Will Dean has a strong 4/6 fancy for this weekend's preliminaries at UFC 252, while Kieran Cobley has two tips for the main card.
Recommended bets
3pts Livia Souza to win at 4/6
3pts Dvalishvili to win by decision at 8/11
2pt double Miocic v Cormier and Dos Santos v Rozenstruik to end in KOs at 1.27/1
- Prelims previewed by Will Dean
- Main card below from Kieran Cobley
Vulnerable, Yoder looks
With a 13-2 record, Livia Souza is ready to break into the Strawweight top 15. The Brazilian Gangsta comes forward with a real aggression, throwing powerful shots as she looks to get the fight to the ground and secure a submission. Holding a black belt in both Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, she has proven to be a danger wherever the fight takes place.
At first glance, the size discrepancy between Souza and her opponent looks alarming. However, despite standing four inches taller and holding a seven and a half inch reach advantage, Ashley Yoder does not like to fight at range. Instead, The Spider Monkey prefers to get in close and lands most of her shots in the clinch. Against a prolific Judo practitioner like Souza, who has demonstrated an impressive variety of trips and hip throws across her career, this could be a recipe for disaster.
Yoder is no stranger to the grappling herself, with all of her UFC fights so far hitting the mat. While she has her moments on top, she is far too aggressive and finds herself being swept, reversed and caught in submissions by opponents with credentialed BJJ backgrounds. Souza has shown how aggressive she can be off her back, winning four of her bouts via submissions from the bottom.
In truth, it is quite difficult to see exactly where Yoder wins this fight over the course of 15 minutes. She has been out-struck on the feet by all but one of her UFC opponents and struggles to keep top position in the grappling. Souza may end up on her back on a few occasions, but I can see her clearly winning this fight by KO, submission or decision.
Two knockout fights
Stipe Miocic v Daniel Cormier is set to become a classic, as it decides who is the winner of their trilogy and the UFC heavyweight champion, while Junior Dos Santos v Jairzinho Rozenstruik pits two knock out artists against each other in a smaller cage, which should lead to more exchanges.
I’m backing both fights to end in a knockout, based on the fact each of the four fighters has knockout power, as evidenced by the fact the they share 49 combined knockout wins.
In the Miocic v Comier trilogy fight, both men have a style of striking that lends itself to knockouts. Cormier will often utilise the clinch to counter the range disadvantage he has, and when locked in there, he lands short and sharp shots before landing heavier shots as his opponent tries to push out of it.
Miocic is a bit more well rounded in the striking and has some fantastic technical ability. In his last fight against Cormier, he switched up his striking in the fourth round, going to the body with uppercuts and crosses with his left hand, which caused Cormier to pull his hands down, leaving his head exposed for a big knockout shot.
Dos Santos vs Rozenstruik also pits two differing striking styles against each other. Dos Santos is often the aggressor, utilising his boxing skills to put together combinations that end in a KO shot. Rozenstruik meanwhile is very much a counter striker, who waits for his opponent to come in so he can slip their shot and land a big punch of his own. This didn’t work out against Francis Ngannou, who just windmilled punches at the fighter from Suriname, leaving him no chance to counter.
Looking at the tape and stats of each man, both fights to end in a knockout at just above even money looks to be a good bet.
Decision time for Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili v John Dodson is one of the most intriguing bouts on this main card. In one corner you have Dvashvili, a fighter who has incredible takedown ability, but struggles to hold his opponents to the mat. In the other you have Dodson, a fighter who holds such good wrestling defence, and who’s movement and speed of striking causes issues for his opponents. That being said I believe Dvalishvili will take this fight on a decision.
The Georgian fighter set the record for most takedowns in a single fight in his last outing, landing 13 in three rounds. This shows just how brilliant his game plan is. If he can take the fight to the floor it puts the bout in his court. If he can hold his opponent down that’s great, he can strike at them or look to lock in a submission. If he can’t hold them down it isn’t an issue, he has good enough wrestling to take them back down again, and constant takedowns will wear his opponents out.
You also have to look at the fact that this fight is in a smaller cage due to being at the Apex centre. This gives Dodson less room to move, and shortens the distance between him and Dvalishvili, making it easier to shoot for takedowns.
For me, Dvalishvili should have no issues in this fight as long as he can utilise his wrestling and doesn’t allow himself to be drawn into a striking battle by Dodson.
Posted at 0900 BST on 13/08/20
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