Ross Williams delivers his verdict on the Week 18 NFL action as the regular season draws to a close.
NFL betting tips: Week 18
2pts Buffalo Bills (-7.5) to beat the New England Patriots at evens (General)
2pts Minnesota Vikings (-6) to beat the Chicago Bears at 10/11 (General)
2pts Indianapolis Colts (-0.5) & under 40.5 points at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
2pts Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos – under 40 points at 10/11 (General)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Bills (-7.5) to beat the Patriots on the handicap
I’d like the Bills’ chances in this week 18 match-up regardless of circumstance but, in light of the Damar Hamlin situation and everything that’s happened to the Buffalo franchise over the course of the last week, I fear for anyone standing in their way.
Sunday will be an emotional occasion at Orchard Park and with a squad very unlikely to be good enough to win a wildcard match-up in the postseason, I don’t envisage the Patriots providing much resistance to their divisional rivals.
The Patriots sit in the seventh and final AFC playoff spot at present, but is an extra game this season really beneficial to the Massachusetts outfit? The team is at least a couple of years away from seriously competing for silverware, and they know it.
As for the Bills, their playoff status is secured, but with Hamlin in their minds and hearts this weekend, I’d be absolutely amazed if Buffalo come off the gas and begin benching starters early on. Buffalo will desperately want to win their final home regular season game, in honour of their stricken safety, and I fully expect them to do so with relative ease.
Although there are no positives to what happened on Monday night, the timing of when the game was cancelled means that the majority of the Buffalo line-up haven’t faced the true rigours of an NFL game since Christmas Eve. The Bills only lined up for a couple of series against Cincinnati, whereas New England faced Miami in a hard-fought contest on New Year's Day.
Buffalo are fresher, hungrier and more passionate about getting this victory on home soil, while the record books show that the previous meeting between these two sides ended in a comfortable 14-point Bills victory.
Give me Josh Allen’s Buffalo, giving the points.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Vikings (-6) to beat the Bears on the handicap
The Vikes have been a tough team to back all season – despite their 12-4 record – due to a string of tight games, but I fancy them to end the regular season on the right foot as they approach the playoffs.
Minnesota can drop no further than the #3 seed in the NFC so, on paper, this clash with the Bears isn’t of the highest importance, but a win puts them in with a chance of grabbing the #2 seed and – perhaps more importantly – a good performance is needed for morale following their manhandling by Green Bay last weekend.
It was a sobering afternoon for the Vikings, in which they conceded 41 points to Aaron Rodgers and star receiver Justin Jefferson was practically shut out of the game.
The team cannot afford for those memories to linger as they head into the postseason, so I expect a response in week 18.
The good news, and the reason why the six-point spread is backable, is the mindset of their opponents, the Chicago Bears.
As we head into the final week of the regular season, Chicago control the second overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, thanks to their measly 3-13 record.
As the Bears already have their quarterback of the future in Justin Fields, this leaves Chicago in a fantastic position. They can either select the best non-quarterback in the draft class (as Houston will almost certainly select a passer at #1) or the Bears can place the pick on the trade block and watch the generous offers fly in.
They’re in a position of influence, but a win in week 18 could jeopardise that as there are three teams in the NFL with just four wins themselves.
It’s an alien concept to us on the other side of the pond, but these tactics are clearly employed on an annual basis in the NFL, whether the powers-that-be admit it or not. The Bears' front office and coaching staff have no intention of throwing everything at Minnesota in order to win this game and the first (massive) hint has already been made, as it was announced in the week that Fields will not participate in this final game of the year.
Nathan Peterman – a quarterback that has thrown four times as many interceptions as touchdowns in his career – will helm the Bears this weekend and if that’s not an indicator that you should back the Vikings to cement a comfortable, morale-building victory, I don’t know what is.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Colts (-0.5) to beat the Texans and under 40.5pts
For much of the same reasons as the aforementioned Chicago Bears, both teams in this season-ending AFC South match-up would take a loss right now.
It’s a grim reality and neither franchise would ever address it openly, but it’s a given and widely accepted across the league.
For both the Texans and the Colts, this offseason represents a massive opportunity to select their quarterback of the future, with three or four rookie passers looking worthy of first-round billing.
The Texans are in the enviable position of being the worst team in the NFL today. It’s an oxymoron, but American sport can be weird like that.
If they can leave Indianapolis without adding to their two existing ticks in the win column, Houston will essentially be on the clock and all focus can be put on making sure they select the quarterback that’s right for them.
Failure to navigate this game accordingly could lead to Chicago taking the first-overall pick and – if they were to trade those rights away to a quarterback-needy team – Houston’s months of scouting work could be in peril as they lose the man they’ve wanted all along.
Indianapolis – who currently control the #5 pick in the draft – are in a similar situation as the ill-fated Matt Ryan experiment comes to a close. The Colts have been in freefall all year long and this offseason will bring the biggest changes to the franchise for a decade. A new head coach will likely be named in early Spring and whoever gets the nod will be eager to put his stamp on the team with a young quarterback.
Needless to say, the Colts will not be firing on all cylinders on Sunday either, but I think they’ll begrudgingly win this one.
After a truly disappointing season, more players on the Indianapolis roster have a point to prove in this final outing of the season, with many potentially looking at moves away from the state of Indiana.
Plus, although the home support will not be quite as vociferous as elsewhere in the league this weekend, head coach Jeff Saturday will not accept his short outing as interim boss ending with another humiliating defeat on their home field. He won’t be in town next year, and he has a reputation to rebuild.
Both teams will be conservative, both teams will run the clock and neither team will take big chances, so I love this game going under 41 total match points.
For a nice price of 13/8, throw in a Colts victory as, although neither team wants to rise up the rankings, Houston have more to lose and the promise of the first-pick holy grail will undoubtedly affect their game plan to a greater degree.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
- Kick-off time: Sunday, 21:25 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Under 40 points
The Chargers are nestled safely in the AFC’s #5 seed at the moment and although the Ravens do have the opportunity to leapfrog them in the 6pm window, I don’t envisage Los Angeles throwing too much at their final game of the regular season.
LA – my pre-season Super Bowl pick at 14/1 – faltered towards the start of the season and looked set to disappoint, but they’ve turned it around magnificently. Although they don’t get the plaudits of some of the AFC teams around them, Brandon Staley’s team have quietly become one of the hottest and most consistent in the NFL in the latter stages of the regular season, winning five of their last six games.
Unlike so many Chargers teams of old, they appear to be peaking at the right time.
Failure to reach the playoffs last season was a real black eye for Justin Herbert and co but there is no such misfortune this time around. The Chargers will be involved in the postseason and they’re not a team many would relish the chance to face in a knockout situation.
With this in mind, it would be foolish for LA to risk their stars in a game with very low stakes on Sunday, so expect Staley to pull a number of his starters as the fixture goes on. This will significantly affect their offensive potency and points will be at a premium when the likes of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler are on the sideline.
This is why I like the unders in this game, as Denver are the opposition. The Broncos have been one of the most talked-about teams in this column all year, due to their downright weirdness.
The Denver defence is fantastic in a number of regards and they’ve held teams to an average of just 20.7 points this season. But, despite their clear ability on that side of the ball, the franchise have only managed to win four games all season, thanks to their painfully bad, league-worst offence.
Including games that matter, Denver have averaged just 16 offensive points this season, so we could be in store for something truly dull on Sunday as they take to the field in a dead rubber against a Chargers team with one eye on the following week.
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Posted at 1400 GMT on 07/01/23
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