Thanksgiving weekend has arrived, meaning the business end of the regular season is firmly on the horizon. With a huge Sunday of NFL action in store, Ross Williams is on hand with his predictions and best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Carolina Panthers (+3.5) to beat the Minnesota Vikings at 10/11
1pt Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 21/20
1pt Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) and Over 57.5 Total Match Points at 3/1
1pt Keenan Allen (Chargers) 100+ receiving yards & to score a TD at 7/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 21:25 GMT on Sky Sports NFL
92 players will run out at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday evening, but ultimately there are only two that will be talked about before, during and after this game.
This is the Chiefs against the Bucs, but make no mistake, this is Patrick Mahomes versus Tom Brady.
The play of the two quarterbacks is vital in this contest for obvious reasons, but the added pressure will be on Brady, due to the inconsistency of his rushing attack lately. Ronald Jones had a great day in the win against Carolina, but that was sandwiched between a pair of games where the Buccaneers failed to accumulate 50 combined yards.
When the ground game comes to a standstill like that, the entire offence rests on the shoulders of Brady and – although he is the greatest of all time – those shoulders are still 43 years old, and some of his throws lately have been far from what we have come to expect over the last two decades.
With this in mind, I would find it very difficult to not side with the reigning world champions.
The Chiefs have a defence that only gives up 21.4 points per game, and Patrick Mahomes should sail by that total with the help of his high-powered offence.
Although the Tampa Bay front seven is strong, they have big problems down the field and they are currently allowing opposition quarterbacks to complete 69.2% of their passes. Only three teams in the entire NFL are worse off in this category.
To cut a long story short, if Mahomes is allowed to complete almost 70% of his passes on Sunday, this one is already over.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 21/20
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
- 18:00 GMT on NFL Redzone - Free to watch on Sky Bet
There’s a real argument that Carolina should actually be favoured in this contest, so the fact they have 3.5 points in their back pocket makes them my preferred bet of the weekend.
Minnesota suffered a demoralising defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, whereas Carolina come into week twelve with their morale high, following a 20-0 whitewash of the Detroit Lions.
P.J. Walker was temporarily at the Panthers’ helm last week, but the quarterback change failed to sway this well-drilled Carolina team and they ultimately got the job done with ease. This bodes very well for Matt Rhule’s outfit moving forward, and with Teddy Bridgewater back in for the Panthers this week, I expect them to capitalise on this momentum.
The Vikings offer up much more than the Lions – not least the offensive trio of Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson – but defensively the Panthers have shown up relatively well this season, despite their inexperience, and they won’t make it easy for Kirk Cousins and co.
We can expect points in this one, as Minnesota will undoubtedly break the door down at some point. But, I still fancy Carolina to reply in kind.
The combination of Bridgewater and his receiver unit (D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel) has been superb this season and it’s about time they were given the respect they deserve.
Against the Vikings, they will each get their chance to prove to the rest of the league that this passing attack is for real. The match-up is perfect, as only the Dallas Cowboys have conceded more passing touchdowns than Minnesota in 2020.
Best Bet: Carolina Panthers (+3.5) to beat the Minnesota Vikings at 10/11
Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons
- 18:00 GMT on NFL Redzone - Free to watch on Sky Bet
The Raiders didn’t get a win last week, but it speaks volumes that Derek Carr had the ball in his hands within the final minute against the 9-1 Chiefs, with a chance (albeit slim) to go down the field and win the game.
This Las Vegas team is for real, and with a 6-4 record they have a legitimate shot at the Play-Offs if they can keep playing at their current level.
Things are significantly less rosy in Atlanta, after their two-game win streak came to a screeching halt in New Orleans last week. Realistically no one anticipated them to beat the Saints, but they were beaten up badly by the defence of their NFC South rival, and they may still be feeling the effects as they welcome the Raiders to Georgia this weekend.
Picking a winner in this game should be a relatively simple task if the first 11 weeks of the NFL season are anything to go by. Las Vegas appear to be significantly better than the Falcons – who are still conducting the post-mortem of the ill-fated Dan Quinn regime.
Jon Gruden’s Raiders should certainly have the edge, so taking Las Vegas (-3) to win at EVS is very tempting. However, I’ve opted for a touch more value with my recommended best bet.
It’s common knowledge that the Falcons are hopeless defensively, so the Raiders’ skill players should have no problem getting down the field. However, it’s worth noting that Las Vegas themselves ship the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL.
The Raiders can be exposed down the field, and few players in NFL history have been as proficient at accumulating passing yards as Matt Ryan.
If neither team has made dramatic changes to their defensive structures, this one could easily turn into a shootout, with Ryan gun-slinging in his efforts to catch Derek Carr. This means lots and lots of points.
Certainly take the Raiders here, but seeing as 50% of their games so far this season have hit or surpassed 58 total points, it may also pay to consider the over.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) and Over 57.5 Total Match Points at 3/1
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
- 18:00 GMT on NFL Redzone - Free to watch on Sky Bet
Speaking of shootouts, this clash between the Chargers and the Bills could well be a stormer.
Buffalo are five-point favourites at the time of writing and that handicap doesn’t really move me in either direction. This is a tough one to call, and with Buffalo coming off a bye week (with all the unpredictability that brings) I would rather exercise caution here.
Instead of selecting an outright winner, I’d much rather focus on the player markets where there could be an embarrassment of riches to be had.
Los Angeles lose a lot of games, but they hang around until the bitter end in the vast majority of them and that is almost entirely down to the phenomenal play of rookie quarterback Justin Herbert.
With six weeks to go, Herbert essentially has the Offensive Rookie of the Year award wrapped up already, and he should get the chance to showcase why on Sunday.
The Chargers defence will have a tough day stopping a fresh Josh Allen, so the team’s only route to victory will be via the arm of Herbert. He will likely be chasing a Buffalo lead, and that calls for an aggressive air-based approach.
Step forward, Keenan Allen.
The Chargers’ star wide receiver has caught eight more balls than anyone in the NFL to this point, and he’s coming off a monster 145-yard performance against the Jets. Allen also scored his sixth touchdown of the season on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he made it seven this weekend.
He’s averaging eight catches a game in 2020 and if Herbert can keep that level of production up, another 100-yard game will be within Allen’s reach.
Best Bet: Keenan Allen (Chargers) 100+ receiving yards & to score a TD at 7/2
Odds correct as of 1845 GMT on 27/11/20
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