MMA betting tips: UFC 264, Saturday July 10
2pts Dustin Poirier to win at 5/6 (Betfred)
1pt Over 2.5 Rounds, Dustin Poirier to Win by TKO/KO & Land the Most Significant Strikes at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Greg Hardy and Tai Tuivasa fight to go to decision at 13/8 (General)
1pt Illia Topuria to win by Decision at 13/5 (bet365)
The biggest star in all of mixed martial arts returns at UFC 264 as Conor McGregor looks to avenge his most recent loss to Dustin Poirier.
The Irishman’s popularity almost transcends the UFC and many more eyes will be tuning in to see Notorious in action. McGregor has always been highly motivated after suffering a defeat and will be looking for an early finish against The Diamond, whose durability and skillset only seems to get better with time.
The pay-per-view is filled with exciting bouts elsewhere on the card, with former NFL player Greg Hardy going to war against fan favourite Tai Tuivasa, as well as Stephen Wonderboy Thompson competing in an elite-level Welterweight bout with Gilbert Burns. The excitement all kicks off in the preliminaries, as highly touted prospect Illia Topuria will try to solve one of the trickiest puzzles in the sport as he takes on The Wizard, Ryan Hall.
Diamonds made under pressure
On Saturday night, Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will conclude a trilogy of exciting bouts that have spanned over almost seven years. It really does feel like the winner takes all this weekend, as both fighters have knockout victories over the other and a decisive winner will finally emerge. McGregor’s win came amidst his rise to the top in 2014, where a sharp left hand scored him a finish in under two minutes. The Diamond got his revenge in January of this year, dropping the Irishman in the second round and showing the developments he has made as a fighter since the first meeting.
The gameplan laid out in the rematch by Poirier’s team was a stroke of genius, identifying how heavy McGregor stands on his lead leg and implementing the calf kick to remove his mobility and explosiveness. McGregor maintained a wider, karate-like stance earlier in his career, but his dedication to boxing for his blockbuster fight against Floyd Mayweather altered The Notorious’ style. To prevent Poirier from having so much success with the leg kicks on Saturday night, the former double champion may have to go back to his roots and switch stances.
Despite the result, the Dublin-born superstar did have success in the opening round, landing some hard shots on Poirier and clearly wobbling the former interim-champion. The problem for McGregor is that his power is not as effective when fighting at 155lbs, and he did not seem to possess the ability to put The Diamond away. Poirier has made a career out of outlasting his opponents and coming on strongly in the latter rounds, and his cardio advantage over the Irishman is well-documented.
The American is simply no longer the fresh faced 25-year-old that McGregor fought in their first meeting, he is now one of the savviest veterans in the Lightweight division. Having survived that opening round against McGregor, as well as having outlasted and beaten Dan Hooker, Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway in recent years, Poirier can certainly have confidence that the fight is there for the taking if he is still standing after the initial five minutes. We may see McGregor have success in the early goings, but 5/6 seems like a generous price for Poirier to win, given that he should be the dominant fighter for most of the 25 possible minutes.
Sky Bet’s RequestABet markets are also offering Over 2.5 Rounds, Dustin Poirier to Win by TKO/KO & Land the Most Significant Strikes at 9/2, which looks appealing as an added wager. If McGregor can overcome the calf kicks then he should stay elusive enough to make it past the halfway point of the third round. The Diamond has also averaged more significant strikes per minute than McGregor in his UFC career, whilst absorbing less. This was the case in their last fight, with Poirier landing almost double the amount of his Irish opponent, and the fight going longer this time only increases his chances.
Topuria in it for the long Hall
Ryan Hall is an incredibly frustrating fighter to watch. With all the submission grappling talent in the world, he does not commit to takedowns and instead chooses to circle away from his opponent and throw big, spinning attacks to create distance. The Wizard is one of the best leg lockers in the sport and will frequently attempt to secure a submission from an Imanari roll, a low percentage outcome move that often results in Hall lying on his back, hoping his opponent will follow him to the ground.
Ilia Topuria is an impressive grappler in his own right, but the Georgian is the much more well-rounded of the two. In his last bout against Damon Jackson, another dangerous submission fighter, El Matador pressured heavily on the feet and demonstrated his improving striking with a first round knockout. Topuria’s decision not to initiate the grappling will translate well against Hall, as negating the submission threat takes away the majority of Hall’s paths to victory.
Topuria’s ability to dictate where this fight takes place should impress the judges, but competing against an unwilling dance partner like Hall will certainly make this a confusing and frustrating fight to watch. Hall has never been knocked out as, despite a very basic striking arsenal, his opponents have barely been able to land a heavy blow on him. Hall was at a disadvantage on the feet in each of his four UFC bouts, but his opponents landed an average of 0.96 significant strikes per minute against him.
Topuria’s aggression should see him look the better fighter over 15 minutes and his own grappling ability will keep him safe from The Wizard’s submission attempts. It is hard to knock out an opponent that does their best to avoid striking exchanges, so I think there is great value in Topuria emerging victorious by decision at 12/5.
Hardy and Tuivasa to go long
Some have been critical of Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy’s inclusion on the main card, as both are outside the Heavyweight division’s top 15 and have no wins over any real opposition of note. For others, the bout is an interesting stylistic clash between two dedicated strikers with potential. Hardy does his best work at range, taking advantage of his superior reach and firing a high volume of crisp, straight shots. Tuivasa, on the other hand, is often shorter than his opponents so looks to close the distance and throw heavy hooks.
The two could not be more different in their approach to boxing and the close betting line reflects this. Whilst the victor may look clear and obvious in hindsight, it is hard to know which fighter is going to win the range battle before the bout gets underway. We do however know that both men have been extremely durable in their UFC careers so far, both suffering one knockout loss each across 10 and 15 respective bouts.
Hardy, a former NFL defensive end, has not actually delivered on the powerful punches he demonstrated early on in his career. As his striking has developed since transitioning to MMA, he has opted for a more composed, point-striking approach that focuses predominantly on winning exchanges and convincing judges of his superiority. Tuivasa is still as wild a striker as ever, but the five inch reach disadvantage should prevent him from having too many chances to land heavy, clean shots.
Both men have also struggled with cardio issues in the past, which is understandable given their size. Incidentally, just one of their combined 17 finishes have come after the first round, which implies that the fight is much more likely to go to decision if a finish does not materialise after the first five minutes. As fatigue takes over and both men lose the explosiveness required to overcome strong chins on either side, a bet on the fight going to decision a 13/8 could prove to be good value.
Published at 0930 BST on 09/07/21
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
