NFL Wildcard Weekend betting tips, points spreads, accumulators and best bets
Ross Williams looks at the final four games of Wildcard Weekend with Tampa Bay Buccaneers fancied for points.
NFL betting tips: Wildcard Weekend
2pts Tampa Bay Buccaneers to score 21+ points at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tuesday, 0115 GMT
A couple of months ago, it would have been crazy to suggest that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could beat the Philadelphia Eagles in a wildcard game. At the time, the Eagles were dominant, 10-1 and the prospect of even having to play in the first week of the playoffs would have been considered a longshot.
But since then, the wheels have fallen off in a simply staggering way.
The reigning NFC champions lost five of six games, the Eagles’ defence disintegrated and Nick Sirianni’s job security has even been brought into question.
Star receiver A.J. Brown removing references to the Eagles on his social media profiles in the last couple of days is just the latest chapter in what has been an absurd second half of the season.
Philadelphia are still – just about – favourites to beat the Bucs on Monday night but the 2.5-point spread suggests that a game that would have been simple to pick in November is now anything but a foregone conclusion.
Picking the Bucs to cover the spread is certainly in consideration thanks to the drama on the opposing sideline, but it feels like there are more certain outcomes out there, at a similar price.
The Buccaneers to score 21+ POINTS in the game, for example.
Although their season-long average sits just shy at 20.5 points scored per game, this is still in their wheelhouse because they haven’t had a match-up all season that suits them as well as the Eagles’ defence.
A year removed from setting league standards, Philadelphia have been historic on defence for very different reasons this season.
Despite winning eleven games and never really fearing about their playoff status, the Eagles ended the regular season with the third-leakiest defence in the entire NFL, surpassed only by the Commanders and Cardinals. This is akin to a top-six Premier League team conceded more goals than a relegated side over the course of a season. It’s odd and really shouldn’t be happening.
They also possess the second-worst defence in the league against the pass, which is music to the ears of Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and co. on the Buccaneers offence.
Before a cue-on-the-rack performance against the hapless Panthers last week, where the Bucs stretched out to a 9-0 lead and knew their efforts for the day had been sufficient, Tampa racked up 106 points in their previous four games, averaging out at 26.5 per contest.
Of those four opponents, two are among the NFL’s top-ten defensive units and all of them have conceded at least 55 points fewer than the Eagles this season.
Such is the big-game ability of Jalen Hurts and some of Philadelphia’s other big names, we can’t entirely rule out a sudden return to form for the Eagles but selecting Tampa to put at least 21 points on the board – in a home game – feels like a strong pick to round off Super Wildcard Weekend.
Previous betting tips
3pts Josh Allen (Bills) to score a touchdown at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Green Bay Packers (+7.5) to win at 5/6 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)
2pts Los Angeles Rams to beat Detroit Lions at 7/5 (General)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
- *Rescheduled to Monday 2130 GMT*
Much like Saturday night’s game in Kansas City, the elements are set to have a big say in Buffalo’s hosting of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. (Note: Written and published prior to rescheduling)
The hottest team in the NFL, Buffalo are obvious favourites to progress and – with TJ Watt out for Pittsburgh – the only surprise is that the handicap has stayed below double figures.
After a spluttering start to the year that surprised many, the Bills have turned it on in a big way down the back-straight of the season and anyone who chanced an outright bet midway through the year will be clutching their over-priced Buffalo ticket with a smirk on their face.
JOSH ALLEN’s Bills are the contender they were prophesised to be back in September and it’s tough to see how Pittsburgh flip the script.
Had conditions been brighter, a handicap play on the Bills would have been the preference. On recent form, Buffalo look ten points better than their opponents and I’d have been happy to side with the biggest favourites of the playoff weekend, particularly with the omission of Watt glaring.
However, weather is the great leveller in many sports and the NFL is no different. At this point in time, it’s hard to know exactly what impact the Western New York snow drifts will have come Sunday afternoon, but the outlook isn’t great. On Saturday morning, the Bills were appealing to volunteers to help them shovel snow from the field and the open-air terraces.
