It's the Championship Weekend in the NFL and Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets in his latest Touchdown Value column.
NFL betting tips: Championship Weekend
1pt Stefon Diggs & Travis Kelce to score a touchdown in Chiefs v Bills at 5/2
1pt Patrick Mahomes anytime in Chiefs v Bills at 7/2
1pt Davante Adams & Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown in Packers v Buccaneers at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sure, players like Alvin Kamara & Dalvin Cook look like they will score every single week – but at 1/2 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.
In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
Kansas City Chiefs v Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday at 23:40 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bets: Patrick Mahomes anytime at 7/2 | Bills defence/special teams anytime at 9/2 | Stefon Diggs & Travis Kelce to score a touchdown at 5/2
Patrick Mahomes anytime
Mahomes is the definition of sneaky mobile. You won’t see his athleticism, but he’ll pick up the yards. He now has three rushing touchdowns in his last three playoff games, and he’s good value to score against the Bills. When these two teams met in week six, Mahomes had ten rushing attempts (a season high) for 36 yards. He’s not afraid to run, and this Bills defence has shown weakness to quarterbacks on their feet – they’ve conceded seven rushing TDs to QBs, the joint second most in the NFL. This highlights a well-coached defence – picking up all available receivers, but it leaves gaping holes for quarterbacks to capitalise on.
Bills defence/special teams anytime
This Bills’ defence is on fire right now. Last week they held Lamar Jackson’s Ravens to just three points, whilst forcing three fumbles and taking an interception all the way for a touchdown. They show good value this weekend to find the end zone once more. Since mid-December, Mahomes has been loose with the football - throwing four interceptions and dropping three fumbles. If the Bills are to make it to the Super Bowl, they will need a big play from their defence.
Stefon Diggs & Travis Kelce to score a touchdown
In the playoffs this season, Diggs has produced back-to-back 100+ yard games and has a touchdown in each contest. You have to go all the way back to week four to find a game where Diggs didn’t see at least eight targets. He’s guaranteed to get volume, especially in a game where Kansas are likely to run up the score. The connection between Allen & Diggs is clear to see, and in the big moments you rely on your best players.
Travis Kelce has twelve touchdowns on the season, including five in his last five games. Last week he caught eight of his ten targets for 109 yards and a score – when Mahomes needs to move the chains Kelce is always there to make a big play. The Bills have allowed the second most yards in the league to TEs, on top of nine touchdowns to the position. Expect Kelce to find the end zone.
Green Bay Packers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: Sunday at 20:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bets: Davante Adams & Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown at 3/1 | Jamaal Williams to score anytime at 3/1
Davante Adams & Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown
Davante Adams is near unguardable. He has 19 touchdowns on the season, and he won’t stop on Sunday. He embarrassed the best corner in the league last weekend, Jalen Ramsey, with a simple pre-snap motion. This Bucs secondary improved last week (against Drew Brees’ questionable arm), but on the season they have sub-par to say the least. Green Bay’s offence is ferocious, and Adams will get the volume.
Fournette has scored two touchdowns in his last two games, carrying the ball 36 times for 156 yards whilst making nine catches for 83 yards. Ronald Jones is still practicing in a limited capacity, so expect Fournette to see this volume against Green Bay. On the season the Packers have conceded 20 total touchdowns to running backs, and have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last five games. The Rams never looked like they had a chance against the Packers, yet Cam Akers still managed to produce 90 rushing yards & score a touchdown.
Jamaal Williams to score anytime
Whilst Aaron Jones may get the bulk of the carries, it is Jamaal Williams who represents the most value. Last weekend Williams saw 12 carries, just two less than Jones. Crucially, six of those 12 carries came within the red zone – having the most red zone touches out of any Packer. Green Bay will continue to rotate their running backs – this 3/1 price for Williams is huge.
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (23/01/21)
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