Will Dean was among the winners as Fight Island began, and he's back with a range of fancies for Wednesday's preliminaries.
Recommended bets
3pts Khamzat Chimaev to win via submission at 10/11
2pts Jack Shore to win via submission at 13/10
UFC 251 was a massive success, supposedly generating the most PPV buys in the sport since McGregor v Khabib. And, as more fighters are arriving every day to Yas Island, the organisation continues its tireless schedule with a rare Wednesday event.
The lack of star power on this midweek card means that the preliminaries are just as relevant as the main card fights. There is a large cohort of European fighters competing at this event, namely Jack Shore, Modestas Bukauskaus and Lerone Murphy. With travel restrictions still enforced across the globe, it is great that these fighters are getting the opportunity to compete and stay active.
Here are my bets for the exciting preliminary action.
Chimaev to arrive in style
Making his UFC debut with just a 6-0 record, the talent scouts clearly see potential in Khamzat Chimaev. A tenacious and smothering wrestler, who draws comparisons to Dagestani phenoms Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, he has won all of his bouts by stoppage (4 KOs, 2 Submissions). Facing a variety of opposition during this streak, including a combat Sambo champion and Georgia State champion wrestler, the Chechen-born Swede's grappling is evidently world-class.
Welcoming him to the Octagon on Wednesday night will be John Phillips. Widely regarded as a power puncher, he has struggled in fights against wrestling-based opponents. In his two UFC bouts that involved grappling, he hit the mat 86% of the times he faced a takedown. His opponent is an excellent chain wrestler who will aggressively pursue takedowns in a variety of ways, which is a cause for concern for the striker.
Unfortunately for the Welshman, the narrative just gets worse. When involved in grappling exchanges he allowed his opponents to advance position 11 times, subsequently being submitted on both occasions. His deficiencies on the ground have hindered his UFC career and, at 35 years of age, this could be the last time we see him in the organisation.
One redeeming quality for Phillips is his durability. Across his 32-fight career he has only suffered two ‘knockout’ losses, both of which came via injuries or doctor’s stoppages. The Welsh Wrecking Machine’s ability to absorb shots and remain unmoved is certainly admirable, and I question if Chimaev will be able to generate the power necessary to do significant damage to his opponent.
To me this seems like a clever ploy by the UFC to feed the hype of an upcoming prospect by offering them a sacrificial lamb. Phillips has scored KO victories as an underdog before, but the difference in grappling ability is wide enough to justify Chimaev being such a heavy favourite ahead of his debut.
Chimaev fights at too high a pace for me to envisage this fight going three rounds and the toughness of his opponent means a submission victory is most likely. The Chechen-born Swede has shown an opportunistic D’Arce choke on the regional scene, and I think he can catch Phillips as he attempts to get back to his feet late in the first round, handing the Welshman his sixth submission loss in potentially his last fight with the UFC.
A submission is Shore to happen
Jack Shore will be a massive 1/7 favourite on Wednesday night and it is easy to see why. Aaron Phillips is coming in as a last-minute replacement and has already shown that he is not really UFC calibre, being thoroughly out-grappled in both of his 2014 decision losses inside the Octagon. He faces a similar test against the Welshman, who looks to be the UK's next hot prospect.
A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with a combined 24-0 record at amateur and professional level, Shore has shown a real intelligence on the mat. He controls his opponents well, setting traps and controlling the wrist as he makes his way to their back. With seven submission victories as a professional (six by Rear-Naked choke), he is a threat to any fighter who ends up on the ground with him.
Given what we have seen from his opponent, I would say it is only a matter of time before Shore is in top control. Phillips was taken down on 11 occasions across his two UFC appearances, letting his opponents advance position 13 times. While these numbers are certainly alarming, the footage makes matters worse. The Model is active with submission attempts on the bottom, which often creates space for scrambles and an opportunity for the fighter on top to move to a more dominant position. If the same happens on Wednesday night, Shore will certainly get the better of these exchanges.
I expect this contest to be as one-sided as the odds indicate. Of course, Shore could be victorious via a knockout or decision victory, but I am willing to trust Phillips’ durability and Shore’s intelligence at the odds. Expect the Welshman to eventually get the fight to the mat, find his opponent's back and make him submit with yet another Rear-Naked Choke.
Posted at 1440 BST on 14/07/20
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