decision line holds the value. Neither fighter has suffered a knockout loss in 27 combined appearances, so both women are clearly durable.

We should see a complete 15-minute striking clinic from Grasso, who holds the advantages in experience, volume and speed. Barring a major upset, I expect her to leave the Octagon with three 30-27 scorecards.

One final submission loss?

The scheduling of this fight really was a great bit of matchmaking from the UFC. Both women are considered to be amongst the lower echelon of fighters in the Strawweight division, and a loss for either one could realistically spell the end of their time with the company.

Polyana Viana (10-4), a highly accomplished BJJ brown belt, currently lies on a three fight losing streak. She has struggled to adjust to a higher level of competition since a four minute submission victory in her UFC debut.

Emily Whitmire (4-3), has been unable to find any form in her career, having gone 2-2 inside the UFC’s Octagon. She is primarily a grappler and likes to gain top position, but also has three losses by submission. Viana has shown an aggressive submission game off her back, so this fight will likely provide ample time for an opportunity for either woman to get the tap.

Despite likely being the better Jiu-Jitsu grappler, Viana has shown that she can also be caught in submissions herself. In her last bout against Veronica Macedo, she left her arm exposed in a defensive lack of judgement and paid the price, tapping to an armbar after just 69 seconds into the fight.

As suggested by the previous tip, Women’s MMA has a reputation for fights going to decision. However, this is largely due to limitations in striking power, and fights that end inside the distance in the Strawweight division are statistically twice as likely to occur via submission.

Both women possess similar strengths and weaknesses here and, with 52% of their combined bouts ending via submission, I think there is every chance we see another tap-out on Saturday night.

Posted at 1445 BST on 28/08/20

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