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MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 52 preview and best bets
Will Dean previews UFC Vegas 52, where Jessica Andrade is backed to land a knockout victory over Amanda Lemos in a fight which shouldn't require judges.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 52, Saturday April 23
2.5pts Jessica Andrade vs Amanda Lemos to end via KO at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Andrade to win by KO/TKO in rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 13/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Clay Guida to win at 10/11 (General)
Brazilian brawlers
Saturday night’s main event is a superb display of matchmaking from the UFC brass, as two of the Strawweight division’s most prolific finishers lock horns. No fighter in the company’s 115lbs division has scored more knockout victories than JESSICA ANDRADE’s five, while Amanda Lemos has finished seven of her 12 professional career bouts with strikes.
A showdown of high-level strikers can sometimes result in a calculated chess match, but both competitors have shown glimpses of weakness that imply a finish is likely here.
While Andrade has proven herself capable of finishing opponents in any round, she is widely regarded as a slow starter who requires a few minutes before she starts firing on all cylinders. Previous opponents have been able to capitalise on this early window of opportunity, as both Rose Namajunas and Weili Zhang were able to knock-down and finish the Brazilian in recent Strawweight title fights.
Lemos will certainly be aware of such a trend, as she has been reliant on a collection of early knockout victories herself. With six of her wins coming from strikes in the first round, she will have to force the action early to capitalise on a superior opponent’s weakness. If Amandinha is unsuccessful in finishing the fight early, she could be in for a difficult task thereafter.
The subsequent rounds should tell a completely different story, as Andrade will eventually find her rhythm and march forward with a suffocating combination of power and pressure. Lemos's most recent performance showed some potential cardio concerns in the third round, but the pace her Brazilian counterpart pushes will certainly challenge this.
With opposite paths to victory for both women, a finish is plausible in any round of this fight. Considering both are primarily strikers and will relish the opportunity to engage in a brawl, backing the FIGHT TO END BY KO at 10/11 is the most valuable move to make for the main event.
Overall, Andrade is the more likely fighter to have her hand raised, to a smaller wager on ANDRADE TO WIN BY KO IN ROUNDS 3, 4 OR 5 at 13/2 provides the perfect gamble for some extra returns.
The Carpenter to build a win streak
Most fans of the sport will know CLAY GUIDA for his legendary fight against Diego Sanchez in 2009, which has since been inducted into the UFC’s Hall-of-Fame. The Carpenter really is a legend of the sport, having competed in 58 bouts across a 19 year career - but he shows no signs of slowing down any time soon. Despite now being 40 years old, the long-haired brawler has still remained competitive against younger opposition, winning five of his last 10 bouts.
Guida’s greatest weapons have always been his durability and cardio - often setting a ferocious pace that his opponents simply cannot hope to match. Some of his greatest wins, including his most recent victory over Leonardo Santos, have seen Guida rallying back after a difficult start. Against Claudio Puelles on Saturday night, a similar narrative can be expected.
Puelles is an interesting fighter to watch, as his UFC career has so far seen him face a particularly low calibre of opposition. Despite emerging from these with a 4-0 record, the Peruvian has struggled in some way in almost every fight, relying on a crafty kneebar submission on two separate occasions.
Guida is surely too savvy a veteran to be caught in such submissions, despite what his professional record may tell you. The 40-year-old has suffered 10 submission losses in his career, which looks to be a key factor in the eventual betting line in this fight. While the number may appear concerning, these losses have come from the likes of Jim Miller and Charles Oliveira - two of the most prolific submission artists the sport has ever seen.
If Guida can avoid getting caught in one of Puelles’ submission attempts, I fully expect him to outwork his foe in this fight. The Carpenter should use his erratic movement, suffocating pressure and superior wrestling ability to guide his way to a tepid yet clear decision victory. Backing GUIDA TO WIN at 10/11 should look like great value in hindsight.
Posted at 0920 GMT on 22/04/22
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