NFL Wildcard Weekend betting tips, points spreads, accumulators and best bets

NFL betting tips: Saturday January 13

2pts under 40.5 points in Dolphins @ Chiefs at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

2pts Patrick Mahomes over 28.5 rushing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Kick-off time: Sunday 0100 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports NFL
• Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 @ 10/11
• Total: Under 43.5 points @ 10/11

This may be one of the coldest NFL games ever. Temperatures are expected to be at around -17 degrees Celsius at kick off, with a windchill projected to be -34 degrees Celsius! To put it bluntly, the Dolphins are not a cold weather team.

They have lost ten straight games where the weather has been below four degrees Celsius – by an average margin of defeat at 15.5 points. Mike McDaniel is responsible for three of those defeats, and Tua’s stats tumble – with a 55% completion percentage and 71.8 passer rating. This could have all been avoided for Miami if not for a disastrous end to the season with losses against the Ravens and Bills – alongside a slew of injuries.

However, things aren’t that much better for the Chiefs – their offence has been a calamity as of late. This is the first season in PATRICK MAHOMES career that he has not had a 1,000+ yard receiver – their wide receiver room is down there with the worst in the league. Travis Kelce and rookie Rashee Rice have 900 yards – third in the list is Justin Watson with just 460 yards. Losing Eric Bieniemy has clearly had a big impact, but not having a true number one receiver has been equally as damaging.

For the Dolphins – their offence was setting records at the start of the season, but they have a habit of fading away in the biggest games. They’ve had losses to the Bills (twice), Ravens, Eagles, and even the Chiefs earlier this season. That game was played in Germany, in what was ultimately a dud – a 21-14 win for the Chiefs that fell short of the mass hype. A lot has changed then – the Chiefs defence has gone from strength to strength, they concede just 17.3 points per game, the second fewest in the NFL. For the Dolphins, they fell apart down the stretch – missing out on the #2 seed and losing multiple key players.

Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel are done for the season, and for this game CB Xavien Howard will be missing. Jevon Holland is also questionable, alongside Raheem Mostert (there’s hope he will play) and Jaylen Waddle. This is a collection of some of Miami’s best players – which will have a huge impact on this game.

If the Dolphins are going to win, it’s going to be through their running game. Having a healthy Raheem Mostert will be crucial, he has 21 touchdowns this season and alongside Devon Achane they’re arguably the best 1-2 punch in the NFL. The Chiefs’ defence is fierce, but their rush defence is the one to exploit. Kansas’ pass defence ranks as fourth best in the league, compared to their 15th worst ranked rush defence. Lines aren’t out at the time of writing for Mostert given his injury concern, but I’d take the over on his rush attempts line if he’s good to go.

Speaking of rushing – Patrick Mahomes rushing line is set at 28.5, a number I can see him clearing. The connection with his receivers is clearly lacking, and this cold weather is going to make the football even harder to catch. We can expect an uptake in rushing from both teams – especially from Mahomes. In his career Mahomes averages 20.2 rushing yards per game during the regular season, in the post season this number jumps up to 27.4. Against Miami earlier this season, he had six carries for 24 yards.

We can expect Mahomes to take matters into his own hands as he tries to will the Chiefs into the next round. Watch plays break down (thanks to his lacklustre receivers), and Mahomes move the chains with his legs.

This is a different Kansas team, and one we’re not used to seeing. However, you must take experience into consideration. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes thrive in the post season, and a trademark Travis Kelce game feels within reach. There’s a lot going against Miami, with a torrid history in cold weather and a bounty of injuries to key players. It just doesn’t feel like Miami’s year – back the Chiefs in a low scoring affair.

Kansas City Chiefs 21-14 Miami Dolphins

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

3pts David Njoku over 5.5 receptions at evens (Sky Bet)

2pts Cleveland Browns -1.5 at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

1pt David Njoku 100+ receiving yards at 6/1 (bet365)

• Kick-off time: Saturday 2130 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports NFL
• Spread: Cleveland Browns -1.5 @ 10/11
• Total: Over 44.5 points evens

The Joe Flacco-led CLEVELAND BROWNS kick off the 2024 NFL playoffs with a trip to Houston to face the Texans. These two teams met just three weeks ago on Christmas Eve, where the Browns demolished the Texans 36-22.

However, CJ Stroud missed that game through injury, and he is now back in the fray. There are still learnings we can take from this game though – particularly with Cleveland’s offence. This was Flacco’s third 300+ yard game (he now has four consecutive), but the connection with elite WR Amari Cooper blossomed.

Cooper caught 11 passes for 265 yards (a franchise record) and two touchdowns, absolutely torching the Texans secondary. He has since been injured and not appeared for the Browns since. But with Cleveland securing their playoff spot in Week 17 they rested nearly the entire team – giving extra rest. Cooper is now fully set to go, and the Texans will be extra wary of dealing with Cooper. This protection may lead to more opportunities to a player in a great spot, DAVID NJOKU.

Since Flacco came in, Njoku has flourished. His last four games have seen: 6 catches -134 yards, 6 catches – 44 yards, 10 catches – 104 yards, 6 catches – 91 yards. His receptions line is set at 5.5, which feels extremely clearable. To further sweeten the pot, no team in the NFL has allowed more catches to tight ends than the Houston Texans (107), leading to 1,024 yards and five touchdowns to the position. When these teams met three weeks ago, he saw nine targets, catching six for 44 yards in a game that saw Cleveland dominate. Expect a monster game from Njoku in a plus spot.

It's going to be an uphill struggle for the Texans – they are banged up, especially on their defensive line. Jonathan Greenard hasn’t played for weeks and Will Anderson is dealing with an ankle injury as well – these two have been huge bright sparks on their defensive line. Having CJ Stroud is a major boost, but he hasn’t faced a defence like the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns have allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL (270.2 yards) and have 28 total takeaways. For the Texans to win, they need to take advantage of any potential turnovers. Joe Flacco has more interceptions this season than CJ Stroud, and he’s only played in five games vs Stroud’s 15. They need to turn these turnovers into touchdowns, but that hinges on the Cleveland defence.

This is going to be a close game against two coach of the year candidates, but extra rest and injuries move the dial towards the Browns. We’ve seen what Flacco is capable of in the playoffs, albeit several years ago, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Back the Browns to advance.

Cleveland Browns 31-27 Houston Texans

Posted at 1800 GMT on 12/01/24

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