UFC Vegas 11: Main card and preliminaries free betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

4pts Chimaev to beat Meerschaert via KO or Submission at 1/2

2pts Covington to beat Woodley via decision at 8/11

3pts Laramie to win inside the distance at 4/5

2pts Ewell to win by decision at 10/11

0.5pt Laramie to win by submission at 17/2

• Prelims by Will Dean; scroll for main card by Kieran Cobley

Ewell be rewarded...

ANDRE EWELL is one of the more one-dimensional fighters on the UFC’s roster. With a ridiculous reach advantage over most of the Bantamweight division, his striking is crisp and difficult to deal with. Ewell has struggled against grappling-based opponents though, as both his takedown and guard defence leave a lot to be desired.

Thankfully for Ewell, he finds himself facing a striker who should really be fighting in a weight class below. Irwin Rivera will be at a seven-inch reach disadvantage on Saturday night and will have to really walk through the fire to land any meaningful strikes.

From what I have seen of Rivera’s stand up, he will struggle to manage that distance. When he walks his opponents down, he explodes with a single strike to get inside; typically a superman punch, flying knee or lead uppercut. While this could lead to a spectacular knockout, it will more likely give Ewell the opportunity to block the incoming strike and circle out into open space.

We will see Ewell come alive in that open space, utilising good straight punches and teep kicks as he flows in and out of range. I expect him to have a much larger output, as he can consistently stick out his jab to manage the distance and prevent Rivera from getting in close.

While Ewell should comfortably win the striking exchanges, I have enough faith in the durability and toughness of Rivera to wager that this fight will go the full 15 minutes. He made his UFC debut in a weight class above his own on less than two days’ notice in May, and was not perturbed by the striking of a world class kickboxer.

To add to this, Ewell is yet to demonstrate a killer instinct in the UFC himself, with all three victories coming by decision. He was also finished in the third round in both of his losses, meaning he is yet to score a knockout victory in 70+ minutes of fighting in the organisation. I expect him to be the clear round winner here, but I think Rivera has the mettle to stay in the fight.

TJ to deliver

A graduate from this season of Dana White’s Contender Series, TJ LARAMIE is wasting little time before making his UFC debut. The highly touted Canadian is a relentless wrestler with serious ground strikes and has won nine of his twelve wins by stoppage.

This bout will be an important marker in Laramie’s career as he faces a 35-fight veteran in Darrick Minner. Minner made his UFC debut against another grappling based Contender Series graduate in Grant Dawson, where he was comfortably out-matched.

With all due respect, I have my doubts about whether or not Minner is really UFC quality. Across his lengthy career, he has faced seven opponents that have fought in the UFC, managing just won victory overall.

The main issue for Minner is that he does not pace himself. Twenty of his 24 wins have come in the opening round and all but one of his losses have come inside the distance. The game plan for Laramie is therefore quite simple: survive the early submission onslaught and the fight is there for the taking.

I am backing the grappling awareness of Laramie in this fight. From what I have seen, he scrambles tremendously well and likes to sit in half-guard, a position that limits his opponent’s submission arsenal.

Minner is so active off his back that the opening few minutes will be chaotic, but his tendency to wilt in later rounds should give Laramie the opening he needs to finish the fight. The Canadian has finished most of his fights via (T)KO, but also threatens with submissions.

Considering that eight of Minner’s 11 losses have come by tap-out, I am also willing to take a chance on a submission victory at these odds.

Main card

The last UFC card before the promotion returns to Fight Island is upon us and what a card it is. The main event sees bitter rivals and former UFC welterweight champions Tyron Woodly and Colby Covington finally face off after years of trash talk and bad blood.

We also have the return of Khamat Chimaev to look forward to. He was the breakout star of the UFC’s last spell on Fight Island, and if he wins here, already has a bout agreed with former welterweight and middleweight title challenger Demian Maia.

Donald Cerrone, Mackenzie Dern and Johnny Walker also make an appearance on the main card but we'll begin with the feature.

Chaos to restore order

Colby 'Chaos' Covington v Tyron Woodley is a fight I am so excited to see. It has been matched up numerous times but has seen both men pull out of previous agreements. Finally, it looks as though the fight will go ahead.

Woodley isn’t looking as sharp as he was when he was the champion; Kamaru Usman humbled him with a fantastic display of cage dominance and striking, while Gilbert Burns also made easy work of the former champion with a dominant display that earned him a title shot.

Covington is known for his cardio, and that for me is where he wins this fight. His ability to throw strikes and out-wrestle his opponent flat out for a round, and then come back for the next round looking as fresh as a daisy before doing the same is simply remarkable.

While he wasn’t able to put this on show in his last fight with Usman, he should be able to against Woodley, as I believe he has the striking prowess and ability to outwrestle his oppoent.

Covington has landed a collective 322 (split 143 and 179) strikes in his last two outings, and we can look forward to him holding that sort of pace again.

I expect Covington to come out each round and apply pressure to Woodley, keeping him held up against the fence while throwing punch after punch for five straight rounds, allowing him to win a decision.

Borz never bores...

Khamzat 'Borz' Chimaev’s return to the Octagon is something I am really looking forward to after his two very impressive performances on Fight Island, where he won in two different weight classes.

Looking deeper into those fights, you also see just how little offensce Chimaev’s opponents, John Phillips and Rhys McKee, were able to utilise on him. Across both fights, Chimaev only absorbed one strike, while landing three takedowns out of three attempted, before finishing both men.

With a 100% takedown completion rate and an ability to hold the fight in a position where he won’t take any damage, it will take a lot to beat Chimaev. I expect his game plan to remain the same as it was on Fight Island, grab a hold of his opponent, take them down and batter them with strikes until either the referee pulls him off, or Meerschaert opens himself up to be put into a submission hold.

Dangerous Dern

Mackenzie Dern is one of the most gifted grapplers in the whole of women’s MMA and this is a fight in which I firmly believe we will see her win using that skill set.

Dern is taking on Ronda Markos, a fighter with a 10-8-1 record, who has struggled with grappling exchanges in the past.

Markos has been taken down four times across her last four fights, and if she ends up on the ground with Dern, she will not be in a position where he can win the fight, but in a position where she will be fighting just to survive.

Dern averages 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and has won two of her last four fights with submissions, which includes her nasty looking kneebar win over Hannah Cifers last time out.

I expect Dern to try and get this fight to the floor as early as possible before looking to lock in a submission. If unable to lock in a submission, I expect she will try to hold position and land strikes, allowing her to win on the judges' scorecards - combining both is an option for those looking for a third bet on the card.

Posted at 1535 BST on 18/09/20

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.