With just a month of the regular season to go, we’re approaching the business end of the NFL calendar. Ross Williams is on hand to find the value in the games that are becoming more important by the week.
Recommended bets
1pt Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) to beat the Houston Texans at EVS
1pt New England Patriots to beat the Los Angeles Chargers at 11/10
1pt Las Vegas Raiders (-7.5) to beat the New York Jets at EVS
1pt Justin Jefferson (Vikings) 100+ receiving yards and to score a TD at 4/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers
- When: Sunday at 21:25 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
This one seems really very straightforward.
The 5-6 Patriots, coming off a big win against a much-fancied Arizona, taking on a 3-8 Chargers team that struggle to win games, despite the best efforts of Justin Herbert.
I must admit, I had to take a second glance when I initially saw that the Patriots were the underdogs in this one.
Although, pound-for-pound, there’s almost certainly more talent on the Chargers’ roster, the same could have been said last week when New England took on the Cardinals, and probably to an even greater degree.
The Patriots roster looks ordinary at best on paper, but the X-factor they have on their side-line each and every game is something that can never, ever be disregarded. Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time for a reason, and once again he’s squeezing every single drop from this team. The fact that New England still have an outside chance of making the Play-Offs at this point of the season is testament to this.
Anthony Lynn, on the other hand, is one of a handful of NFL coaches right now that are looking over their shoulders. The Chargers have looked impressive on the eye at times, but there is still just a ‘three’ in the win column, as they languish at the foot of the AFC West.
This is one of those games where stats can only tell you half the story. Ultimately, anyone who knows anything about the NFL can tell you these two franchises have very different mind-sets, and the evidence has played out time and time again over the course of the last two decades.
The New England Patriots find ways to win games, and the Los Angeles Chargers find ways to lose them.
Best Bet: New England Patriots to beat the Los Angeles Chargers at 11/10
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
The Texans have won three from their last four games and finally hit their stride on Thanksgiving Thursday, with Deshaun Watson putting in one of the season’s finest performances to put down the struggling Lions.
As for the Colts, they ran into an angry Derrick Henry and were made to pay dearly. In their key AFC South match-up with Tennessee, Indianapolis were ultimately out-matched by the sheer power and speed of the Titans’ greatest asset.
Recent form then, would suggest that the Texans are the pick in this game, despite their underdog status. However, there is much more to this game than meets the eye.
A lot has changed in the last week in terms of personnel, and few of these changes favour the Texans.
Besides Watson, Houston’s star performer against the Lions was undoubtedly wide receiver Will Fuller, but he misses this game (and the rest of the season) following a hefty suspension for violation of the league’s PED policy. Likewise, Bradley Roby – who has been the Texans’ best cornerback this season – was also hit with the same suspension.
This instantly reduces the Texans’ ability to strike and – perhaps more worryingly – their ability to stop the Colts striking when they have the ball in their hands.
Indianapolis need this win in a big way, as they can’t afford to fall further behind the Titans at this late stage of the season. Frank Reich’s Colts will see this game as an opportunity to bounce back and with key players such as DeForest Buckner set to return after a week on the Covid-19 list, the boys in blue should be too strong for a diminished Houston outfit.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) to beat the Houston Texans at EVS
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
I had a 100% success rate with the Raiders going into Thanksgiving Week, so their hammering at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons shocked me most of all.
However, that disappointment hasn’t scared me off, and it may even play into our hands this week as the handicap is much nicer than it would have been otherwise, had the Raiders done the business as planned.
With all due respect to the New York Jets, there is no team the Raiders would rather be playing this week. When you’re in need of a bounce-back win, and a renewed statement to rest of the NFL, playing a team without a victory all season is a pretty good place to start.
The 0-11 Jets have clearly been hopeless all season, and a completely win-less year looks to be very much on the cards at this point. Sam Darnold’s days as the Jets’ quarterback are clearly numbered and with the 2021 Draft blessed with some excellent QB talent at the top of the order, starting to win games now would ultimately do nothing but hinder the Jets franchise.
Jon Gruden is a man of action, and he will be eager to put New York to the sword here, before moving on to the latter stages of the season and a possible Play-Off run.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders (-7.5) to beat the New York Jets at EVS
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
The Jaguars defence do very, very little to stifle quarterbacks and impact the passing game, and that could cause Jacksonville some huge problems in this contest.
Remarkably, the Jags routinely allow the highest QB rating (106.3) in the NFL and this will be music to the ears of Kirk Cousins. There’s no doubt that the former Washington passer has his problems, but when he’s given time to work, he can tear through any team with his ability to move the ball through the air.
This is where we find the value in this game.
The likelihood of the Vikings producing a 100-yard receiver in this game seems very high, and it simply may be a matter of which receiver has the greater production on the day. In Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, Minnesota have two receivers more than capable of having monster statistical performances.
The more experienced Thielen sat out late week’s win due to a spell on the Covid list, but he’s back for this game and a real betting option at 10/3 to go for 100+ receiving yards and a Touchdown.
However, Justin Jefferson has been nothing short of sensational in his maiden NFL season and he managed 70 yards and a pair of scores last week, despite being the focal point of the offence in Thielen’s absence. All told, he is currently the 8th-most productive wide receiver in the entire league, and he’s leading the way in a very talented rookie receiver class.
With Minnesota back to a full complement this week, Jefferson can go under the radar and hurt the Jags when their attention is focused on Thielen. In the form he’s in, the idea of the former LSU man going after Jacksonville’s second-best cornerback all night is a mouth-watering prospect.
Best Bet: Justin Jefferson (Vikings) 100+ receiving yards & to score a TD at 4/1
Odds correct as of 1300 GMT on 05/12/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
