David John predicts a close, low-scoring affair between Pittsburgh and Tennessee in the NFL on Thursday night.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (Friday 0125 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event and Action)
It would be fair to think that two teams who have won four games on the spin and sit atop their respective divisions would have reason to feel good about themselves but the Steelers and Titans will kick off on Thursday night not in particularly buoyant mood.
Pittsburgh may have a 7-2 record but there is still something not quite clicking, clearly illustrated by a scruffy 20-17 victory last weekend over a feeble Indianapolis outfit which required a Chris Boswell field goal as time expired to get them over the line.
They trailed 17-3 halfway through the third quarter before eventually clunking into gear with offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley screaming expletives at one point from the sideline at quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Perhaps a bit of rust remained coming off the bye week but one of the premier offenses in the NFL has still to hit 30 points in a game this season and are ranked a criminal 31st when it comes to scoring in the red zone.
Those sort of stats are even more remarkable considering Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown currently lead the league in rushing and receiving yards respectively.
This is more than likely going to be Roethlisberger’s last hurrah in a Hall of Fame career and at times they have required him to pull some magic out of the hat – his completion to Brown under pressure against the Colts with 45 seconds remaining was right out of the top drawer to help set up Boswell’s game-winner.
Perhaps that 17-point, fourth-quarter rally will spark this offense into life as they head into a favourable-looking second half of the campaign that sees them play five of their remaining seven games at Heinz Field but improvement is required ahead of hosting New England on December 17.
We should have much more of an idea of the pecking order in the AFC by the time that marquee match-up comes around but the Titans roll into town first also looking to establish themselves as a serious play-off contender.
They face a fourth straight outing against an AFC North rival and Sunday’s 24-20 success over Cincinnati was the first time since 2009 they have strung together four victories in a row.
Just like the Steelers, they have made winning games look difficult but head coach Mike Mullarkey has described his players as "resilient" and a touchdown from DeMarco Murray - his third of the game - just about sealed the deal against the Bengals.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota and productive tight end Delanie Walker have both shown their toughness lately playing through injuries so while progress has been far from smooth, this is a team starting to develop a winning habit in what looks like being a fascinating divisional battle down the stretch with Jacksonville.
They are 7-0 over the past two seasons in games decided by four points or fewer and a seven-point start on the spread in Pennsylvania looks attractive with another close encounter very much on the cards.
This has all the hallmarks of a really competitive affair but I doubt it will be high scoring in what should develop into a chilly slugfest between two physical outfits so investing on under 43.5 total points at even money is a sensible option to take.
Prediction: Tennessee 18-21 Pittsburgh
Recommended bets:
2pts under 43.5 total points at evens
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Posted at 1455 GMT on 14/11/17.
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