Matt Temple-Marsh searches for value touchdown scorers for Week Two of the NFL on Sunday.
Sure, Christian McCaffrey looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 4/7 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.
Here I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky back-ups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
Vikings @ Colts
With a backfield consisting of Marlon Mack & shiny new running back Jonathan Taylor, nobody was expecting Hines to be contributing this much. The 23-year-old went off for two touchdowns, eight receptions and 73 total yards in week one. He saw a huge 17.4% of the Colts’ total targets, and we know Philip Rivers loves to dump passes off to his running backs (see Austin Ekeler’s 2019 production).
Added to this Hines had four carries and two targets in the red zone, showing his value as a touchdown scorer. Take Mack’s season-ending injury into consideration and Hines looks to be heavily involved in the Colts’ offence.
Ravens @ Texans
The Ravens boast a crowded backfield with multiple players competing for the ball, but Dobbins has already shown promise. In week one he amassed seven carries for an albeit disappointing 22 yards, but crucially he had both carries inside the five-yard line. Dobbins scored two touchdowns, and may be on his way to asserting himself as the goal-line back over Mark Ingram.
The Ravens face the Texans, who just let Clyde Edwards-Helaire go off for 138 rushing yards & a score. Lamar Jackson may steal some potential touchdowns with his mobility, but at 2/1 the value is there.
Chiefs @ Chargers
Another rookie comes into the list, a talented running back out of UCLA. Ekeler seemed a lock for the majority of work in the Chargers’ backfield, but Kelly comes in to form a powerful one-two punch. The rookie carried the ball 12 times for 60 yards and a score, crucially taking both goal line carries against the Bengals in week one.
The only problem this week is the Chargers face the Chiefs, leading to a likely negative game script where the run may be abandoned early. Keep an eye on Kelly throughout the season, and if the Chargers defence can keep this game competitive expect him to be on the scoresheet.
Vikings @ Colts
Parris Campbell anytime at 9/4
Campbell quietly caught six of nine targets for 71 yards in a week one loss against the Jaguars. He saw nearly 20% of Rivers’ passes, and played a huge 95% of his snaps in the slot. We can expect the second year wide-out to routinely get the ball, and this week he faces a seriously lacklustre Vikings D.
Their defence allowed Aaron Rodgers to put together a four touchdown game alongside 364 passing yards, with a group of inexperienced defensive backs struggling to keep pace. Campbell comes with explosive speed and if his target share continues it won’t be long until he finds himself in the end zone.
49ers @ Jets
Jordan Reed made his 49ers debut against the Cardinals in a shock defeat, but he did catch his two targets for 12 yards. Reed has long suffered with injuries, but we know the big-play potential is there – highlighted by his 2015 season with 11 touchdowns.
George Kittle suffered a scary knee injury in week one, and hasn’t practiced all week. This doesn’t rule out him out for Sunday, but he likely won’t see his normal usage. The 49ers are seriously struggling with injury at wide receiver, potentially opening the door for more Reed targets.
Odds correct as of 2334 BST on 18/9/20
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