Another big weekend of NFL action is upon us. As the race for the Play-Offs hots up, Ross Williams has prepared his four best bets of week eleven.
Recommended Bets
1pt Alvin Kamara (Saints) to score a brace of touchdowns at 3/1
1pt Baltimore Ravens (-5) to beat the Tennessee Titans at 10/11
1pt New England Patriots (-1) to beat the Houston Texans at 10/11
1pt Indianapolis Colts (-2) to beat the Green Bay Packers at Evens
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts
- When: Sunday at 21:25 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
The old adage frequently used in the NFL is that ‘defence wins championships’.
In the case of the 2020 Indianapolis Colts, we are some way from crowning them champions – and ultimately just a decent play-off run will be enough to satisfy a fan base still hurting from the retirement of Andrew Luck a year ago.
However, I do believe their elite defence is strong enough to get them over the top of Aaron Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers this weekend, which will send a warning shot to the rest of the league.
Rodgers is excellent and his combination with Davante Adams this season has proven to be one of the best in the NFL. However, the Packers unravelled earlier in the year when they faced a Buccaneers defence that got in Green Bay’s face and wrapped up their offensive threats.
In terms of points, passing yardage and overall yardage per game, the Colts defence outrank Tampa Bay, and the pressure that DeForest Buckner and co. have managed to produce up the middle in recent weeks has been nothing short of sensational.
The Packers are going to have trouble scoring points this weekend, and the Colts offence looked to be getting into the swing of things during their big win over Tennessee last week. Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers has to play smart, but if he avoids too many unforced errors, the Colts should have enough to put the stamp on what will be a statement win.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts (-2) to beat the Green Bay Packers at Evens
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
I don’t think the Ravens’ loss in New England last week should scare us.
Although it was a big game to give away, the monsoon conditions in Foxborough - especially during the fourth quarter – places something of an asterisk on the result, as more suitable weather would have clearly provided Lamar Jackson a much better shot at driving up the field and winning the game late on.
The loss is not completely excusable of course, but the Ravens are still one of the top teams in the AFC and we shouldn’t forget that. The Titans, however, look to be on something of a slide. After a great start to the season, Tennessee are now coming off three defeats in their last four games, and even the victory during this period was a lacklustre one against a hopeless Chicago outfit.
The five-point spread here excites me, as I can easily see Baltimore stacking the points on this Titans’ defence. Tennessee’s front seven were unable to contain Indianapolis running back Nyheim Hines outside of the tackles last week and – with all due respect to Nyheim – Lamar Jackson and his small army of complimentary rushing threats are a completely different animal.
Until the Titans get some pass rush, they can’t be considered true contenders, and I think Baltimore will make that very clear on Sunday. They simply don’t pressure the quarterback, and everyone in the NFL knows that giving Lamar Jackson time to work is a death sentence.
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens (-5) to beat the Tennessee Titans at 10/11
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
Match-ups in the NFL are so important, and there may not be a better match-up in the league for the New England Patriots than the Houston Texans.
The Patriot philosophy is pretty simple this year. The run game is essentially everything for them, with their alternative options on the offensive side of the ball scarce at best. When the run game is stopped, they have no choice but to let Cam Newton air the ball out and, in recent history, that hasn’t ended well for them
But when they start to get traction on the ground, good things start to happen for the Pats, and the fact that they’re currently second in the NFL in rushing yardage proves that they’re making a habit of this.
The good news for Patriots backers this week? They’re facing the Houston Texans, the unfortunate owners of the single worst defence in the league against the run.
Romeo Crennel’s team give up a whopping 167.4 rushing yards per game on average, and you simply cannot win football games with those kind of numbers.
Confidence will be high in New England after last week’s win over Baltimore, and I fully expect them to take that energy (and their run-first game-plan) into Houston and come away with a victory.
Best Bet: New England Patriots (-1) to beat the Houston Texans at 10/11
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
With Drew Brees out injured, the general acceptance around the NFL all week has been that former Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston – who came in for the injured Brees on Sunday – will be the Saints’ starter when they take on the Falcons.
However, the latest word out of New Orleans has thrown a spanner in the works, as it now appears Taysom Hill will start at quarterback for the hosts in week 11.
Although the Saints will remain favourites in this NFC South clash, Sean Payton committing to Hill at quarterback does change the complexion of the game. It’s no secret that Hill isn’t the greatest passer of the ball, but he does cause problems for defences with his legs.
Therefore, it’s safe to assume the Saints will be looking to consolidate the ground game as much as possible on Sunday, and that’s where Alvin Kamara comes in.
The dynamic running back is one of the NFL’s most prolific weapons and I expect him to grasp Sunday’s challenge with both hands. Kamara will see plenty of looks, both on the ground and on short passes with Atlanta overcompensating for Hill, and I fancy him to turn these opportunities into plenty of points against a defence that has struggled so far this season.
Best Bet: Alvin Kamara (Saints) to score a brace of touchdowns at 3/1
Odds correct as of 1800 GMT on 20/11/20
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