UFC Fight Island: Prelims betting preview and tips from MMA expert Will Dean

Recommended bets

3pts Muslim Salikhov to win at 5/6

2pts Makwan Amirkhani to win via submission at 2/1

1pt Leonardo Santos to win via submission at 5/1

Fight Island is upon us! Dana White has delivered on his promise to provide the fans with a combat sports utopia, free from the threat of the worldwide pandemic. The UFC president has always been a stubborn man, but his conviction to bring this dream to life could be one of his crowning achievements to date.

The UFC 251 card suffered a blow over the weekend with Welterweight contender Gilbert Burns testing positive for coronavirus. Thankfully, the UFC has moved quickly to bring Jorge Masvidal into the main event, creating one of the most anticipated fights of the year. Prior that, two other titles will be on the line in the Bantamweight and Featherweight divisions, making UFC 251 an event for the history books.

While fans are eagerly awaiting the main card, the preliminary fights will start the night off with a bang. The UFC has scouted some of the best regional talent across the world for this event and has pitted them against some already rising prospects. Look out for the debuting Jiri Prochazka and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, as well as the established Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Volkan Oezdemir.

Here are my best bets for the preliminary action, while you can read Kieran Cobley's main card preview here.

King of Kung Fu to defeat Capoeira

Both Muslim Salikhov and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos are widely regarded as two of the most devastating and unorthodox strikers in the Lightweight division. They both have highlight-reel finishes and boast some impressive power, making for an intriguing fight in Abu Dhabi.

Salikhov is getting the step-up in competition that he deserves, having amassed a professional kickboxing record of 185-13 prior to joining the UFC. He lost his debut to a strong wrestler, but the Russian has since demonstrated his skillset on the feet, notching two devastating KO victories, as well as a dominant 30-26 performance in his last outing.

A mainstay in the UFC since 2015, Zaleski has not quite reached the lofty heights many expected him to. The Brazilian won seven straight in the organisation before suffering a late KO loss to Li Jingliang last year. This was followed by a close decision victory in his last bout where he looked tentative and hesitant compared to the explosive finisher we had come to expect.

I am inclined to believe Salikhov will have the slight advantage on Saturday. The Russian’s technique is flawless and he sets up his counter shots with great intelligence. Zaleski has a reputation for stunning finishes but his ability to throw caution to the wind could be his undoing here. His striking defence has always been questionable, and it has been exploited by the higher calibre of opponent he has faced recently. In his last two fights, he has defended just 51% of the strikes he has faced.

I am expecting a competitive fight between two exciting styles, but ultimately Salikhov should find the cleaner shots and have a better chance at landing a knockout blow.

Mr Finland to win battle of Europeans

Prior to the pandemic, Makwan Amirkhani was training with Conor McGregor at SBG Ireland, in an effort to develop his skills on the feet. The Finnish grappler will certainly have made improvements from sparring with the Notorious, making him dangerous in all aspects of MMA.

Amirkhani’s background is in Greco-Roman wrestling, which has served him well in his pursuit of the submission. He has finished 10 fights via tap-out in his professional career, including Anaconda Choke victories over known Europeans Chris Fishgold and Tom Duquesnoy.

Danny Henry, his opponent, is a gritty fighter who has a large frame for the Featherweight division. He makes fights competitive in the later rounds, pushing a frantic pace and drowning his opponents in his pressure fighting. Henry is regarded as a slow starter, which was his undoing in his most recent bout at UFC London last year. He was hit clean by his opponent, taken down and submitted within 77 seconds.

Amirkhani has shown stamina issues in the past, and if this fight goes into a third round the tide could turn in Henry’s favour. Mr Finland and the SBG Ireland team are aware of this and prepare him to be opportunistic and finish fights as quickly as possible. Couple this with Henry’s slow starts, and you have the potential for an early finish.

Whilst Amirkhani has improved his striking skills, his best tools lie in the grappling department. Having averaged three or more takedowns per UFC fight, I expect him to get Henry to the floor and work his way to the neck, securing his 11th submission victory.

Age is just a number for Santos

At 40 years old, Leonardo Santos has had one of the most intriguing UFC careers. His 17-3 record is impressive, holding victories over both Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin, but his inactivity has denied fans from seeing his true potential. I believe that if Santos had fought as regularly as others in his weight class have done, then he would have entered the illustrious top 15 and could have been much more of a household name.

He holds a 4th degree BJJ black belt and is possibly the most decorated practitioner in the division. Combined with this, he has raw power in both of his hands, which he demonstrated on his way to becoming the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 2 tournament back in 2013.

UFC debutant Roman Bogatov will be hoping to show the UFC just how talented he is with a victory on Saturday night. The Russian is a highly touted prospect, relying on some ruthless wrestling and smothering top control to bully whoever he is fighting. However, this may prove difficult against the Brazilian. Santos boasts an 86% takedown defence rate across his seven UFC bouts and will be difficult to control if he does end up on his back.

Bogatov will certainly be outgunned on the feet. The Russian’s one-dimensional approach will force him into grappling exchanges, which could provide Santos with the opportunity to lock up his 10th submission victory. As we have seen many times in MMA, a persistent wrestling game plan is often the most physically taxing, and fighters who struggle to hold their opponents down will likely end up tiring themselves out.

I expect Bogatov to fall victim to this, overexerting himself early on and getting caught in a choke in the later rounds. The Brazilian is a far too decorated grappler to be controlled for 15 minutes, and at an implied probability of just under 17%, I think the odds makers are offering some incredible value on yet another submission victory.

Odds correct as of 1700 BST on 07/07/20

Related links

• Kieran Cobley's UFC Fight Island main event tips

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