UFC Vegas 6: Betting preview & tips for main card and preliminaries

Recommended bets: UFC Vegas 6

2pts Aleksei Oleinik to win at 23/10

3pts Justin Jaynes to win at 13/10

1pt Youssef Zalal to win via submission at 9/2

• Main event preview by Kieran Cobley

ALEKSEI OLEINIK wins this fight against Derrick Lewis every day of the week for me, purely because of how good his grappling ability is. The Russian fighter has won a whopping 46 times via submission (78% of his total wins), showing that if he takes you to the floor, he has every chance of finishing the fight.

This comes in stark contrast to Lewis, who has shown very little grappling ability, and who has not faced a fighter anywhere near as talented in the grappling department as Oleinik. While The Black Beast has only lost once via submission (to Daniel Cormier in 2018), his inability to defend takedowns and get up once taken down is something that always puts him at risk of being forced to submit again.

Lewis has been able to defend 53% of takedowns attempted on him, but when you look at who he has fought in the past and how skilled they are at wrestling, this number should be higher. You also have to factor in Oleinik’s takedown success rate of 46%. While that number doesn’t look particularly good, you have to remember he has fought fighters with incredible defensive wrestling ability, and that when he does land a takedown, it is usually the beginning of the end.

Oleinik will nevertheless have to be careful in this fight. Lewis has a heavy right hand, and if it connects with the Russian’s chin it will likely be lights out.

That said, look for Oleinik to circle away from Lewis’s right hand before quickly closing the distance to look for a takedown in the clinch. Once that takedown is secured he will hold position while waiting for an opening to secure a choke and get the tap.

• Preliminaries previewed by Will Dean

After a lacklustre card that faced numerous cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the UFC hosts its second straight event at the Apex.

The preliminaries for this event should be some of the best in recent weeks, with numerous fights that will be in contention for Fight of the Night honours. Featuring striking specialists such as Tim Means, Nasrat Haqparast and Justin Jaynes, we are sure to see a few finishes on the undercard.

Here are my two best bets for Saturday’s preliminaries.

Jaynes to defy the odds again

Justin Jaynes burst onto the scene with a 41-second knockout of Frank Camacho last month, taking the fight on just two days’ notice. The Michigan-born fighter is known for being explosive and dangerous in the opening round, having now secured 12 stoppage victories inside the first five minutes.

While Jaynes has been capitalising on last-minute opportunities, Gavin Tucker has been on the sideline with a series of injuries. Fighting just once in almost three years, Guvnor’s performances inside the cage have been as inconsistent as his schedule.

Tucker showed good striking and grappling in his two UFC wins, but his sophomore performance against Rick Glenn is hard to forget. In one of the most one-sided fights in recent memory, Tucker was dominated on the mat and absorbed 142 significant strikes.

It would be ill advised for the Canadian to attempt to grapple with Jaynes, who has a college wrestling background. The Guitar Hero can maintain position on top and looks to be of a similar calibre to Glenn, and could turn in a similarly dominant performance over Tucker if given the opportunity.

In regards to the striking exchanges, it is a classic battle of speed versus power. Tucker will have the higher output across 15 minutes, but Jaynes possesses the power to end the fight at any moment and will push the action. If the man from Michigan can throw powerful shots early on, as he often does, he can force Tucker into initiating the grappling.

Considering Jaynes has a clear path to victory and the more opportunistic finishing ability, I was surprised to see him at odds-against. Given Tucker’s temperamental performances and long lay-off, I am more than happy to back him.

Zalal to continue perfect UFC run

At just 23 years old, Youssef Zalal could have a bright future in the UFC. In his two performances inside the promotion he has demonstrated a well-rounded skill set, with some sharp hands and relentless wrestling.

The Moroccan Devil is elusive on the feet, with an awkward striking style that makes him both hard to anticipate and hard to hit. Across his last two bouts, he has out-landed both opponents by a combined 50-strike margin.

His opponent, Peter Barrett, is a southpaw fighter who naturally favours the left body kick. Slippery Pete thrives in chaotic brawls, which have aided his nine stoppage victories from 11 wins.

Zalal has shown great discipline and fight IQ in his career so far, which makes me think he will be able to control the tempo of the fight and where it takes place. One of the most impressive attributes we have seen from him is his ability to adapt his gameplan, so that he attacks where his opponent is weakest.

Against Barrett, the biggest skill gap is most likely in the grappling department. The UFC debutant has been taken down several times in each of his previous fights, either up against the fence or by opponents catching his kicks. Zalal landed six takedowns from 12 attempts in his first UFC bout and really should have no trouble forcing things to the mat here.

Barrett creates openings for his opponents by forcefully attempting to get back to his feet, and Zalal can certainly capitalise on this. The Moroccan has five submission victories from a variety of different chokes and sets them up beautifully.

Expect Barrett to give up his back in a scramble and for Zalal to sink in the Rear Naked Choke, securing his first UFC stoppage victory.

Posted at 1010 BST on 08/08/20

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.