With three winners from four last week, Ross Williams picks out his best bets for Week 8 action in the NFL.
NFL betting tips: Week 8
2pts Tennessee Titans (-2.5) to beat the Houston Texans at 10/11 (General)
2pts Over 44.5 total match points in New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks at 10/11 (General)
1pt Sam Ehlinger (Colts) to score a touchdown at 4/1 (bet365)
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Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
- Kick-off time: 20:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Tennessee Titans (-2.5) to beat the Houston Texans
This is a game that has the potential to get ugly and incredibly one-sided, really quickly.
The handicap of 2.5 points seems extremely slim and it doesn’t come as a surprise that the money is with the Titans.
After a shaky start, Tennessee are – all of a sudden – the 3rd-ranked team in the AFC and on course for another division title, whereas Houston are once again stone-dead last in the conference, nursing a measly 1-4-1 record.
If we’re being honest though, results so far this season aren’t even the half of it. The real reason why Tennessee should cruise to victory is Derrick Henry’s borderline-cruel dominion over the Texans’ franchise.
In his last three appearances against the Texans, Henry has 673 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. That isn’t a typo, he really has ran for 673 yards in those three games.
All told, Henry has taken Houston for over 1,000 yards on the ground during his glittering career. It’s an absurd statistic, but it is cause alone to believe the Texans haven’t got a chance on Sunday.
Of course, there would usually be the argument raised that NFL teams change drastically year-on-year, and Henry will face very different personnel this week. He didn’t even play against the Texans last season, for example.
This much is true, but it doesn’t help Houston’s cause. Although many of the defenders Henry will face on Sunday have different faces, the Texans’ inability to contain the run has lingered. They made Josh Jacobs of the Raiders look like Walter Payton last week as he picked up three touchdowns and over 140 yards.
Needless to say, it’s impossible to win NFL games whilst allowing that kind of stat-line.
The worst rush defence in the league will have been dreading week eight and the return of the king.
Washington Commanders @ Indianapolis Colts
- Kick-off time: 20:25 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Sam Ehlinger (Colts) to score a touchdown
After a disappointing start to the season, it’s all change in Indianapolis.
Matt Ryan came to town in the off-season and brought plenty of optimism with him, but it’s been pretty evident over the last few weeks that the former Falcon’s best days are well behind him.
He’s made errant throws, poor decisions and – due to some equally bad offensive line play – he’s been a sitting duck in the pocket, taking a massive 24 sacks and leading the league in fumbles.
For his own safety, and the betterment of the team, Indianapolis made the call to bench the borderline Hall of Famer this week and this opens the door for young Sam Ehlinger to enter the fray and make his first NFL start.
A former sixth-round pick, it’s fair to say that fans are not expecting wonders from the Texas Longhorn. Ehlinger has been criticised for below-average arm strength and his college career – despite making him NFL-worthy – didn’t exactly blow the roof off.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom and, at the very least, this pro-active move from the Colts adds an extra dynamic to an offence that has failed to deliver on expectations this season.
Inability to avoid pressure was the straw that broke the camel’s back in regards to Ryan and that’s something Ehlinger can improve upon.
He’s much smaller in stature – measuring up at around 6’1” – and he’s far more nimble than the veteran quarterback that will now be his de-facto coach for the rest of 2022.
The Colts can’t put a consistent offensive line on the field so the pressure will continue against Washington this week. Ehlinger can expect to feel the heat on around a third of his drop-backs and this is actually what gives us a value angle.
On his first NFL start, it’s unlikely Ehlinger will put full trust in his arm to get him out of tough scrapes, so we should expect to see him flying out of the pocket on numerous occasions to avoid would-be tacklers.
This is an evasion tactic first and foremost but, with the Colts expected to put the ball into Jonathan Taylor’s hands plenty this week, there will be moments where Indianapolis have the ball in the red-zone.
In these scenarios, Ehlinger will have the opportunity to turn self-preservation into points.
You’ll hear plenty of criticism of the young quarterback this week but, if you listen closely enough, the naysayers may also quickly mention the fact that Ehlinger scored 33 rushing touchdowns during his college career, before they divert to questioning his arm.
He’s a competitor, he knows where the end-zone is and he might catch the Commanders napping. Furthermore, in a league suddenly full of scrambling quarterbacks, he may just make a name for himself.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
- Kick-off time: 20:25 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Over 44.5 total match points at 10/11
Before the start of the season, you couldn’t have paid most NFL fans to sit down and watch a game between the Giants and the Seahawks. Eight weeks later, it’s arguably the game of the week!
With that in mind, I like the chances of seeing 45 or more points in the game, based on the match-up and recent trends with these surprisingly high-flying franchises.
This would only be the second time the Giants have hit this number this season, but they shape up well against a Seahawks defensive unit that can’t really get things figured out.
Seattle are the 4th worst rushing defence and they’ve conceded 10 touchdowns on the ground so far. Only the hapless Lions and the Browns have shipped more, so this could be open season for a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley who has recaptured his best form in the Giants’ back-field.
This gives New York a chance to uphold their side of the bargain, and I have no concerns at all in regards to Seattle’s point-scoring prowess.
Pete Carroll’s outfit are red-hot on offence and their games have gone over 45 points in four of their last five outings. Last week, the Hawks put up 37 points by themselves.
Scoring has simply not been a problem for Seattle – who house the 5th ranked offence in the NFL and Geno Smith, who Pro Football Focus regard as the fourth-best passer in football at the moment.
Star receiver DK Metcalf possibly being out is a natural concern, but he also missed much of last week’s encounter with the Chargers and Smith made diamonds from rocks with the likes of Marquise Goodwin and Will Dissly stepping up for him.
Kenneth Walker was also superb at running back for the Seahawks – picking up 167 yards and a pair of touchdowns - and the Giants will have trouble containing him if he can replicate that performance.
Odds correct at 1555 BST (28/10/22)
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