MMA betting tips: UFC 260, Saturday Match 27
2pts Francis Ngannou to win at 4/5 (Betfred, Betway)
2pts Michal Oleksiejczuk & Omar Morales to win at 6/4 (Unibet, Sky Bet)
1pt Michal Oleksiejczuk to win by KO at 21/10 (PaddyPower, Betfair)
Main card
By Kieran Cobley
UFC 260 takes place on Saturday night and is capped off with possibly the most highly anticipated rematch ever, as Stipe Miocic looks to defend his heavyweight title for a second time against FRANCIS NGANNOU, who is backed to win at a shade of odds-on.
This is a selection which is based around Ngannou’s change in coaching staff and the smaller UFC Apex Centre cage being an issue for Stipe Miocic.
When these two first met, Miocic put on a wrestling clinic against Ngannou, taking him down and holding top control to negate The Predator's heavy hands in the stand up.
This will be much harder now, as Ngannou has focused himself a lot more on his defensive wrestling since moving his training to Xtreme Couture full time, and Miocic will have to put himself in big danger to attempt a takedown.
Ngannou’s marauding boxing style is going to be a huge threat to Miocic’s title reign as well.
We saw just how effective it was when Ngannou faced Jairzinho Rozenstruik and knocked him out in less than 30 seconds. This striking style is best described as 'fly swatting' – it might take Ngannou three, four or even five swings to connect, but once he does, the likelihood is that Miocic will hit the canvas.
While Miocic does have great movement, which could keep him out of trouble, he will still be at risk of being clipped, and for that reason alone, I see Ngannou walking out as the new champion with a KO win.
That option is 10/11, but at just a hair shorter the 4/5 that he wins is probably better value.
Preliminaries
By Will Dean
Lord of the cage
MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK makes his long awaited return to the UFC’s Octagon after a year’s absence, taking on fellow European Modestas Bukauskas in a Light Heavyweight showdown.. Both men will be looking to bounce back after suffering losses in their last outings, each conceding a first round stoppage at the hands of Jimmy Crute.
The loss to Crute was Oleksiejczuk’s second consecutive defeat via submission, which has really dented the public’s perception of the Polish fighter. Prior to these losses, Lord Michal was considered an upcoming prospect with a unique striking style that incorporates a ferocious pace and debilitating hooks to the body.
Oleksiejczuk will be facing a fellow striker on Saturday night, and he will relish the opportunity to once again showcase his skills. Bukauskas relies heavily on his range in fights, as his best weapons are his straight punches and kicks to the legs and body. This works nicely for Oleksiejczuk, who is the definition of a pressure fighter; one who will look to walk his opponent down and stay in boxing range for as long as possible.
We saw Bukauskas struggle at a closer range in his last fight against Crute, where he threw an ill-advised kick at too close a distance and ultimately paid a hefty price for it. As long as Oleksiejczuk avoids taking too many leg kicks, I think he can overwhelm his opponent and force a very similar kind of finish in this bout.
Whilst the London-born Bukauskas will have a significant height advantage in this fight, I believe the shorter stature also works in Oleksiejczuk’s favour, as he will have more opportunities and easier access to unleash his body shots. Bukauskas also uses a high defensive guard when defending strikes, which will also give the Polish fighter plenty of opportunities to connect.
Prior to his back-to-back submission losses, I was once a believer that Oleksiejczuk could achieve a great deal at Light Heavyweight, due to the skill set, style and speed he possesses. Whilst it is clear that his grappling inefficiencies will prevent him from ever breaking into the illustrious top five, it is unlikely they will be on display here.
Oleksiejczuk will be getting the perfect fight to remind everyone just why we saw so much promise in him, and I think he will walk away the decisive winner of this bout. For my money, he is a superior striker to Bukauskas and should be a safe bet for the first half of a double.
For added value, I also think we are getting a generous price on Lord Michal to finish the fight via knockout. Ten of his 14 victories have ended this way and Bukauskas has shown defensive liabilities to the body in his recent fights.
Morales to stand his ground
OMAR MORALES will make his fourth UFC appearance in just over a year as he looks to bounce back from his first professional loss. The Venezuelan Fighter fought valiantly against one of the highest level kickboxers in the division in Giga Chikadze, but was ultimately outgunned on the feet. Prior to that fight, he confidently claimed decision victories over Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez, the latter of which is widely considered a tough test for any aspiring prospect at 145lbs.
The strength of schedule for Morales since arriving at the UFC via the Contender Series has shown the confidence and belief that the UFC brass have in the Venezuelan. With that in mind, you can understand why they have opted to pit him against Shane Young, a gritty New Zealander who is also coming off a loss.
Young is a fighter that only seems to have success when pressuring his opponents. Across his four UFC bouts, you can clearly see a difference in confidence and capabilities depending entirely on whether or not Smokin’ Shane is the fighter moving forwards or backwards.
Unfortunately for Young, Morales is an assured and composed striker that likes to really dig his heels into the centre of the Octagon and command space. Considering the Venezuelan Fighter is a quicker, more accurate and powerful striker as well as the stronger athlete, I struggle to see him giving away ground to Young and fighting on the back foot. When Young realises that he will not be able to dictate the tempo and distance of the fight, he will likely concede ground to Morales himself and let his opponent take over.
If Morales does stand his ground, I struggle to see him losing this fight. Skill for skill, he should have Young beaten wherever this bout takes place, and that is reflected in the odds. The public money has also acknowledged this, pushing him from 8/13 to near 1/2 in the last couple of weeks. I think Morales is the perfect second leg to a 6/4 double, and I expect him to light work of his opponent on Saturday night.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 26/03/21
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
