Will Dean was among the winners last weekend, and he has two strong fancies for Saturday's UFC prelims in Las Vegas.
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2.5pts Kevin Aguilar to win at 4/7
- The Griffin v Minner fight has been cancelled and previously-advised bets are void
Despite the lack of star power on Saturday night’s card, UFC fans will know that even the most uninspired line-ups can produce some exciting, must-see action.
The Apex’s smaller cage has been giving viewers some incredible finishes lately, and that looks likely to continue. The card also features some up-and-coming fighters such as Merab Dvalishvili, Mariya Agapova and Marvin Vettori who will try to stake their claim to be the company’s next big prospect.
Here is where I see value in the preliminaries.
Aguilar to out-strike Rosa
Charles Rosa returns for his second fight in just over a month after being thoroughly dominated by Bryce Mitchell at UFC 249 in May.
It is easy to understand Rosa’s enthusiasm to get back to the Octagon, as he recently endured a 30-month hiatus due to an almost career-ending neck injury. Long periods of absence are particularly unforgiving in MMA and fairytale returns seldom exist. He may have ultimately won his comeback fight in November 2019 but he has not looked particularly impressive in either performance since that reappearance.
Rosa’s Jiu-Jitsu has always been his greatest strength. Having won eight fights via submission, the black belt is opportunistic once he initiates the grappling. Unfortunately for him, his opponent this weekend is incredibly difficult to take down.
Across his four UFC fights, Kevin Aguilar has managed a takedown defence of 86%, preventing 15 of 16 attempts faced. He competed against some of the division’s best wrestlers in these bouts, which leads me to believe that The Angel of Death will be able to keep this fight on the feet against Rosa.
When it comes to the stand-up exchanges, Aguilar should be far superior. He is a clinical striker that uses crisp, straight punches to soften up his opponents and look for the knockout blow. These straight punches should be vital against an opponent who uses a more kick-based arsenal of attacks, especially to the legs.
With a four-inch reach advantage, Aguilar should be able to time his shots effectively and land the more powerful counter punches, impressing the judges and taking home the unanimous decision victory.
Posted at 1530 BST on 11/06/20
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