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Super Bowl LIV betting preview: Prediction, best bets and touchdown tips for San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs in Miami Super Bowl
After a long, hard season the Chiefs and 49ers will battle it out for the Lombardi Trophy, and Paul Higham thinks his pre-season picks can win a thriller in Miami.
Recommended bets
3pts Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5pts) to win the Super Bowl at 10/11
1pt Travis Kelce & Raheem Mostert to both score TDs at 11/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
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- Super Bowl LIV - San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs
- February 2, 11.30pm
- Match odds: 49ers 11/10 | Chiefs 4/9
It’s why we’re all here, why NFL followers in the UK have been staying up late for the last five months to watch all the gridiron action – and the reward is the perfect match-up for Super Bowl LIV as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Miami.
Wherever you look, this game has everything you could ever want with undoubtedly the two best teams in the NFL squaring off – the league’s best defensively dominant team against the most high-octane attack under the guidance of arguably the league’s brightest star in Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.
Now, I do have to mention that the Chiefs were the pre-season selection to win the Super Bowl, so if you were clever (or brave) enough to follow that then, with the 49ers the 11/10 outsiders it makes sense to have some sort of cover on San Francisco so you can sit back and enjoy the game knowing some returns are coming.
For the majority, though, we’ll take this as we should - a one-off game between two excellent teams where it is desperately difficult to pick a winner.
We've got two innovative and popular coaches at opposite ends of their career but under similar pressure with Chiefs veteran Andy Reid looking to finally earn the Super Bowl ring his career deserves, and 49ers newcomer Kyle Shanahan eyeing redemption after being Atlanta’s offensive coordinator when they blew a 28-3 lead a couple of years ago.
Both teams are just so, so good and in such different areas that there are arguments and counter-arguments to be made at almost every position on the field – Kansas City have the all-stars on offence, but San Francisco are an all-star team with hardly a weak link in sight, and that’s where the problem lies when trying to decipher this most difficult of Super Bowl conundrums.
The good news, for fear of tempting fate, is that we’re almost guaranteed a great game, for all the talk of San Francisco’s fierce defence, they average more points per game than the Chiefs – who we know can score touchdowns in the blink of an eye.
As always these big games will come down to who wins their head-to-head battles and who can cope with the enormous pressure and extraordinary spectacle that surrounds this game of all games. We know what they can do on the field, but how they handle themselves off it, in particular during the lengthy half-time show, can often be crucial.
The great thing about this Super Bowl is that both teams seem to be on the same trajectory – we haven’t got an ageing powerhouse needing to win before their Super Bowl window closes, and we haven’t got a shock team that has ridden their luck to make it to the big dance.
No, these teams have young, hungry, capable talent and could be the teams to beat for years to come, and that’s just another reason why it’s so tight to call with the Chiefs just 1.5 point favourites. The line, as small as it is, doesn’t sit quite right, personally, as I’d have made the Niners favourites as a more complete team, but that’s the Mahomes factor.
And that’s the big question when considering the winner, can the 49ers stop, or slow down, this new NFL star, who seemingly just gets better the bigger the game. He’s got a rocket arm and shifty movement and although the Niners pass rush with Nick Bosa is electric, the fact he can score so many points in such a short space of time is a huge plus.
Yes, the Chiefs have to slow down San Francisco’s run game, you’ll go a long way to see a more concerted team commitment to running the football than this group – from linemen to receivers they all seemingly get as much joy in smashing the opposition in the mouth and creating corridors of power for Raheem Mostert to run through than garnering individual glory.
Slowing that run game takes a team effort and not just Chris Jones, excellent as he is as a run stopper, but after they kept Derrick Henry in check maybe there is hope. The game plan for Kansas City has to be to force 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo to win the game, with many claiming he can’t after letting the run game do the talking throughout the season.
I wouldn’t say Jimmy G is underrated, I just don’t think we’ve got anywhere near seeing how good he can be, quite simply because San Francisco haven’t needed to really let the handbrake off, save for a monster game against the Saints.
🏆 A dominant @49ers beat the @packers to make #SuperBowlLIV in Miami
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) January 20, 2020
🏹 The @Chiefs will be waiting, but who wins?#GBvsSF #NFCChampionship #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/aDCq8jjs9D
Just because we haven’t yet seen him being great, doesn’t mean he can’t be great, and unless they have their way with the Chiefs with some ground and pound, then surely we’ll get an answer in Miami – whether the man himself can provide those answers is a big question.
My guess is he’s good, but there’s no chance he can keep pace with Mahomes if he gets in full flow, and that to me is the cornerstone for this entire Super Bowl puzzle - the Chiefs defence is key, but it’s not the key, that has to be Mahomes.
‘Defence wins championships’ is a mantra I’ve often quoted back myself, and in these attack versus defence Super Bowls it’s usually the defensive side of the ball that prospers – Seattle’s domination of Payton Manning’s Denver Broncos immediately springing to mind.
Two things on that, though, this San Francisco defence is not Seahawks great, yet! And Manning at that stage was not even in the same league as Mahomes. The arm strength, the improvisation, and the mobility combine to make quarterbacking poetry.
And with a compliment of track stars at receiver able to stretch the field and a dominant tight end for intermediate throws over the middle and provide a red zone threat they really do have an offence for the ages.
Patrick Mahomes doesn't even need to look at where he's throwing the ball.
— Paul Higham (@SportsPaulH) December 9, 2018
This guy is remarkable!#ChiefsKingdom#BALvsKCpic.twitter.com/KkqPaLyHHS
This will not be a blowout, this will be tight, a blow-for-blow slugfest and in my mind it comes down to the final possession or two when both teams will likely have a chance to win it – and in that scenario prevails then in my mind there’s only one winner.
San Francisco have the complete team, but Kansas City may just have the most complete player of a generation – in a high-scoring battle of points that should cover the pre-game spread of 54, the Mahomes era can officially start in Miami in what could well be one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory.
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