The Super Bowl is a unique event, and America’s greatest spectacle provides a host of weird and wonderful betting opportunities each and every year.
NFL betting tips: Super Bowl LV
2pts Over 4.5 total match sacks at Evens
1pt The opening kick-off to not be a touchback at 9/4
1pt Any non-QB to throw a touchdown at 11/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Ahead of this year’s clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs, Ross Williams has you covered from the coin toss to the post-game celebrations.
The opening kick-off to not be a touchback
Sky Bet odds: 9/4
This seems like a real longshot when you realise that the inverse selection is 1/3 on the current market, but go with me on this one. It will be worth it.
Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City have ranked very highly in terms of touchback percentage over the season and both of the kick-off specialists that will take to the field on Sunday are renowned for their powerful leg strength.
But, the Super Bowl is not like any other game, and there’s an interesting caveat that comes with the NFL finale that makes this 9/4 shot a sneakily good play.
Here’s the thing.
Before every standard NFL game, the equipment staff of the two competing teams are given a period of time, pre-kickoff, to ‘break in’ the match ball.
That may seem odd – and frankly, it is – but it’s a practise that has been routine in the NFL for years and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that roughing the football up really does make it more kickable.
The ball can be beaten into a slightly friendlier and more aerodynamic shape in that vital half an hour, and roughing up the exterior of the pigskin can naturally create a reduction in drag. Hence, these balls generally go slightly further than brand new ones, when kicked off the tee to start a game.
However, before the Super Bowl every year, the equipment staff are not provided this luxury.
Due to the significance of the showpiece annual event, it is custom for the game ball to be immediately sent to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, in order for it to be displayed in their museum.
Naturally, the curators of the Hall of Fame prefer the ball to be as aesthetically-pleasing as possible when it arrives in Ohio – so the ball in question isn’t tampered with at all before the game, and is only actually used for one play, the opening kickoff.
It’s practically ceremonial.
The ball that will sit on the tee at approximately 11:30PM (GMT) on Sunday evening will be pristine, fresh off the production line and – according to former Indianapolis Colts punter Pat McAfee – the worst ball an NFL kicker will encounter in their career.
So, what does this mean?
Six of the last seven Super Bowls have now begun with a kickoff return, rather than a touchback. This could be coincidence of course, but Super Bowl teams generally have good kickers on their rosters, and the vast majority have simply failed to replicate the kicking distance they manage routinely in the regular season.
I’m willing to wager there’s more to that than just mere coincidence.
If anyone can breach the endzone with the first kick of the game, Chiefs specialist Harrison Butker could well be the man.
But even so, in that scenario of Tampa Bay receiving the ball first, they will be keen to start proceedings on the front foot by being aggressive – making a return likely even if the ball is destined for the painted area.
While ever a price of 9/4 is offered, I’m willing to side with recent history.
Over 4.5 total match sacks
Sky Bet odds: Evens
This may well be my favourite bet of the entire Super Bowl.
The bookmakers have set the bar extremely low at 4.5 sacks for the big game, and the EVS value should have you licking your lips.
For context, the Tampa Bay tandem of Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett combined for five sacks themselves in the NFC Championship game, and that was against a Packers offensive line that was in much better shape than the unit they will face on Sunday.
The Chiefs have lost star linemen Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz to injury and will therefore be forced to play inexperienced, stop-gap players at both tackle positions. This is simply asking for trouble against one of the very best pass-rushing defences in the NFL.
JPP and Barrett may well crack the over themselves if they have a similar day, and that’s before we even consider the rest of the Bucs’ front seven and the threat the Chiefs pose defensively with the likes of Frank Clark and company.
All told, the two Super Bowl teams combined for nine sacks in their respective title games a fortnight ago, so I feel very confident about the chances of this even-money shot.
Any non-QB to throw a touchdown
Sky Bet odds: 11/1
Anyone who watched the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl LII can tell you the importance of brave play-calling in the biggest game of them all.
On that night, the underdog Eagles decided to dig deep into the playbook to surpass the rampant Patriots, and the call paid off.
