Ahead of NFL Week 3, OddsCritic looks at the key injuries and trends to help find the value in the betting markets.
We are two weeks into the 2021 season and things now look a little more like we’d expected from an NFL betting perspective.
Aaron Rodgers was back to being Aaron Rodgers, the Saints were more like the Saints we feared/expected and the Jags and Jets are woeful.
Let’s look at some of the things we learned from Week 2, and ahead to some of the pointers for this weekend’s schedule.
Injury Report
The phrase ‘next man up’ is one you’ll hear a lot from NFL coaches. It’s a brutal league and a brutal game, and here are some of the key injuries from Week 2:
Brandon Graham (DE, Philadelphia Eagles): Since being drafted by the Eagles in Round 1 of the 2010 Draft, Graham has been great for a perennially powerful defensive front. But his 2021 season is done just two weeks in, after he ruptured his Achilles during the 17-11 loss to San Francisco. Huge loss for a Philly team which is in rebuild mode, both from a talent and leadership perspective.
Jarvis Landry (WR, Cleveland Browns): Landry went down early in the Browns’ 31-21 defeat of Houston, leaving the game with a sprained MCL. He was placed on injured reserve and will miss at least three weeks. The return of Odell Beckham Jr (possibly this weekend) cannot come soon enough.
Demarcus Lawrence (DE, Dallas Cowboys): This one didn’t even come in a game. Lawrence is the key man on a Cowboy defense which was historically bad in 2020. So when D-Law left practice with a broken foot late last week alarm bells began ringing at The Star in Frisco. He will be out several weeks - a huge hole for the Cowboys to fill. If there is a silver lining for Dallas it was the performance of rookie linebacker Micah Parsons in Sunday’s win over Los Angeles (more on that later).
Taylor Lewan (OT, Tennessee Titans): 2021 could not have started any worse for Lewan. One of the league’s highest-paid tackles was destroyed by Arizona’s Chandler Jones (five sacks) in Week 1, and he did not even make it to kickoff in Week 2. Lewan sustained a knee injury in pre-game warmups and missed the overtime win in Seattle. We await further details.
Tyrod Taylor (QB, Houston Texans): Houston doesn’t have a great deal going for it right now, but at least Taylor gave it veteran savvy at the game’s most important position. But he sustained a hamstring injury in the loss to Cleveland and is headed to IR. Bad news for the Texans, and for Taylor’s replacement Davis Mills - who will face a Panther defense that was terrific in shutting down New Orleans on Sunday.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Miami Dolphins): Still trying to prove himself as QB1 in Miami, the rib injury Tua suffered in Sunday’s embarrassing 35-0 home loss to Buffalo was the last thing the former Alabama standout needed. Even if he is healthy enough to start against the Raiders in Week 3, a very rough ride awaits.
Carson Wentz (QB, Indianapolis Colts): Reports suggest that the luckless Wentz sprained not one but both of his ankles in the home loss to the Rams. Indy is now 0-2 going into a huge Week 3 divisional matchup with Tennessee, and Wentz’s status is uncertain. Bad news for Colts fans - everything we said might happen in our AFC South preseason update, now is.
Bradley Chubb (LB, Denver Broncos): Chubb left the win over Jacksonville with an ankle injury, and is due to have surgery to remove a bone spur this week. He will miss games and that is bad news for a Denver team which is trending very much north (more on that later).
Tyson Alualu (DT, Pittsburgh Steelers): Sunday was a bad day in Pittsburgh. Not only did the Steelers endure a home loss to Las Vegas, they also lost starting nose tackle Alualu for the year with a fractured ankle. In slightly better news, superstar linebacker T.J. Watt may figure this week despite suffering a groin injury against the Raiders.
Trending North
Tom Brady: It’s almost embarrassing to put a 44-year-old with seven Super Bowl rings in this category, but it has to be done. He seems to be better than ever - quite ridiculous. With a full offseason preparing with an all-star receiving corps, Brady is now carving up NFL defenses like there is no tomorrow. Those crazy preseason odds about him being the league’s MVP in 2021 are now just a distant memory. All Brady did Sunday was throw five touchdown passes as the Bucs defeated Atlanta 48-25. He targeted 10 different receivers, and completed passes to all of them. Surgical precision, with the NFL’s greatest player leading an offensive juggernaut. We keep waiting for the first signs of decline, but it’s turning out to be a long wait.
Micah Parsons: When the aforementioned Lawrence went down with that broken foot, Dallas fans had to wonder where the pressure on Chargers QB Justin Herbert was coming from. Step forward Parsons. The former Penn State linebacker came off the edge for most of Sunday’s win, and he was a beast. A sack, four quarterback hits and a tackle for loss were the results. Maybe, just by accident, Dallas has found a way to get even more value out of its first-round pick, who not surprisingly is prominent in the betting to be Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Kyle Pitts: Atlanta may be 0-2, but the fantasy nerds out there should at least be stroking their chins and nodding at the flashes shown by the freakishly talented Mr Pitts in the Week 2 loss in Tampa. Pitt caught six balls for 73 yards and showcased some of the ability which led scouts to tab him as a generational tight end talent coming out of school. As long as the Falcons can somehow keep Matt Ryan upright (they have struggled so far) then the future should only be brighter for Pitts.
