Super Bowl prop bets: Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers tips and analysis
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out a range of best bets ahead of the Super Bowl, including a 700/1 play in the MVP market.
Super Bowl betting tips: Chiefs v 49ers
4pts Opening kick to be a touchback – no at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Travis Kelce 75+ receiving yards at 21/20 (bet365)
2pts Isiah Pacheco 75+ rushing yards at 27/20 (bet365)
2pts Justin Watson under 1.5 receptions at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
2pts Rashee Rice under 66.5 receiving yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Brock Purdy over 25 rushing yards at 3/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Dre Greenlaw Super Bowl MVP at 700/1 (Sky Bet)
Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers
- Kick-off time: Sunday 23:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Spread: San Francisco -2 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 47.5 points @ 10/11
Travis Kelce over 75 receiving yards
Kelce’s line for this game is set at 70.5 receiving yards. He’s cleared that line in 12 straight playoff games, stretching back to the 2021 season. In that span he’s gone over 75 yards in eleven of those games, and over 100 yards in five of them.
He’s Patrick Mahomes’ top target and that’s even more true as of this season. We saw some early-season rust from Kelce, but he still saw over 20% of his quarterbacks throws, and that number has jumped up to 29% in the postseason.
The 49ers have conceded the 8th most targets to tight ends on the season, and we just saw a huge game from Sam LaPorta last time out – going off for 9 catches and 97 yards, team highs for the Lions. If you’re predicting a big game from Kelce, it’s also worth taking a look at him for MVP at 16/1.
Brock Purdy over 25 rushing yards
Purdy has averaged 6.28 rushing yards per game in 25 regular season games, but he has an average of 17.2 rushing yards per game in five postseason starts – including a huge 48 yards last time out.
He has an incredible knack of evading pressure and moving the chains most when it counts. The Chiefs have conceded an average 20 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, and in the last Super Bowl they gave up 70 yards to Jalen Hurts.
Isiah Pacheco over 75 rushing yards
Pacheco has gone over 66.5 rushing yards in his last four games, including all three playoff games. Throughout the regular season the 9ers defence ranked as the number one rush defence – but they faced the fewest rushes against them this year.
As of late they have been gashed on the ground, Montgomery and Gibbs racked up 138 yards, and before that Aaron Jones totalled 108 yards. Pacheco ran for 76 yards against the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl – there’s no reason why he can’t repeat that feat.
Justin Watson under 1.5 receptions
Watson has recorded one reception or less in four out of his last five games. You can extend that back even further – to just two games with 2+ receptions in his last 10. He’s losing out on snaps to fellow WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling too and faces a 49ers defence who use cover-4 at a top 10 rate – a zone defence.
Watson averages 45% fewer targets when facing zone this season when compared to man coverage. Take the under.
Rashee Rice under 66.5 receiving yards
Speaking of that zone defence – Rice averages 30% fewer targets against zone defence than man. In the Chiefs' last two playoff games he’s posted 46 and 47 yards. The 9ers have been stout against the pass when it matters, and Charvarius Ward will focus on locking up rice.
Dre Greenlaw Super Bowl MVP
When scrolling through the MVP market, Greenlaw’s price stood out as being incredibly generous. Just two games ago against the Packers he put in a performance that would have been worthy of the hardware: eight tackles, one tackle for loss, two interceptions and two pass deflections.
Ten years ago, Malcom Smith, fellow linebacker, won this award for the Seahawks, in a game where he had an interception, made nine tackles, and recovered a fumble. In a game of two incredible defences, both quarterbacks may struggle, opening the door for other candidates.
Greenlaw is integral to the 9ers – expect him to make an impact at a simply incredible price.
Opening kick to be a touchback – no
This prop needs to be credited to fellow Sporting Life NFL contributor Ross Williams – who has had great success with this bet over the years.
A huge 49 of the 57 Super Bowl opening kickoffs were returned, including 26 of the last 30. The only four to result in a touchback over the last three decades were kicked indoors.
Pat McAfee has shared insight as to why Super Bowl kicks have such a high propensity of being returned – as kickers are usually seen handling the ball ahead of the game, allowing them to ‘break in’ the leather of the ball.
However, at the Super Bowl, the ball is carried out fresh, ready to be kicked away before being collected for preservation in the Hall of Fame, meaning it is supposedly much harder to kick. This means the ball will not travel as far – so a return is more likely.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 06/02/24
ALSO READ: Ross Williams' Super Bowl preview
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