MMA betting tips: UFC London preview and best bets
MMA expert Will Dean put up three winners from three selections last week, and he's back to take a detailed look at UFC London on Saturday.
MMA betting tips: UFC London
3pts Aspinall v Volkov lasts under 3.5 rounds at 17/20 (Unibet)
1pt Dan Hooker to win by decision at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Molly McCann to win by decision at 13/10 (bet365)
3pts Gunnar Nelson to win by submission at evens (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Heavyweight Hazards
Tom Aspinall has been one of the most encouraging MMA prospects to fight out of England in some time. The Lancashire-born 28-year-old has credentials in both grappling and striking, having begun his martial arts journey with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu at just seven years old. After making the eventual switch to MMA, he even found himself sharpening his boxing skills with none other than Tyson Fury.
Aspinall is clearly a skilful and dangerous fighter, but some still have reservations about his longevity if a fight gets extended. Having taken less than seven minutes to score a finish in each of his professional victories, it is difficult to know what to expect from him come rounds three, four, and five. Incidentally, both of the Englishman’s losses were the two longest fights of his career - potentially adding credence to these concerns.
Alexander Volkov is no stranger to a five-round main event, having competed in five of them since 2017 (the second of which took place in London against Fabricio Werdum). Drago has proven his ability to score knockout victories in the later portions of fights, also offering similar striking metrics in the championship rounds.
Whether Aspinall scores yet another early knockout or Volkov drags him into deep waters, the UFC London main event is unlikely to hit the scorecards. With 42 of both fighters' combined 56 bouts ending inside the distance, backing the fight to last UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS at 17/20 is the preferred option over choosing a winner.
Hook, Line and Sinker
Arnold Allen’s eight fight winning streak inside the UFC has gone quietly unnoticed by many, most likely due to the competition in question and the extended breaks in between bouts. The Suffolk born fighter is certainly a well-rounded and talented competitor, but stepping inside the Octagon just once a year is not enough to generate the necessary star power required in the UFC today.
By comparison, since Allen’s signature win over Gilbert Melendez in July 2019 (three fights ago), Dan Hooker has competed against Paul Felder, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler and Islam Makhachev. The difference in competition between both fighters is astronomical, and the sheer gap in experience will be huge for Hooker on Saturday night.
Skill-for-skill,Hooker seems to have a slight advantage in most areas. The Hangman should be the one marching forward and throwing the higher volume of strikes, which, coupled with five inches of both height and reach, should see him get the better of Allen overall.
The betting line for this fight initially saw the New Zealander as the slight favourite, but the pendulum has since swung in Allen’s favour. UK fans are known for passionately packing their countrymen on home soil, but questions surrounding Hooker’s return to Featherweight have also been responsible for this.
Speculation over a fighter’s struggle with their weight cut usually ends up being unwarranted and Hooker looked great on the scales. A bet on HOOKER TO WIN BY DECISION at 3/1 should prove to have value by the end of the night, regardless of allegiances.
Mighty Meatball
Liverpool’s MOLLY MCCANN will be grateful to finally be fighting on her home turf again. Meatball feeds off the crowd’s energy like no one else in the UFC, and her recent performances behind closed doors at the UFC Apex have suffered as a result. McCann’s bout against Priscila Cachoeira in London in 2019 was potentially the highlight of the evening for UK fans, as all 20,000 were in her corner to rally her to victory as she put on one of the best performances of her career.
McCann’s brawling style is so effective for Women’s MMA as she has the perfect blend of aggression, volume and attitude. Despite being technically outmatched in most bouts, her grittiness always makes her look like the dominant fighter - marching forward and showing blatant disregard for her opponent’s power.
Such a style will be integral against Luana Carolina, who is the taller and rangier athlete. The Brazilian uses kicks and straight punches as her primary offence, so McCann’s natural desire to fight at close range will serve her well here. Both women have struggled with their defensive grappling in the UFC so far, but McCann is the more likely of the two to try and exploit this.
Overall this seems like a great stylistic matchup for McCann, but the home advantage should tilt things in her favour even more. Combat sports judging is often the subject of ridicule, but the unanimous noise of a sold out stadium cheering for every move Meatball makes, while simultaneously reacting unfavourably to Carolina, could easily alter their opinions subconsciously.
Neither woman has scored a finish in their combined 11 UFC bouts, so this fight is very likely to go to a decision. If that is the case, then the forward pressure, brawling style of McCann, as well as the unanimous voice of 20,000 people, should be enough to convince the judges to declare her the winner. Backing MCCANN TO WIN BY DECISION at 13/10 could be one of the best bets of the entire card.
Cold as Ice
Iceland’s Gunnar Nelson took an extended break from competing during the Coronavirus restrictions, and many seem to have forgotten just how impressive a fighter he really is. Gunni still remains one of the most qualified submission grapplers in the UFC today, having finished seven of his eight wins in the organisation via a choke.
Takashi Sato agreed to take this fight against Nelson on no more than a week’s notice, due to an injury to the original opponent. Ten’s stint in the UFC has been fairly inconsistent so far, but both of his losses have seen him outgrappled on the mat and eventually submitted.
With the short notice fight likely to affect his cardio, it seems that Sato has one round to score the knockout before Nelson pours on the pressure and secures yet another submission win. Although the Japanese fighter took just 48 seconds to land the fatal blow in his most recent win, he is not typically a huge one-punch-knockout type of striker. Nelson should be able to use his evasive Karate stance to stay out of danger for long enough, before pouncing on the opportunity to take this fight to the floor.
Gunni currently sits as a 1/5 favourite which, due to the long lay off, does seem quite steep. However, NELSON TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at evens is much more appealing, given how reliable the Icelandic grappler is to shoot for takedowns across the entirety of a fight.
Posted at 1235 GMT on 18/03/22
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