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Sunday's NFL preview & picks: The best stats and betting guide for Week Four of the NFL including the Cowboys, Patriots and Chiefs
The Dallas Cowboys taking their perfect start to New Orleans is the pick of Sunday's action, where Paul Higham fancies the Patriots & Chiefs to cover their points spread.
Recommended bets
2pts Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5pts) to beat the Lions at 19/20
1pt New England Patriots (-6.5pts) to beat the Buffalo Bills at 5/6
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
What a game we’ve got to finish Sunday’s action as two division leaders and NFC powerhouses clash at the Superdome. The Saints shocked us all by winning in the hostile environment in Seattle without QB Drew Brees – this time they’ll have a deafening home fan base behind them.
Only the Giants and Steelers have allowed more passing yards this season, and now they face Dak Prescott who has 920 yards and nine touchdowns already as the NFL’s most accurate QB in many metrics.
Big D have been an offensive super power this season, scoring a minimum of 31 points in every game and not only having Prescott on fire but star rusher Ezekiel Elliott looking as good as ever and now joined by exciting rookie Tony Pollard. They both had 100-yard games last week.
3-0 Dallas having only played the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, with one win between them, may have inflated their standing somewhat, but then last week’s win for the Saints include a defensive and special teams touchdown – and you can’t count on them every week.
It’s a coin toss of a game but the extra weapons, offensive line and quarterback play all have to give Dallas the edge, while they have enough pass rushing pressure to give back-up Teddy Bridgewater a rough ride.
Verdict: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 and Under 47.5 Total Match Points at 11/4
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
While it’s no surprise to see the defending champions sitting on 3-0, it’s a big one to see the Buffalo Bills also perfect ahead of this AFC East clash. Tom Brady owns the Bills – his 30-3 record against them is a record and the Pats have won six of the last seven meeting in Buffalo.
This is the best Bills team this decade though, and in the last four meetings under new Bills coach Sean McDermott Brady has more interceptions than touchdowns – although he has bagged four wins.
Finding a way to win is exactly what Brady and the Pats do best, he’s not one to pad out his stats and he’ll gladly hand the ball off to Sony Michel all day long if it’s bringing success.
It’s the Patriots defence that’s been so stupendous so far this season, as they’ve not conceded a touchdown as a unit yet in three games – and they come into this having allowed just 105 yards last time out in the best performance in Bill Belichick’s entire 347 games with the team.
That spells trouble for Bills QB Josh Allen who is as unpredictable as he is exciting, but he’s not exactly steady and Belichick usually eats up signal callers like him for breakfast.
Neither side has played anyone good yet – both team’s opponents have just one win between them, but New England has been other worldly when disposing of them while Buffalo have ridden their luck. The Pats to win by a touchdown is good enough for me.
Verdict: New England Patriots (-6.5pts) to beat the Buffalo Bills at 5/6
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
We get another look at the MVP take on another tough test as the Chiefs head to Detroit to face the unbeaten Lions (two wins and a tie) looking to stretch a number of impressive records for the team and spell-binding quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Andy Reid’s side have scored at least 26 points in 24 straight regular season games – Mahomes has only started the last 20 to show that the offence was pretty good before he took over. It’s gone to another level under his guidance though and he has 13,300 yards in his 20 starts and averages just under 400 this season, while throwing ten touchdowns and no interceptions.
Ford Field’s artificial surface will also play into the hands of Mahomes’ ‘Legion of Zoom’ offence that has countless speedy receivers all able to come in and leave defenders trailing in their wake – having an injury doubt over Detroit’s best cornerback Darius Slay doesn’t help either.
It’s how Matt Patricia attempts to engineer an upset win that will decide how the game goes – as he should be looking to run the ball with the Chiefs coughing up a worrying six-plus yards a carry on the ground. Lions QB Matt Stafford is a confirmed gunslinger and loves a shootout, but he’s bringing a peashooter in comparison to Mahomes.
There’s a lot to like about the Lions, but getting this Chiefs to win by just a touchdown at just under Evens is a gift.
NFL WEEK 4 SCHEDULE & RESULTS
Thursday, September 26, 2019
- Philadelphia Eagles 34-27 Green Bay Packers - Report & highlights
Sunday, September 29, 2019
- Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
- Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
- Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans
- Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
- Washington Redskins at New York Giants
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
- Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Monday, September 30, 2019
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds correct as of 21009 on 270919
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