Matt Temple-Marsh explores where Super Bowl LVII will be won and lost, offering key betting pointers along the way.
NFL betting tips: Super Bowl LVII
2pts Jalen Hurts to be Super Bowl MVP at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Jalen Hurts over 10.5 rushing attempts at Evens (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Patrick Mahomes under 20.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Travis Kelce 8+ receptions & 79+ receiving yards - Chris Jones NOT to record a sack at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Any member of the Philadelphia Eagles defence to win MVP at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
The two #1 seeds from each conference meet in a clash of juggernauts for this year’s Super Bowl.
At face value we have two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL, Mahomes vs Hurts (the first ever Super Bowl between two black quarterbacks), but there’s playmakers on both sides of the ball, all over the field.
Here’s the keys to victory, and what to look out for.
Love Hurts
The rise of Jalen Hurts has been a joy to watch.
From the embarrassing play-off loss last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-31 with two interceptions), to the Herculean heights of this season - with an MVP worthy campaign & his first Super Bowl appearance.
Hurts is arguably the best dual threat quarterback in the league. His ability as a passer has grown and grown this season (WR AJ Brown broke the Eagles’ receiving yards record), but his rushing sets the tone for Philadelphia as the best rushing attack in the league.
In the NFC Championship game, Hurts broke the record for most rushing TDs by a QB (15), as the Eagles broke the record for rushing TDs in a season (39).
On the year the Chiefs have allowed the fifth most rushing yards to QBs, alongside four TDs to the position – with the RPO that Philadelphia employs, we can expect plenty more rushing from Hurts as he exploits a soft matchup.
Mahomes' injury worries
Sure, a one-legged Mahomes still may be the best passing quarterback in the NFL – but it will affect his game massively.
Against the Jaguars, Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain – an injury that usually takes six weeks minimum for a full recovery. This extra week of rest will serve him well, but he still won’t be at full fitness.
In the AFC Championship game, we saw the quarterback limping at times, and grimacing when having to stretch his ankle – specifically when rolling out of the pocket (a huge component of his game – no quarterback made more passes outside of the pocket than Mahomes).
It goes under the radar how athletic and nimble he is – routinely picking up first downs with his legs. In his two Super Bowl appearances he’s racked up 14 rushes for 62 yards & one touchdown – but in his last two games he’s had just six carries for 16 yards.
This means we can expect much less running, and even more passing from Mahomes. He faces the toughest secondary in the NFL (179 passing yards allowed/game), which reminds me of the Bucs' Super Bowl winning side. In that contest, Mahomes attempted a huge 49 passes but managed just 270 yards.
This Eagles secondary is the best of the best - it could be a long day for the Kansas City man
Total defence
The Philadelphia Eagles defence is simply amazing – on every level.
They lead the league in sacks (70, just two away from tying the all-time record), and they have allowed the fewest passing yards per game.
In the play-offs they have eight sacks (1st), four turnovers (2nd) and have conceded just 14 points total (fewest allowed).
Doubters may scoff at the NFC Championship game where the second half saw the 49ers without a quarterback – but Haason Reddick’s 2 sacks came early against a fully healthy 9ers offence.
Reddick has been the most impactful free agency signing this season with 19.5 sacks on the year & six forced fumbles – with two sacks, a forced fumble & fumble recovery last week – and could easily put himself in Super Bowl MVP discussion.
But there’s so many players on this defence that could be vying for this award, that I’m tipping the entire unit. Specifically, from the secondary.
CJ Gardner-Johnson leads the league in interceptions with 6 picks and boasts nine pass deflections too. He’s dominant in the run game with huge play potential.
Then Darius Slay & James Bradberry have allowed the least yards per coverage snap out of any cornerbacks this season. It’s the best CB tandem in the league, and they face a Kansas City WR room lacking star names.
This defence has 31 turnovers on the year – expect more on Sunday.
The Kelce dream
Donna Kelce’s dream has come true – both her sons Travis & Jason face off in the Super Bowl – the first ever Super Bowl with brothers competing against each other.
Not only that, but the two sons are arguably the best at their positions.
Jason Kelce is one of the top centre’s the NFL has ever seen. He made the 1st-team All Pro team for the fifth time this season – and he hasn’t allowed a quarterback hit since week 12 of the 2020 season.
The Eagles man has an 88.5 PFF grade this season, but now faces Chris Jones – one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league. Jones finally managed his first ever post-season sack last time out, as he racked up two sacks on the sorry Bengals offensive line.
However, the Eagles O-line is as good as it gets – and I’m backing Jason to win this battle.
Then Travis is having the best season of his career – with a huge 15 TDs. He is a target monster, seeing a 31% target share in the playoffs thus far (25 targets through two games).
Last time out, wide receivers Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman all had to leave the game early – and they won’t be at 100% for the Super Bowl.
This only increases Kelce’s chances – and the Eagles are middle of the pack against TEs, allowing 81 catches to the position (13th most in the league). Mahomes will trust his favourite target to move the chains – we can expect plenty of Travis on Sunday.
Who wins Super Bowl LVII?
There is simply just too much talent on the Philadelphia Eagles team for me to turn them down.
Their back-up offensive & defensive linemen would be starters for the majority of the league. Plus, they come out hot – they are the highest scoring first half team in the league by some margin (18 points/first half).
Their bruising running game then whittles down the clock and helps bolster the lead.
Despite Mahomes greatness, I believe his injury will be too much to overcome, and the Eagles hoist their second ever Super Bowl.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 27-17 Kansas City Chiefs
Odds correct at 1735 GMT (06/02/23)
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