UFC Vegas 24 betting tips: Saturday April 17
3pts Robert Whittaker to win in Round 4, 5 or by Decision at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Tony Gravely to win in Round 3 or by Decision at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
This weekend’s UFC event will be a satisfying payoff for fans of The Ultimate Fighter, as ROBERT WHITTAKER and Kelvin Gastelum once competed against each another as head coaches in 2018, on the show’s 28th season. The two were supposed to do battle in the finale of the competition, but the Australian was rushed to hospital for emergency surgery on the day of the fight and the bout was never rescheduled.
The landscape of the UFC’s Middleweight division has changed drastically since that season aired, as both Whittaker and Gastelum now find themselves chasing a new king at 185lbs, Israel Adesanya. Both men played pivotal roles in Adesanya’s journey to the top, with The Last Stylebender initially defeating Gastelum for the interim belt, before unifying the titles with a following victory over Whittaker.
While this card is heavily reliant on its main event in terms of star power and title implications, there are some other prospects and intriguing matchups to be found. Alexander Romanov and Juan Espino square off on the main card with a showcase of grappling talent, and the underrated Tony Gravely looks for his second consecutive victory in the preliminaries against Anthony Birchak.
When is UFC Vegas 24?
Saturday, April 17 — although it'll be Sunday in the UK
How can I watch it on TV?
Coverage is live in the UK on BT Sport 1, from 0100 BST on Sunday April 18
Whittaker to close the show
It would be impossible to analyse this main event without first acknowledging how both competitors have looked since their bouts against Adesanya. Firstly, the consequences of a five-round war with the now champion seem to have taken their toll on Gastelum, which is absolutely fair considering he was knocked down three times in the final round and was very close to being finished. The 29-year-old has competed three times since and looks to have lost a step in each appearance.
Gastelum first returned to the Octagon after the Adesanya loss to face Liverpool’s Darren Till, where he was convincingly out-struck as the 1/2 favourite. He was then submitted in less than 90 seconds against Jack Hermansson, also as the favourite. Gastelum eventually snapped the three-fight losing streak when facing a step down in competition against Ian Heinisch, but the striking exchanges in that fight looked much closer than they were supposed to, and Gastelum decided to turn to his wrestling to secure the victory.
It is because of Gastelum’s decline that MMA fans were concerned with how Whittaker would look in his return to competition. After losing the belt to Adesanya in a brutal knockout loss, many feared that the Australian would never get back to the dominant form he displayed in his two years as champion. Time was a great healer for Whittaker though, as The Reaper put on two vintage performances against both Jared Cannonier and Till to show that he can still compete at the highest level of the sport, and that he is ready to reclaim his title.
A win against Gastelum would set Whittaker up nicely for a rematch with Adesanya, and I think The Reaper has all the tools to get what he wants. While there are not many significant skill gaps between the pair, I believe the Australian is the more diverse striker, with a clearly superior gas tank.
Thinking back to the coaches’ challenge on The Ultimate Fighter, where both men faced off in a five kilometre run to win money for their team, Whittaker showed himself to have the far better endurance, ultimately lapping the American and looking relatively fresh by the end of the run.
The gap in cardio between the two should be one of the key facets to this fight, as both have proven themselves to be incredibly durable throughout their UFC careers; Gastelum has never been knocked out, and Whittaker has only been stopped by strikes in two of his 27 career bouts. We should therefore expect this fight to venture into the later rounds, where Whittaker should take over.
Considering Whittaker has perfected the art of winning rounds in a 25-minute main event, with each of his last four victories coming via unanimous decision, it is difficult to see The Reaper losing this one. And although I think it’s fair to be confident that the Australian wins by decision, the gap in cardio could cause concern for Gastelum in the championship rounds.
For that reason, backing WHITTAKER TO WIN IN ROUNDS 4, 5 OR BY DECISION is the best value bet for this fight, as it covers the two most likely outcomes for a very reasonable price of 10/11.
Gravely underrated
The UFC’s business model in 2021 seems focused on building up young and fresh talent, most of whom are alumni from Dana White’s Contender Series. For a prospect to be wholly marketable they need finishing ability, a fan-friendly fighting style and an eye-catching professional record. Unfortunately for TONY GRAVELY, a lack of these attributes has prevented him from being regarded as a serious prospect in the Bantamweight division, as I reckon he should be.
Of course, being marketable is not a prerequisite for being a good martial artist, and Gravely would be doing himself a disservice if he was to try and appeal more to the UFC’s hype machine. As a dedicated wrestler, his takedown ability is phenomenal, and his tenacity and cardio over 15 minutes make him a tricky matchup for anyone. While he may not be the most exciting fighter nor is he the hardest hitter, Gravely has found a style that works well for him.
Gravely has six defeats on his record, but the calibre that he has fallen short to can only be seen as a positive in hindsight. Each fighter that has bested him has gone on to have winning records in either the UFC or Bellator, and the fact that Gravely and his team believed he could compete against these names so early in his career should indicate just how much faith they have in his potential.
The UFC seem to finally be realising this, as they are offering him a step down in competition against Anthony Birchak, who has returned for his second stint in the UFC having been released in 2016. Birchak has had very favourable matchups on the regional scene since then, taking on inexperienced opponents to potentially pad his record and fast-track his return to the UFC.
While this fight could be competitive on the feet, I expect Gravely to land takedowns with ease and shut down any threat that Birchak possesses. The biggest question surrounding it seems more so concerned with whether or not the wrestler finds a finish in this bout, as the judges’ scorecards would surely favour him.
Gravely’s finishing potential is not found in his submission prowess or raw power in his hands, but in winning the war of attrition and the accumulation of strikes forcing a referee’s merciful stoppage. Of his 20 career wins, 15 of them have come in round three or later, with a further two coming in the last minute of the second round.
With a variety of propositional markets available for MMA betting these days, these statistics can be capitalised upon, and betting GRAVELY TO WIN IN ROUND 3 OR BY DECISION at 7/5 seems like an appealing choice. Of course, there will be the danger that the wrestler finds a finish earlier in the fight, but historically he has been most aggressive down the stretch.
Posted at 1115 BST on 15/04/21
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