Daniel Jones: The much-maligned Giants quarterback did not manage to lead his team to a win vs Washington last Thursday night, but he was the reason they came close. Jones was excellent as Big Blue lost a 30-29 heartbreaker in the nation’s capital. This was a quantum step up on his Week 1 showing vs Denver. Now he needs to do it consistently.
Julio Jones: Derrick Henry would have been the totally obvious Titan inclusion here, but the performance of Jones in Seattle could end up being more significant in the long term. Julio showed he has plenty left in the tank by accumulating 128 receiving yards as Tennessee beat the Seahawks in overtime. And those six catches came at 21.3 yards a pop. He still has some juice, and that offseason trade could end up being a masterstroke.
Denver Broncos: The aforementioned loss of Bradley Chubb was a blow to Denver, but there were many reasons to be cheerful as the Broncos won in Jacksonville to improve to 2-0. Yes the opposition so far has been meek (the Giants and Jags have yet to win), but all the Broncos can do is take care of business. Teddy Bridgewater has been eminently serviceable at QB, and average play under center would be enough to see the Broncos have a good year. Courtland Sutton - whose 2020 was ruined by a torn ACL - stepped up in the absence of Jerry Jeudy by catching nine balls for 159 yards. Von Miller looked like the Von Miller of old with six pressures including a sack. Rookie CB Patrick Surtain produced a highlight-reel pick to anchor a fine performance, and fellow rookie Javonte Williams showed the ability to make tacklers miss which led Denver to trade up and select him in Round 2. This Broncos team is loaded, now can Teddy drive the bus?
Derek Carr: Like we said in our preseason update, all those Raider fans wanting to run Derek out of Las Vegas would miss him if he was gone. Two weeks into 2021, all he’s done is lead the team to 2-0 after a stellar performance in an upset of the Steelers. Carr was 28 of 37 for 382 yards and two scores behind a battered offensive line.
Trending South
Kansas City defense: This was always going to be the Achilles heel for the Chiefs, but they are outperforming even the gloomiest expectations. Two weeks into the season and this unit is 32nd of 32 in the league - giving up 469 yards per game, and 32.5 points. Patrick Mahomes and co are good enough to outscore most teams, but they can’t do it every week, and can they do it against the very best in the playoffs? Big improvement is needed, and a tricky Week 3 assignment vs the Chargers will be very telling.
Justin Herbert: Justin wasn’t exactly terrible in Sunday’s last-second loss to Dallas, but he earns inclusion here partly because of the expectations going into 2021. The Herbert love-in from national media abated just a little as he mixed some amazing throws with some head-scratching decisions during that 20-17 defeat. An inexplicable third-quarter pick was bad enough, but then he was adjudged down for an 18-yard sack late in the game which ruined any chance of a go-ahead score. Harsh maybe, but the NFL is brutal. You set the highest standards, you need to maintain them.
Zach Wilson: Rookie quarterbacks always endure growing pains, and it was obvious that #2 overall pick Wilson would be at the front of the queue in 2021. He threw four interceptions as the overmatched Jets were soundly beaten by New England on Sunday. Already without his starting left tackle, things don’t figure to get any easier this weekend with a formidable Denver defense next up.
Pittsburgh offensive line: Ben Roethlisberger did improve on his Week 1 showing despite the Steelers losing to Las Vegas, but it wasn’t down to the play of his offensive line. Pittsburgh lost a number of long-term cornerstones on their front in the offseason, and the results of the rebuild are not particularly promising so far. Things better improve fast - after this weekend’s game vs Cincinnati the next three opponents are Green Bay, Denver and Seattle. Brutal.
San Francisco ground game: Like we said, the NFL is very much a case of ‘next man up’. But what if you run out of men? Raheem Mostert is already gone for the year with a knee injury, and on Sunday Elijah Mitchell, JaMycal Hasty and Trey Sermon all suffered injuries in the 17-11 win in Philadelphia as well as struggling to get any kind of meaningful yardage. The running game is normally a huge strength for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but not here. It downright sucked.
Game Of The Week
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
- Sunday, September 26, 1800 BST
This game was always circled on the calendars of any AFC South watchers from the moment the NFL schedule was released. Tennessee comes into a crucial divisional matchup on a high - that 33-30 overtime win in Seattle saw Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and Julio Jones looking much more like their old selves. The Colts meanwhile, dropped another home game vs the Rams to fall to 0-2. Indy has a brutal schedule to open the season and with Carson Wentz a doubt due to those ankle problems, an 0-3 start is eminently possible. Two games back on the Titans and a tiebreaker down? We don’t like Indy’s chances of coming back from that.
