Free MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Island 7, Saturday January16

UFC betting tips: Fight Island 7

1pt Joaquin Buckley to win in round two at 5/1

2pts Matt Brown vs Carlos Condit to not go the distance at 11/10

2pts Ramazan Emeev to win by decision at evens

2pts Nassourdine Imavov to win at 5/4

0.5pt Justin Tafa to win by round one KO at 6/1

Main card

By Kieran Cobley

The UFC returns for a New Year with an absolute stellar card on Fight Island.

With a card full of legends and former champions, this event is sure to be a fan-pleaser and is a fitting way to kick off 2021.

Former featherweight Max Holloway will look to build his path back to the title against Calvin Kattar following two consecutive losses to the new featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Kattar can also inch closer to the title with a win here, as he looks to build on consecutive wins over Dan Ige and Jeremy Stephens.

In the co-main event, UFC legends Carlos Condit and Matt Brown will face off. Neither man is anywhere near a title shot, but they won’t care, and will focus purely on putting on a show for the fans. Both men are known as knockout artists, so sparks (and possibly gumshields) will fly.

Buckley to strike a blow

Joaquin Buckley became an instant sensation last year after his jumping spinning back kick KO over Impa Kasanganay and a follow-up KO win over Jordan Wright.

That hype is set to continue to grow as he progresses and a win over Alessio Di Chirico will show he much he has progressed.

Di Chricico is a well-rounded fighter with 12 pro wins (five KO/TKO, four submissions and three decisions) and in his five losses, he has only been finished once and that was via submission in 2017.

The Italian has struggled recently though and has lost three fights on the bounce by decision.

This fight is all about Buckley’s striking. If the American can sow the skills he has shown in his last two fights and land clean, he should win easily, a fact underlined by odds of around the 1/3 mark.

For a spot of value, it is perhaps worth backing Buckley to win in round two. The American’s last three wins all coming in the second round and his opponent here may just about get that far.

Expect hell-for-leather clash

Matt Brown vs Carlos Condit is a fight I wish fans would have been able to see earlier in each man's career.

Brown was immortalised after his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, where he famously damaged his foot when knocking out Jeremy May with a head kick.

Condit meanwhile made his name in WEC before the promotion was absorbed by the UFC, and it was in the UFC where he became the interim welterweight champion.

Combined, the pair have 50 combined finishes from 63 pro wins, and 20 losses within the distance from 30 in total.

Both men are at a stage in their careers where they have absorbed a lot of damage but will still go hell for leather to put on a show for the fans and that will likely end in one of them losing within the distance.

Be sure to check this fight out as it is guaranteed to be a fun watch and betting on the fight to not go the distance is by far the most appealing play at just above evens in a place.

Preliminaries

By Wil Dean

Playing the waiting game

Ramazan Emeev is a very hard fighter to look good against and a very hard fighter to finish. His striking defence record of 68% is the sixth highest of the entire UFC roster and his constant grappling pressure ensures most of his opponents spend the majority of the fight on their backs.

Of course, we should expect no less from a Dagestani Russian like Emeev. Across his five UFC bouts, he has attempted a total of 39 takedowns, averaging seven-plus per fight. With such grappling dominance, it is easy to see why the judges favour him to win rounds.

Emeev’s opponent, David Zawada, is no stranger to this style of fighter, having faced another Dagestani grappler in his most recent bout. After giving up an effortless takedown in the opening minute, the German fighter was patient from the bottom and threatened with various submissions, before ultimately sinking in a triangle choke and getting the submission victory.

Zawada’s goal will be exactly the same here, as I cannot see him winning this fight any other way. Unfortunately for Sagat, Emeev is a much stiffer test and a more composed grappler. The Russian has wrestled against 23 opponents in his MMA career, and has only been caught in a submission once (in his second bout, over 11 years ago).

Without getting caught in a very unexpected submission from the guard, I struggle to see how Emeev loses this fight. The Russian is so reliable and conservative with his approach that he almost fights to not lose.

Emeev has been criticised in the past for his lack of killer instinct and disinterest in finishing his fights. All five of his UFC bouts have comfortably gone the distance, with the Russian landing just one knockdown and attempting three submissions across 65 minutes of time in the cage.

While this would usually be a concern, a pedestrian pace is exactly what you want when you are betting a fighter to win on points. I expect this fight to follow that same trend, with Emeev picking up a dominant 30-26 decision on all three judges’ scorecards.

French fancy

MMA is finally on the rise in France, with the sport recently being legalised and broadcast regionally in 2020. Rising stars such as Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane have already begun to dominate the UFC’s heavyweight division, but Nassourdine Imavov will be hoping to become the face of French MMA at 185lbs.

Training alongside the Heavyweight behemoths at the MMA Factory in Paris, Imavov is currently riding a six-fight winning streak, with the most recent win coming in his UFC debut. The Frenchman showed himself to be a well rounded fighter, with a decent level of endurance to compete for 15 minutes against a hard hitter.

Imavov faces a dangerous test in the early goings against Phil Hawes, who has finished all of his nine professional wins inside six minutes (seven of those coming in round one). Conversely, Hawes’ two professional losses, as well as his exhibition fight on the Ultimate Fighter, all came when fights moved past the eight-minute mark.

From watching these fights, there is a clear cardio issue for Megatron, who comes flying out the gates in the opening round and throws his strikes with clear knockout intentions. Imavov faced a similar narrative in his UFC debut, but was able to weather the early storm and take over in rounds two and three.

Skill for skill, I actually think these two fighters are pretty equal in their abilities, with the cardio edge favouring Imavov. As long as he can survive that early onslaught, I think he has the perfect opportunity to begin what could be a monumental year for French MMA.

First for profit

Continuing with the theme of big hitters, the Heavyweight clash between Justin Tafa and Carlos Felipe promises to be explosive. Tafa has one win and one loss in the UFC so far, with both coming by brutal knockout in the first round.

Considering the way Tafa fights, this is not at all surprising. The Samoan has absolute dynamite in his hands and impressive speed with his counter striking for such a big athlete. Of course, with size and power comes the sacrifice of cardio and longevity, so Tafa’s chances of winning this fight seem slim outside of the opening round.

Carlos Felipe has also managed a 1-1 record in the UFC, but both of his fights have gone the distance. The Brazilian is somewhat of a slow starter, who takes a few minutes to work out his timing and read his opponent’s tendencies. Felipe has faith in his cardio to make amends for this poor start, by increasing his volume and securing the late stoppage or a clear decision victory when his opponent begins to fade.

The narrative of this fight is fascinating, as both fighters’ weaknesses play directly into the hands of their opponent. If we see a second or third round, the result should be something of a foregone conclusion, so the entire outcome of the fight seemingly rests on the first five minutes.

In that time, we should see Tafa have a big advantage in the striking department. Early on, Felipe comes crashing forward with the same overhand right, which the Samoan can certainly counter if he gets his timing right. If they exchange at boxing range, Tafa also has more dexterity with his shot selection, including a very sneaky uppercut that he throws effortlessly.

I completely understand why Felipe is the favourite to win this fight, given that his path to victory is much more achievable. However, the price on Tafa to win via a round one knockout is too tempting to pass on. I simply cannot see Tafa winning this fight in any other way, so the gap between his 6/4 outright and this 6/1 prop presents some serious value.

Posted at 1255 GMT on 14/01/21

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