UFC Vegas 15: Main card and preliminaries free betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

2pts Lewis vs Blaydes to not go the distance and Devin Clark to win at 1.94/1

2pts Su Mudaerji to win by KO, TKO or DQ at 6/4

Main card

• By Kieran Cobley

Derrick Lewis v Curtis Blaydes has early finish written all over it.

The pair have combined for 30 wins inside the distance (29 of which are knockouts) and in 47 combined fights, the pair have only gone the distance 10 times between them.

Blaydes has a very simple game plan: get the fight to the mat and deal damage with his punches and elbows to force a referee’s stoppage.

Lewis’s game plan is equally as simple, he just wants to throw overhands and hope one connects clean to win by KO.

I think Blaydes will win this one, but with Lewis’s insane one-punch knockout power, we'll stick to backing the fight to finish early as part of a double.

The second leg concerns Devin Clark v Anthony Smith where Clark has been priced as an 11/10 underdog and I can’t really see why.

Smith has lost three of his last four bouts, with one of those defeats a TKO loss to Glover Teixeira where he was absolutely brutalised.

On the other side of the cage, Clark is riding a two-fight win streak, with decision victories over Dequan Townsend and highly-touted prospect Alonzo Menifield.

This is a big step up in opposition for Clark, but judging by Smith’s last few performances, it looks as though this is the perfect time to fight him.

Smith has absorbed a lot of damage in his 49 pro fights, and it looks like that is really starting to catch-up with him, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Clark win within the distance either.

At 11/10 Clark is the bet and anything close to 2/1 the double makes plenty of appeal.

Prelims

• By Will Dean

In the second fight of the preliminaries, Su Mudaerji makes his hotly anticipated return to the Octagon after a 15-month absence. The Chinese fighter’s last performance was a thing of beauty, as he confidently outstruck a respected striker in Andre Soukhamthath across the course of 15 minutes, resulting in some very lopsided scoring.

It is rare that you see a 30-25 scorecard in MMA, and it is even more obscure in a fight that takes place on the feet. Whilst a KO victory would have been the cherry on top of a near perfect performance, the notorious toughness and durability of Soukhamthath cannot be denied. With that in mind, I think the finishing ability of The Tibetan Eagle is being overlooked by the bookies here.

Mudaerji has excellent footwork, both when offensively creating angles and when slipping his opponent’s strikes as he looks for the counter shot. He also possesses vicious and unorthodox kicks, which make him a dangerous striker. His record solidifies this claim as, prior to the Soukhamthath fight, he had won by knockout in 10 of his 11 victories.

Mudaerji takes on Malcolm Gordon on Saturday night, an aggressive submission artist that will charge forward and hope to force this fight to the mat. The Canadian is far too eager to engage in a brawl when hunting down his opponent, which is likely to spell danger against the elusive and unpredictable Chinese fighter.

Whilst records do not paint the full picture, there is a lot to be concerned about when looking at Gordon’s losses. Three of these have come by way of knockout, but it’s the overall lack of striking defence that sets these up. Gordon keeps his hands low and attempts to move out the way of shots, which is tempting fate at the best of times. Against the faster and accurate striker like Mudaerji, I expect him to pay for it.

Of their combined 32 fights, he and Gordon have gone to decision just three times. This tells me that both fighters are willing to engage in a war and look for the finish. The betting lines for this fight have Mudaerji as the heavy favourite, and it is hard to argue the contrary. The Tibetan Eagle will be the faster, more accurate striker, and should have little trouble putting Gordon away if he is anywhere near as fluent on the feet as he was in his last performance.

Posted at 1045 GMT 26/11/20

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