UFC Fight Night: Free betting tips for main card and preliminaries

Recommended bets

2.5pts Carlton Minus to win at 4/5

2pts Joe Solecki to win by decision at 6/4

2pts Pedro Munhoz to win in rounds 1-5 at 4/5

1pt Munhoz to win by submission at 11/2

• Preliminaries by Will Dean
• Scroll down for main event by Kieran Cobley

Minus to deliver calculated performance

This should be a competitive fight between two hungry debutants but while CARLTON MINUS and Matthew Semelsberger are both relatively inexperienced, the former has fought the much tougher competition, and appears to have more of a process to his fighting style.

Minus’ approach to striking is best described as sensible and disciplined. Primarily favouring straight combinations as the basis of his output, he manages distance superbly. Across his last three wins on the regional scene (all of which came by decision) he was able to consistently pick apart his opponents and pepper them with a relentless barrage of jabs and straights, all while barely being hit himself.

Semelsberger’s approach to MMA could not be more contrasting. He likes to charge forward, get in his opponent’s face, and make fights ugly. This has served him fairly well in his career so far, but he struggles in fights where he cannot force his opponents into brawls.

I trust the composure of Minus to continuously circle around the cage and keep Semelsberger at range. Clutch has been known to focus on leg kicks, which will be a useful weapon to immobilise Semelsberger if he invests in it early.

While it is hard to be too confident in a lower-level fight, Minus has the perfect style to perform well against an unpredictable opponent. Oddsmakers in the US originally opened him as a 2/7 favourite which, albeit too heavy, proves his style is convincing. At an easy-to-back 4/5, I am confident going against the public money and believe Minus should land far more significant strikes than his opponent and march on to a unanimous decision victory.

Solecki to hit double figures

Austin Hubbard has had the misfortune of facing grapplers throughout most of his UFC career. After losing decisions to BJJ specialist Davi Ramos and former Olympic wrestler Mark O. Madsen, he finally defeated a grappler by making Max Rohskopf quit on his stool in June.

While some feel Hubbard may have turned a corner with that recent performance, he was facing an inexperienced fighter that stepped in on 10 days’ notice. Rohskopf had some success with his takedowns, but was too aggressive in pursuing the submission and allowed Hubbard to find a route back to his feet.

JOE SOLECKI, the man originally scheduled to face Hubbard that day, is much more patient with his grappling. The BJJ black belt showed both his patience and grappling dominance in his most recent bout against Matt Wiman, where he landed four takedowns and advanced position six times on the way to a 30-26 decision victory.

Another main difference here is that Solecki may be a better striker than all of Hubbard’s aforementioned opponents. Thud did his best work on the feet in each of these performances, and while he may still have the advantage there on Saturday, the gap is significantly smaller.

Solecki is a worthy favourite in this fight. He should make the striking exchanges competitive, and will likely spend more time in the dominant position on the mat. While his record shows him to be a submission threat, I was impressed with Hubbard’s ability to stay out of danger. For that reason, I think we will see this fight go to a judges’ decision, where Solecki ultimately gets the nod.

Main card: Vote for Pedro

PEDRO MUNHOZ is the overwhelming favourite coming into Saturday’s main event against Frankie Edgar, but the value lies in backing the favourite to win inside the distamce.

The Young Punisher has 13 finishes in his 18 wins, showing that he is a very dangerous opponent for any fighter within the bantamweight division. He has heavy hands, as demonstrated with knockout wins over the likes of Cody Garbrandt, while he can also string together deadly combinations such as against Bryan Caraway.

Where Munhoz really stands out though is on the mat. He holds eight wins via submission, and his Guillotine Choke is the most feared submission in the bantamweight division.

This is what makes Edgar the underdog. Not only is he taking on such a dangerous opponent, but he is taking him on in his first outing at bantamweight. Edgar’s best chance of winning is to use his wrestling to hold Munhoz against the cage for as long as possible, but this still puts him in danger of being finished.

When closing the distance to get his hands on Munhoz there is every chance he will get caught by his opponent's striking. If Munhoz can shrug off any attempt by Edgar to hold him against the cage as well, it could end up in a grappling exchange on the mat, which is where the selection is at his most dangerous.

Edgar currently has no submission losses on his record, but I fully expect that to have changed on Saturday night.

Posted at 1105 BST on 20/08/20

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