After a winning September, Paul Higham starts October with a look at the big games in Week Four, including the huge Chiefs v Patriots clash.
Recommended bets
1pt Cowboys (-5.5) to beat the Browns at 21/20
1pt Colts (-2) to beat the Bears at Evens
1pt Bills & Cowboys all to win at 1.32/1
*Chiefs game postponed - single bet void; treble adjusted to double at coupon prices
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Three weeks down and what do we know? Well, the lack of fans hasn’t resulted in a lack of action as we’ve hit record numbers of points (2,446) and touchdowns (281) after three weeks of an NFL season.
The Green Bay Packers are the top scorers in the league with 122 points, the Seattle Seahawks have the most touchdowns (15) while New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has found the end zone more than anyone else with his six touchdowns.
We kind of know who is good, who is bad, and who is just downright ugly this season, but that doesn’t mean the odd upset won’t come along every week. Let’s see if we can build on a strong start to the season.
Browns @ Cowboys
Strange to see the Browns are the team on 2-1 and the Cowboys 1-2 but it’s no real surprise given the fixtures – Dallas have lost by three at the Rams and on a late TD in Seattle, while Cleveland’s wins have been over Cincinnati and Washington - who have one win between them.
Dallas QB Dak Prescott has been doing his bit as he leads the league in passing yards but that Big D defence just can’t limit teams enough to win those big games. Cleveland don’t really trust their QB Baker Mayfield to get it done, so they’ve done their damage on the ground as they’ve averaged 170 yards a game rushing.
Dallas can strike quickly though with Prescott and you'd imagine if they got a lead then there’s only one winner if the game becomes a shoot-out.
There’s not too much on paper between them in some aspects, and both sides do have a great deal of talent in them, but Dallas should be too good – they just need a slight improvement on defence to pull them through.
Colts @ Bears
Chicago are one of the more surprising 3-0 teams, but they’ve certainly earned those wins having had to make fourth-quarter comebacks of 16 and 17 points in two of those, while just about fending off a New York Giants comeback.
Nick Foles, a former Super Bowl MVP, is now their starting QB having taken over from Mitchell Trubiskey last week, and he certainly adds a bit more spark to the offence, but they’ll need it against the Colts’ top-ranked defence this week.
Indianapolis have a fine well-rounded team but like the Bears they’ve not had to face a decent team yet having lost to the Jags before beating the Vikings and Jets. This is the biggest test so far for both teams and an interesting one to figure out.
Indy have the better squad but are only slight 1.5-point favourites given the Bears are unbeaten and now have a competent quarterback. They can’t keep relying on comebacks though so expect them to fall short in their first big test.
Patriots @ Chiefs (Postponed)
The game was postponed after Cam Newton tested positive for coronavirus. It is due to be rescheduled to be played on Monday or Tuesday but that will depend on whether any further positive tests appear.
Selected treble
Bills, Chiefs & Cowboys all to win at 9/4
Buffalo play the Las Vegas Raiders, who look promising but the 3-0 Bills have showed us everything so far, especially QB Josh Allen, and their win over a solid Rams side last week was the clincher that they are play-off contenders this season.
Odds correct as of 1735 BST on 2/10/20
