The NFL play-off picture is taking shape, but the games keep coming thick and fast as we enter the final stretch of the regular season. After landing three of his four recommended selections last week, Ross Williams is back with his best bets for Week 14.
NFL Week 14 recommended bets
2pts Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) to beat the Las Vegas Raiders at 5/6
1pt Over 52.5 points in Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 10/11
1pt Seattle Seahawks (-14) to beat the New York Jets at EVS
1pt Travis Kelce (Chiefs) 100+ yards and a touchdown at 4/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
Tampa Bay are favoured in this clash, and I think that’s justified when you consider the current records of these two teams and the fact that the Buccaneers are coming off a bye week.
However, if I was going to make a pick either way in this one, I do find the seven-point handicap very generous and I’d certainly be considering taking the Minnesota Vikings with a head-start at 10/11.
I expect a tighter game than the bookmakers are predicting, and I can’t help but feel the offensive talent of the Vikings is being overlooked.
The high-powered Tampa Bay offence guarantees points, but the same should apply for Minnesota. Match-ups are everything in the NFL, and it’s no secret that the Tampa Bay secondary have struggled down the field. With this in mind, Tampa’s defensive play-callers will have had some sleepless nights in the last week, knowing that Adam Thielen and the outstanding rookie Justin Jefferson are coming to town.
The idea of Thielen, Jefferson and Dalvin Cook battling Tom Brady’s explosive offence is a mouth-watering prospect at the best of times, but throwing two vulnerable defences into the mix should create a feast of points. The over catches my eye in this NFC contest.
Best Bet: Over 52.5 points in Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 10/11
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
The reigning Super Bowl champions take on one of the surprise packages of the season this weekend, in a game that will truly tell us everything we need to know about the 2020 Miami Dolphins.
We already know what the Chiefs are about, and we’re all very aware that Patrick Mahomes and co. will be in the hunt as we go deep into the NFL post-season. However, we are yet to discover the ceiling of the 8-4 Dolphins.
From a betting point of view, it would be great to see Tua Tagovailoa’s troops firing on all cylinders on Sunday, as a strong offensive performance will force the hand of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, and he’ll have no choice but to let his star quarterback go wild.
If this does end up being the case – and let’s face it, Mahomes never requires much encouragement – we could be about to see yet another big day for tight end Travis Kelce, in what is becoming an historic year.
On a passing yardage leader board that is traditionally exclusive to wide receivers, Kelce incredibly sits in second place, with only Seattle’s DK Metcalf ahead of him. Through 13 weeks of the season, this is nothing short of ludicrous.
The case for Kelce recording a 100+ yard game and a touchdown against the Dolphins is really very simple. The star has already achieved the feat four times this season, and he’s done so twice in the last three games.
He seems unstoppable at the moment, and that makes his price of 4/1 very, very tasty indeed.
Best Bet: Travis Kelce (Chiefs) 100+ receiving yards & to score a TD at 4/1
Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders
- When: Sunday at 21:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
After routinely jumping aboard the bandwagon for much of the season, I am officially done with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Jon Gruden’s team came worryingly close to a humiliating defeat last week at the hands of the winless New York Jets, and you don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to come to the conclusion that the Jets ultimately handed the Raiders the win on Sunday. New York’s focus is firmly on the 2021 NFL Draft, which explains the play-calling that allowed Henry Ruggs to run away for the game-winning score.
The lack of Josh Jacobs has hindered the Raiders massively of late, and although he may well suit up against Indianapolis this weekend, it’s up for debate how healthy the stand-out youngster will be, due to his history of playing through knocks.
Regardless, in this key matchup in the AFC play-off race, they come up against a defence well-versed in stopping the run.
The Colts own the seventh-best run defence in the NFL, and they would be much higher up that list if their schedule didn’t include two games against the Titans and the monstrous Derrick Henry.
Indianapolis saw off Deshaun Watson’s best efforts last week after halting the Texans’ rush attack and it may well be a similar story on Sunday. If the Colts can stick to their script and contain Las Vegas on the ground, their excellent secondary will finish off the job. Derek Carr has a history of struggling when he’s forced to put the team on his back, and that will be amplified when DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston start breathing down his neck.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) to beat the Las Vegas Raiders at 5/6
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
- When: Sunday at 21:05 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
The Seattle Seahawks have been off the boil in recent weeks, and they were humbled last week by the New York Giants. However, no one can suggest with a straight face that Seattle will drop another game in week 14.
The Jets outed themselves on Sunday as a team committed to a winless season, and with the Seahawks now firmly in the NFC West arm-wrestle, Pete Carroll’s side will view this game as a massive chance to bounce back and get back to winning ways.
I usually stray away from handicaps of this size, but everything points to a Seattle blow-out. The Jets shouldn’t have an answer to the dual-threat of Metcalf and Lockett, and that’s before we even consider the fact that New York have just fired their defensive co-ordinator, throwing their entire game plan up in the air.
The Seahawks truly have no excuse in this one. They need a major statement if they want to be considered a real contender, and they won’t get a better opportunity this season to make it.
Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks (-14) to beat the New York Jets at EVS
Odds correct as of 1430 GMT on 11/12/20
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