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MMA betting tips: UFC 270 preview and best bets
William Dean looks at the UFC 270 card, picking out two best bets to back on Saturday night/Sunday morning.
MMA betting tips: UFC 270
2pts Ciryl Gane to win by KO or Decision at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Brandon Moreno to win by Submission or Decision at evens (Sky Bet)
Baddest Man on the Planet
From the moment Ciryl Gane made his UFC debut, many predicted that he would compete for a championship one day. The Frenchman has been the leader of a new breed of MMA Heavyweights, showing supreme composure and a well-rounded skillset, not just depending on fight-ending power to see him victorious.
To quantify this, Bon Gamin has scored just two knockdowns in over 100 minutes of fight time, but he has also defended 62% of all strikes faced.
In addition, he has never been knocked down or hurt by any strikes inside the cage and is always the one dictating pace and distance. Put simply, Gane has been flawless in every second of his UFC career so far.
On the other half of the equation, the power of Francis Ngannou is unfathomable. The reigning Heavyweight Champion is widely regarded as the pound-for-pound hardest hitter in the UFC (potentially of all time), with all of his victories coming by stoppage in under 10 minutes.
By comparison, The Predator has landed eight knockdowns since his UFC debut, with each fight being stopped shortly after.
This fight is the epitome of technicality versus power, as the challenger’s penchant for defensive excellence competes against a champion that can end fights in the blink of an eye.
Re-visiting Ngannou’s first title fight against Stipe Miocic will give some confidence that Gane is the man to back on Saturday night.
In that bout, Miocic was able to weather the storm and put on a defensive masterclass in the first round, greatly reducing The Predator’s explosive speed and making his powerful strikes much easier to anticipate from that point onwards.
If Gane can replicate this and make Ngannou swing wildly at thin air for the opening round, then the belt will be the Frenchman’s to lose once the second stanza commences. Of course, he will have to fight perfectly to achieve this, but Gane has repeatedly shown to be defensively sound in the cage so far.
The first round is certainly going to be nerve-wracking, but backing GANE TO WIN BY KO OR DECISION at 10/11 could look like great value once all is said and done.
Third Time’s a Charm
Never before has the UFC seen a trilogy of fights take place in just over a year, but the competitiveness displayed by both Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figuieredo certainly warrants it.
The first fight was razor-thin and ultimately ended in a draw, with momentum shifting back and forth across 25 minutes and no clear winner determined.
The resulting rematch took place just six months later and, remarkably, Moreno dominated from bell-to-bell, winning via a third round submission.
Many eyebrows were raised at Figueiredo’s performance that night, with the Brazilian’s camp blaming a troublesome weight cut for his lacklustre performance.
Whilst that may be true, Moreno took the original title fight on short notice, and perhaps the gulf in skill was a result of the Mexican’s preparation and intelligent game planning on the second attempt.
Much like Francis Ngannou in the main event, Figueiredo’s reliance on finding a stoppage means he may have met his match against Moreno. Deus da Guerra has finished 17 of his 20 professional wins by stoppage, but does not necessarily have a style built to decisively win 25 minute fights by a judges’ decision.
His foe on Saturday night is ridiculously durable to strikes and is also the superior submission artist, meaning that Figueiredo is unable to rely on his best assets in his attempt to beat the Mexican.
One could argue that Moreno should be a bigger favourite in this fight, but some remain unsure whether his dominance in the rematch was a true display of their abilities, or the result of Figueiredo’s compromising weight cut.
Personally I am inclined to believe the former and see The Assassin Baby retaining his title in similarly dominant fashion. He showed himself to have a serious grappling advantage in the rematch, so backing MORENO TO WIN BY SUBMISSION OR DECISION at Evens is the way to go.
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (19/01/22)
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