The ‘Philly Special’ was born, Nick Foles became immortal and a relatively-unknown tight end named Trey Burton joined an elite club of players to have thrown a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
On Sunday, the Buccaneers face a similarly uphill task against the reigning champion Chiefs, and it got me wondering whether we could see something of the same ilk.
We all know Bruce Arians’ offence will have to be aggressive throughout this game, and the likelihood of them having to chase a Patrick Mahomes lead at points is extremely high.
In that case, why not throw everything they have at the Chiefs?
Tom Brady is playing exceptionally well for a 43-year-old, but he has still shown signs of decline at times, and particularly in the second half of games.
If – or indeed, when – Tampa find themselves down by a score or two in this game, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Arians dial up something on the creative side, unexpectedly taking the ball out of his quarterback’s hands.
Brady is no stranger to non-QB throwing plays, having watched former teammate Julian Edelman do the honours multiple times back in New England. Plus, the Bucs have some sneaky arm talent in their offensive weaponry.
While also being one of the most talented receivers the league has ever seen, Antonio Brown has remarkably thrown six passes in his NFL career, completing three of them. One of those passes resulted in a touchdown.
On the other side of the ball, there’s also opportunity for some outside-the-box thinking. Andy Reid is one of the game’s most creative offensive minds, and he’s made a career out of taking chances in dangerous situations.
Just a matter of weeks ago, Mahomes attempted to catch a touchdown pass that would have been reminiscent of the ‘Philly Special’, and the Chiefs have more than one alternative passer. Both Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce have NFL passes on their stat-sheets, so consider some madness from Kansas City a genuine possibility.
This one’s an obvious gamble, but I love the value and would consider a small play.
The team that loses the coin toss to win the Super Bowl
Sky Bet odds: 10/11
The Super Bowl seems to be the only occasion of the sporting year where the opening coin toss has become a major betting event in itself.
But I prefer a slightly different route to the norm, keeping the fun going long after the coin is flipped.
Rather than going for pure chance, past Super Bowls throw up some startling figures around the importance of the opening toss, or should I say, the unimportance.
Indeed, the last six teams that have won the coin toss before the big game have gone on to lose the Super Bowl.
Perhaps it’s stage-fright, perhaps it’s simply bad decision-making.
It’s difficult to put your finger on exactly why this trend has presented itself, and there may not even be an actual tangible reason, but the facts are there in black and white so – if I was to join in on the coin toss market – this is absolutely the road I’d go down.
If Tampa Bay were to win the toss (and historically NFC teams have been lucky significantly more than their AFC counterparts over the past 54 years) you’d have to feel pretty good about this one.
The Gatorade shower to be orange
Sky Bet odds: 6/5
If – like me - you’re backing the Kansas City Chiefs to win their third world championship on Sunday, this seems like a pretty smart play as an opportunity to double up your success.
Twelve months ago, in the moments following the Chiefs’ comeback win over the 49ers, head coach Andy Reid became the latest victim of one of the NFL’s long-standing rituals as he was doused by his players in visibly orange Gatorade.
Sports stars are renowned for their superstitious tendencies and often prefer to leave nothing to chance, so would it make any sense for the Chiefs to opt for a different flavour on their return to the Super Bowl, knowing the significance of the annual tradition?
I tend to think not.
Although the red/pink option at 10/3 is naturally tempting due to the colour schemes of the two opposing teams, it reminds me of a trap everyone fell into a year ago, so I would prefer to be safe and go with the Chiefs’ old faithful.
For those in Tampa Bay’s camp this weekend, it’s perhaps worth noting that back in 2003, former head coach Jon Gruden got a soaking of his own when his team claimed the Buccaneers’ first and only Lombardi Trophy at Super Bowl XXXVII.
The Bucs’ Gatorade of choice that day was purple (7/1), so if we assume the Tampa Bay equipment staff are familiar with the history of the franchise, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Bruce Arians taking a purple-tinted shower if Tom Brady defeats the Chiefs and the odds to win an incredible seventh Super Bowl on Sunday.
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (05/02/21)
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