Olympics betting tips: Preview and best bets for men's track and field events at Paris 2024

Olympics betting tips: Paris 2024

4pts Noah Lyles to win 100m at 7/4 (General)

1pt Kristjan Ceh to win discus at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Marco Arop to win 800m at 12/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Hansle Parchment to win 110m hurdles at 12/1 (Betfred)

1pt Steven Gardiner to win 400m at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred)

0.5pt Charlie Dobson to win 400m at 20/1 (Betfred)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

For some, the Olympics don’t start properly until athletics gets under way. USA and Jamaica will no doubt battle it out for gold in the sprints, with Jakob Ingebrigtsen perhaps fighting a lone battle against the cream of East African talent in the middle and long distances.

As mentioned in previous previews, the oddsmakers are mostly influenced by what has happened in the Diamond League this season. And while that’s fine for sprints, it can be a false friend over longer distances. Why? Well, any races over 800m and beyond have pacemakers with big incentives for fast times and even world records. With no pacemakers in championship races, they are often more tactical.

One race this very much applies to is the men’s 800m where Algeria’s Djamel Sedjati is odds-on after a couple of startling sub-1:42 performances in the Diamond League in Paris and Monaco. On both occasions, particularly in the latter, he produced striking finishing kicks to take victory.

MARCO AROP was sixth in Monaco having taken it up after the pacemaker dropped out. He was soon overhauled by Sedjati and came home in his own time. The reigning world champion had been unbeaten before that this season and I’m not keen to write him off on the basis of that run. In Paris, without a pacemaker, the Canadian may be able to control the pace and stay in front as he did in Budapest 12 months ago.

Emmanuel Wanyonyi may try and challenge him for the lead having gone sub-1:42 in the Kenyan trials running from the front. The Kenyan was a very close second in Paris, and he may decide that front-running does not give him the best chance of reversing form with Sedjati.

The upshot is I think there’s a good chance Arop gets to dictate the tempo and I would much rather be on him at 12/1 with Sky Bet than Sedjati at 4/6 or Wanyonyi at 5/2.

For the second Games running, Grant Holloway is a short order in the men’s 110m hurdles. The American is the three-time reigning world champion and as short as 1/6 to win Olympic gold this time. But pressure does funny things to athletes and I don’t see him as a certainty, especially with HANSLE PARCHMENT gradually coming into form.

The Jamaican famously won gold in Tokyo having almost missed the semi-finals after boarding the wrong bus. He may be 34 but he’s shown similar form to previous seasons, i.e. not a great deal. It’s been a bit of a mixed bag this year with one incredibly slow start, some trademark powerful finishes, and a bizarre look across before the finish line in the Jamaican trials which almost cost him a place in the top three.

However, he did take third to book his flight to Paris and I just have a feeling he will put it all together when it counts. That may count for nought if Holloway is at his best, but mistakes happen in sprint hurdles, and Parchment – who could be the Roger Kingdom to Holloway’s Greg Foster (one for the oldies) – is a big price at 12/1 with Betfred to come home in front again.

One event I did not expect to present a betting opportunity was the men’s 100m with NOAH LYLES all set to be a prohibitive-priced favourite. But then came Kishane Thompson’s 9.77 – with a following wind of 0.9 m/s – to win the Jamaican trials after clocking 9.82 in the heats and 9.84 in the semi-finals.

Those were undeniably impressive times and he backed that up with victory in Hungary earlier this month in 9.91, comfortably beating world silver medallist Letsile Tebogo and Akani Simbine. But Thompson lacks international experience and, in Lyles, he’s up against a hardened championship racer who rarely does more than enough.

Almost to prove a point, in London last weekend, Lyles ran a personal best 9.81 into a 0.3 m/s headwind. Taking the wind into account, that actually works out slightly better than Thompson’s 9.77. There is no doubt in my mind that the American star should be favourite and, while we’ve missed the 15/8 that was about earlier this week, 7/4 generally is still big enough about him completing the first leg of the sprint double.

Hudson-Smith no certainty in fascinating 400

The performance of the meeting in London was Matthew Hudson-Smith’s European record 43.74 in the 400m. It was a superb run which saw him slashed to around even-money for Olympic gold. I would love to see him win it, but he’s no price to do so. For one, he should have won the world title last year but Antonio Watson came from nowhere to beat him. And secondly, I’m still a bit worried about his fitness.

Despite competing in three championships in reasonably quick succession in 2022 – taking world bronze, Commonwealth Games silver and European gold – he has suffered his fair share of injuries over the years. And this is perhaps the deepest event of any in athletics at present with at least six men capable of winning gold.

We picked out STEVEN GARDINER in Tokyo and I see little reason to desert him this time. A hamstring pull ended his hopes in Budapest last year but he is unbeaten this season. His best time of 44.39 is a bit slower than the Briton, but the long-striding Bahamian has more to come and I expect him to produce it in Paris. With MHS having a habit of finding one too good, Gardiner is worth a punt at 4/1 with Sky Bet.

While MHS stole the headlines in London, CHARLIE DOBSON flew home to run a personal best of 44.23. The flame-haired youngster was the only man to cover the last 50m in under six seconds and looked relatively full of running at the end which means a) he got his fractions wrong, and b) there is plenty more to come.

Paris could be merely a learning experience for him but I’m happy to have a small dabble at 20/1 with Betfred as he is clearly a massive talent.

Only one event in the field took my eye and that was the discus. Mykolas Alekna broke the world record in April, although I seem to recall there being some doubt over it being ratified, and won his next four competitions including three in the Diamond League. His unbeaten run came to an end at the European Championships in Rome where he could only take bronze behind KRISTJAN CEH.

Alekna is still only 21 and, while he did win the European title in 2022, that Rome defeat makes me suspect he is vulnerable in big competitions. With reigning Olympic champion Daniel Stahl showing signs that he may be past his best, I think Ceh is best-placed to take advantage. The 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power is a fair price about the bespectacled Slovenian completing a full set of major titles.

Posted at 2055 BST on 25/07/24

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