Free NFL tips: Value bets for touchdown scorers in Week Three of the NFL

By Matt Temple-Marsh

NFL

Sun September 27, 2020 · 4y ago

Matt Temple-Marsh picks out five value touchdown scorers for Sunday's third week of NFL action.

Week Three in the NFL has some huge match-ups in it and some huge players will no doubt do all the damage, but where is the value in players to score touchdowns?

Sure, Christian McCaffrey looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 4/7 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there. In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.

Panthers @ Chargers

Joshua Kelly anytime at 5/4 (8/1 for 2TDs)

I talked about Kelly last week, who was unlucky not to get in the end zone, but he’s getting the volume. Against the Chiefs, Kelly carried the ball 23 times & caught both of his targets - being on the field for 52% of the Chargers’ snaps. This backfield is a 1A/1B arrangement with Ekeler/Kelly and they’re in line for a monster week against the Panthers – equipped with the worst run defence in the league.

Josh Jacobs ran wild in week one with three touchdowns, then Leonard Fournette notched over 100 yards with two scores in week two. The anytime price reflects Kelly’s volume, but an 8/1 brace shows real value, in what will be a positive game script for the Chargers.

Rams @ Bills

Tyler Higbee anytime at 6/4 (10/1 for 2TDs)

Fresh off a hat-trick against the Eagles, Higbee goes into another favourable match-up in week three against the Buffalo Bills. Last week the Bills were without both starting middle linebackers, Tremaine Edmunds & Matt Milano, resulting in a massive week for Mike Gesicki - eight receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown.

Both Edmunds & Milano returned to practice this week but in a limited capacity, and if either are not at 100% then we can expect Higbee to feast again. The Rams tight end has emerged as a top three option in Sean McVay’s offence, and should see volume again in a potential high-scoring affair this week.

49ers @ Giants

Jeff Wilson anytime at 7/4

We are just three weeks into the new season and the 49ers roster has been decimated by injuries. Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman and Jimmy Garoppolo are some of the key names missing for Week Three, but importantly starting running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman are out. This puts Jerick McKinnon in line for an increased workload, but we know Kyle Shanahan utilises a committee backfield – time for Jeff Wilson.

Despite scoring two touchdowns already this season, McKinnon has touched the ball just nine times (six rushes & three receptions) in 2020, as he is still being eased into this offence. Shanahan will turn to the experienced Wilson throughout their week three match-up, and Wilson knows his way to the end zone after scoring five touchdowns last season, including a crucial game-winner against the Cardinals. The value for Wilson is there, but it’s worth keeping an eye on rookie running back JaMycal Hasty as well - if any bookies will list a price.

Buccaneers @ Broncos

Noah Fant anytime at 5/2

2020 is the Noah Fant breakout year. Through two games the athletic tight end ranks as a top three TE in the league with nine catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns, and now may be the top option in this Broncos offence with Courtland Sutton done for the season.

The introduction of Blake Bortles presents a slight question mark, but Fant is the reliable pass catcher for the Broncos going forward. Sure, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence looks fierce so far, but it’s nothing new for Fant, as he caught four catches for 57 yards and a score against the equally menacing Steelers defence last week.

Titans @ Vikings

Corey Davis anytime at 9/4

AJ Brown’s disappointment is Davis’ gain in a contract year. The wide receiver has started well, with ten catches for 137 yards and a touchdown, with an enticing match-up in store with the Minnesota Vikings.

Their defensive backs group ranks as the worst in the league in having allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than any other team. With AJ Brown possibly missing another week, Davis shows huge value in week three.

Odds correct as of 1814 BST on 25/9/20

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