With eight wins from eight selections in July, Will Dean looks to continue his fine Fight Island tipping form with two more recommend bets for Fight Island 3's preliminary battles on Saturday night.
Recommend bets, Saturday July 25
3pts Nathaniel Wood & Tanner Boser to win at 0.71/1
After two amazing weeks of combat in Abu Dhabi, Fight Island is coming to an end. There have been some highlight-reel knockouts, some gruesome submissions and a touch of controversy; overall it has been a fortnight to remember for UFC fans.
Before returning to the US however, we have one final card. Headlined by former Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and UK favourite Darren Till, the event will showcase more of the UFC’s European talent.
The preliminaries are especially interesting this week, with many strong favourites and some competitive underdogs on display.
The Prospect
Wagering on heavy favourites can be a complicated game in MMA. With four-ounce gloves and a puncher’s chance, nothing is certain in this sport. This card presents a complicated dilemma because the favourites are all warranted, but the odds are slightly too steep to risk combining them. However, I believe there are two exceptions to this.
Nathaniel Wood comes into this fight after suffering a loss to a top 15 opponent; his first defeat inside the UFC. A well-rounded fighter with many exciting finishes to his name, he faces a short notice opponent making their company debut on this occasion.
From watching some of his previous bouts, it appears that John Casteneda’s offence is largely kicking based. He prefers to stay on the outside and throw kicks from a safe distance, constantly circling to avoid being hit as he waits for the perfect opportunity to shoot for a takedown.
This is a style that I think really suits Wood. He is the aggressor in most of his bouts and has the stamina to chase an opponent around the cage for 15 minutes as he lands strikes. The Englishman also throws heavy leg kicks, which will limit the Mexican’s mobility in the later rounds.
Wood faced a similar striking style at UFC London against Jose Quinonez. He made a smart adjustment in that fight, faking the straight and throwing pre-emptive hooks for his opponent to run into. That is certainly something I could see him landing here.
In regards to the grappling, Casteneda also had success with his wrestling in his career. However, Wood has demonstrated good takedown defence so far in the UFC, utilising a headlock to control his opponents and turn the grappling exchanges in his favour. The D’Arce choke will be available to 'The Prospect' if he can continue to stuff takedowns like this.
Overall, I expect Wood to be in control of this fight, wherever it takes place. At only 26 years old, the London-based fighter continues to improve under the tutelage of UK MMA legend Brad Pickett, and should add another victory to his resumé here.
The Bulldozer
Tanner Boser faces Raphael Pessoa later on in the evening. Making a quick turnaround after taking little damage in his recent KO victory just under a month ago, 'The Bulldozer 'will be fresh and in good shape for this bout.
Pessoa has had mixed results in the UFC so far, losing via submission on his debut and scoring a decision victory most recently. The Brazilian’s skillset largely revolves around grappling, but he is yet to land a takedown so far.
Furthermore, across 19 minutes inside the cage he has only attempted to get the fight to the mat on two occasions. In a fight where he will be facing a foe with a pressuring style, I am inclined to believe that we will not see too much grappling here either.
Boser is the much more complete fighter on the feet, with a higher work-rate and more fluidity to his striking. Despite being a Heavyweight, the Canadian wins the majority of his fights by decision, where he takes his opponents into deep water and drowns them with his striking volume. This was demonstrated best in his debut, where he landed 93 significant strikes on the way to a dominant 30-27 victory.
Boser should be in cruise control in this fight, as long as he stays weary of the powerful right hand of Pessoa. The Brazilian relies heavily on his power during striking exchanges, opting to throw individual heavy shots instead of combinations. Unfortunately for him, Boser has shown a solid chin so far, even surviving a full 15 minutes with feared finisher and prospect Ciryl Gane (who coincidentally holds a first round victory over the Pessoa).
As long as Boser is dialled in and avoids the power shots and takedown attempts of Pessoa, he should comfortably get the win here. I fancy the Canadian to win a decision, but his recent KO victory was a stark reminder that any Heavyweight has the power to end a fight in an instant.
Aspinall to debut in style
Tom Aspinall has the opportunity to burst onto the scene on Saturday night with a win over Jake Collier. The 27-year-old from North-West England has all the tools to make it in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, where the British Isles has been lacking in representatives over the years.
Standing at 6'5, the UFC debutant has a decent frame for the division. A former boxer that has previously trained with Tyson Fury, he has a great blend of both speed and power in his hands, as well as a thunderous leg kick in MMA. Aspinall uses these techniques liberally, offering a high output that has provided him with five KO victories inside the cage. If that was not enough, he also has a wrestling background and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, making him a difficult opponent wherever the fight takes place.
With all that in mind, you would assume the UFC would want to hand pick his opponent, in an attempt to build up and transform the young Heavyweight into the next British star. That is where Jake Collier comes in.
A UFC veteran with a 3-3 record inside the company, Collier has not competed since 2017 after serving a suspension for using a performance-enhancing substance. We have seen countless occasions where fighters return from a long layoff and look like a shell of their former selves, and this will likely be the case on Saturday.
To make matters worse, Collier is moving up a weight class for this fight. As a former Middleweight (185lbs) and Light Heavyweight (205lbs), he will be undersized against the 245lbs Englishman come fight night. Heavyweight frames carry natural power, and it is unlikely that Collier will be able to compete with Aspinall’s fight-ending punches.
Overall, Aspinall has far too many advantages to ignore in this fight. If the American chooses to grapple with him, he will face the threat of submissions and a complicated defensive guard. If the fight remains standing, Aspinall has the size, speed, power and volume advantages. Expect the Englishman to push the pace early on, before unloading an effortless 1-2 combination that knocks his opponent out cold.
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