As such it's tough to feel comfortable with an outright selection on the game. Further bad news on the forecast front may bring us to a complete no-bet situation, but with the NFL adamant that – at least – the game won’t be postponed, I think it’s safe enough to opt for a selection that has landed on 12 occasions already this season.
Allen loves rushing in for touchdowns in even the most pristine conditions so, with ball security high on the agenda this week, I’d be amazed if the star quarterback doesn’t have at least a couple of opportunities close to the goal line. He’s run in eight touchdowns in his last six games and this is prime territory to add a ninth.
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
- Monday, 0100 GMT
Want a storyline? How about two quarterbacks that swapped places with each other, facing off in Detroit’s first home playoff game in 30 years?
The narratives around the LA RAMS’ visit to the Lions on Sunday night write themselves. The Lions – with the Rams’ former #1 overall draft pick Jared Goff at quarterback – have enjoyed their best regular season in decades, but that only adds to the weight of expectation.
Lions fans have suffered for an awfully long time. They haven’t celebrated a playoff victory since January 1992 and although that means the celebrations will be monumental if things go their way this weekend, it also means that the nervousness will be palpable around Ford Field.
It’s for that reason (and a few others) why I fancy the Rams to play spoiler.
Matthew Stafford was the Detroit Lions franchise for so many years but, having tasted Super Bowl success with Los Angeles in the seasons since his trade, he’ll be keen to make a statement on his return to his old stomping ground.
He has the tools to do so too, with Cooper Kupp in good form and rookie Puka Nacua a week removed from officially becoming the most productive first-year receiver of all time. The Rams went under the radar for much of the season – while playing second-fiddle to the 49ers in the NFC West – but make no mistake, they’re a serious team and, importantly, they know what it takes to win in the postseason.
Since week 11, LA have won seven out of eight and averaged 25.75 points per game. In the one game they lost, to the impressive Baltimore Ravens, they scored 31 points and took the contest to overtime.
Sean McVay has his team peaking at just the right time and seeing as Detroit’s offence has slowed in recent weeks, I can’t help but feel that this is a perfect playoff match-up for a Los Angeles team eager to spring an upset or two. At the price, the Rams are the value underdog pick of Super Wildcard Weekend.
Stafford spent a dozen years in Detroit getting battered and bruised, with little to show for it thanks to malpractice at the top of the organisation. The very same quarterback heading into Ford Field’s first ever playoff game and breaking the Lions’ hearts is nothing short of poetic.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
- Sunday 2130 GMT
Matt LeFleur’s GREEN BAY BACKERS head to Dallas on Sunday and it’s fair to say that the bookmakers don’t fancy their chances. At the time of writing, the Packers are 7.5-point underdogs in the wildcard clash, but that does seem a little steep.
The Cowboys are worthy favourites, of course, and I’m not going to be brazen enough to suggest that Green Bay spring the upset on America’s Team. But, there’s a case for Green Bay keeping the game tight enough to cover what is a fairly sizeable spread for January football.
On the back of three straight wins, Green Bay have some juice heading into this contest and quarterback Jordan Love has looked more impressive with each passing week. Despite a young and inexperienced offensive unit, Green Bay have piled on the points of late, scoring a combined 83 over the last three weeks.
That provides reason to suggest this fearless Packers team won’t be caught in the headlights by the Cowboys' explosive point-scoring and another element we have to consider is Green Bay’s form on the road this season.
At first glance, it hasn’t been all that impressive. The Packers have only picked up four wins away from Lambeau Field, losing five on enemy soil.
However, their road record makes for lighter reading in the context of this handicap selection. Those five losses, though frustrating, have been by a combined 13 points and none of these defeats were inflicted by more than four points.
The Packers aren’t the finished article and a playoff run this season would be nothing but an unexpected bonus within a clear transition period, but there are no doubts around the gutsiness of this team when their backs are against the wall.
Green Bay’s backs will be against the wall once more on Sunday but, with nothing to lose, I expect them to run Dallas closer than many appear to.
Posted at 1625 GMT on 13/01/24
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