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Thursday night NFL: Free betting tips and odds for Kansas City at New England
David John says Chris Hogan appeals in the first touchdown scorer market when New England host Kansas City in Thursday's NFL season-opener.
Kansas City at New England (Friday, 0130 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)
The last time we saw some meaningful NFL, the Patriots pulled a rabbit out of the hat to win their fifth Super Bowl after being under the thumb for three quarters against Atlanta.
The seemingly unstoppable triumvirate of owner Robert Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady are favourites to win it all again and the long road to Minnesota next February starts at Foxboro on Thursday.
They are strong eight-point favourites against a solid if unspectacular Chiefs outfit that made the play-offs after winning the AFC West and were narrowly ousted from the post-season 18-16 by Pittsburgh.
They were one penalty away from potentially taking that game to overtime so this will be a significant opening test for the hosts.
Brady remains the catalyst for New England at 40 years old and passing for almost 400 yards in the Super Bowl hardly suggests a player on the wane with his plan, barring serious injury, to keep on going into his mid-40s and simply confirm what we already know – he is the greatest of all time.
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Some personnel additions over the summer will add a new dimension to the offense with wide receiver Brandin Cooks providing a genuine deep threat for Brady for the first time since the days of Randy Moss while Dwayne Allen and Rex Burkhead represent more intermediate targets to help Brady move the chains more methodically.
Brady’s most reliable target, Julian Edelman, is not available this season having suffered a serious knee injury in pre-season but there is no better team when it comes to overcoming issues and I don’t expect New England to really miss a beat in the passing game.
Kansas City do have the ability to make this a difficult night for Brady with a defense that is almost 100 percent healthy for the first time in a couple of seasons as key components Justin Houston and Derrick Johnson are back from serious injury.
The duo have been busy in pre-season although I doubt they will be quite up to game speed yet as both need competitive reps but that will not stop Brady ensuring two very dynamic pass rushers are accounted for on every play.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is a past master given time to prep for a game so will have been mulling this one over all summer.
His plans have been somewhat scuppered by a recent long-term injury to Spencer Ware which leaves them thin at running back so rookie Kareem Hunt is expected to take the bulk of the carries backed up by Charcandrick West and CJ Spiller.
I would expect Alex Smith to make few errors as usual at the quarterback position over the season but whether he can guide this team to a Super Bowl is under scrutiny.
We have seen a glimpse of the future in rookie Patrick Mahomes and it looks very bright indeed but the plan remains to let Smith do his thing and give his understudy time to develop.
Foxboro is a tough venue for any visiting team but a pleasant late-summer evening obviously takes away one advantage the Pats have compared to a frigid night in December or January.
I would not be surprised at all to see Kansas City put up a competitive display but the bet I like is Chris Hogan to score a touchdown anytime for the hosts.
An extremely versatile receiver, he has already started to develop a fine chemistry with his quarterback and can expect an increased workload with Edelman out of the equation.
He has already delivered big performances in the play-offs last season and has additional speed to offer Brady compared to Edelman so Hogan represents a tempting wager to find the end zone first.
Prediction: Kansas City 20-24 New England
Recommended bets: Thursday NFL
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Posted at 1230 BST on 06/09/17.