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NFL Week 11 betting tips: Best bets, predictions, picks and previews
Ross Williams has produced an ROI of more than 25% so far this season and he has four selections for Sunday night's NFL matches.
NFL betting tips: Week 11
2pts Jonathan Taylor 100+ rushing yards and to score a touchdown in Colts v Eagles at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Cleveland Browns (+7.5) to beat Buffalo Bills at 20/21 (General)
2pts Cincinnati Bengals (-4) to beat Pittsburgh Steelers at Evs (General)
1pt Las Vegas Raiders (+0.5) to beat Denver Broncos & under 42.5 total match points at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
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Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Cleveland Browns (+7.5) to beat Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are an excellent football team with some extraordinary players. The likelihood of them appearing in the Super Bowl this season is still pretty high but the western New York outfit are undeniably becoming easier and easier to bet against with each passing game.
I’m not getting too carried away here – I do expect Buffalo to ultimately beat Cleveland to make amends for last Sunday’s disappointing defeat by Minnesota. But the spread is a large one; particularly when you consider the major talking point of the week.
This ‘home game’ for Buffalo will actually be played in Detroit, thanks to a massive snow storm that threatened to postpone the match-up altogether. The Bills will then presumably stay in the Motor City until Thursday, where they are coincidentally due to face the Lions in a road game for the first time since 2014.
Strangely enough, the Bills also hosted a game at Ford Field during that same 2014 season, due to very similar circumstances.
But I digress, the key takeaway is that the Bills have had their week of preparation turned upside down and this was a bad time for that to happen, considering the wounds that will have needed licking after a game of the season contender on Sunday. Buffalo had to completely cancel their final practise of the week on Friday.
The Bills will expect nothing less than a win against the Browns, but they’d be forgiven for appearing under-done. This gives Cleveland an edge and the opportunity to take advantage.
Over the last three weeks, Buffalo have been way less effective in run-defence, averaging a loss of 138 yards between the tackles. This is music to the ears of Nick Chubb and the Browns' offensive line, who will seek to carve out a path to victory through the success of their superstar running back.
Will they succeed ultimately? I’m sure Josh Allen will have more than a say in that.
However, the Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven outings and with another touchdown-eclipsing handicap on the table, I like the Browns to run things close as they gear up for the debut of Deshaun Watson and, perhaps, a better-late-than-never pursuit of the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Jonathan Taylor (Colts) 100+ rushing yards and to score a touchdown
I don’t know if the Colts are back. I don’t even think the Colts know if the Colts are back. But I am pretty sure that Jonathan Taylor is back.
The elite rusher of the 2021 NFL season has not had a 2022 to remember thus far. Behind a failing offensive line, his production has massively reduced in both yardage and on the scoresheet. But, last week, the Raiders were given a showing of exactly what the former Wisconsin college superstar can do.
It was no secret that new head coach Jeff Saturday was going to feed Taylor the rock. Running the ball is in Saturday’s DNA. However, even though Las Vegas saw it coming, they couldn’t stop Taylor as he broke off a trademark touchdown run in the second half, contributing to 147 total yards on 22 carries.
It was Taylor’s highest workload since week one – when he carried the ball 31 times against the Texans – and I fully expect that it will be a case of more of the same when Philadelphia come to town on Sunday.
Saturday has taken on a team that was playing soft and it’s clear that he won’t be standing for that. As a player, he was a smash-mouth centre who acted as the perfect foil to Peyton Manning’s ability and guile behind the line of scrimmage. As a coach, he’s going to breed toughness and the run game will be a huge beneficiary of this.
Indiana has just had one of its coldest weeks of the year, complete with snowstorms and freezing temperatures. Despite the fact that the Colts will almost certainly close the roof of Lucas Oli Stadium this weekend, Saturday had his team practising in the elements, rather than in their indoor facility. That is the new coaching regime in a nutshell.
There are no expectations the Colts will beat Philadelphia on Sunday, but I do believe it goes a lot closer than most presume. The Eagles are coming off a short week due to playing on Monday Night Football and Indianapolis are not a straight-forward match-up for Philly.
Much like the aforementioned Bills, Philadelphia’s run defence has been lacklustre of late. Since week eight, teams rushing for 150 yards on the Eagles has become expected and that is absolutely something the Colts will be looking to exploit.
After a week under the tutelage of Saturday, the Colts' offensive line looked much improved and Taylor reaped the benefits. Add another seven days and I’m hopeful we’ll see further improvement so the man wearing #28 can follow up with another big performance.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
- Kick-off time: 21:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Las Vegas Raiders (+0.5) to beat Denver Broncos & under 42.5 total match points
This one could be pretty rough. The AFC West basement battle that no one thought we’d see before a ball was kicked or thrown this season. Alas, the division has proved disappointing, with these two teams in particular driving down standards.
At times, it’s seemed like both of these teams have actively sought out ways to lose, such has been the inadequacy of various units.
The Denver defence is the standout group in this game, without a shadow of a doubt, but it’s still impossible to put faith in the Broncos based on that knowledge alone. The defence is great and NFL-leading in key categories, but the offence led by Russell Wilson is unfathomably bad.
They’ve averaged just 14.6 points per game this season, the worst in the league. In short, Denver keep the score down, but have no idea how to capitalise once they have the ball in their hands.
On the flip side, the Raiders are a different beast. The Vegas defence ships around 25 points per game on average – which is too high by any metric – but the offence is markedly better than Denver’s.
We haven’t seen the 2021 edition of Derek Carr this season, but he has been able to find Davante Adams on regular occasions and Josh Jacobs has produced some career-best performances in the backfield. Josh McDaniels doesn’t have the offensive unit ticking over in the way he’d like but they’re not a lost cause yet and that gives them a slight edge as underdogs on Sunday.
I love the ‘under’ in this one for obvious reasons. If you needed any more convincing, the ‘under’ has hit in eight of Denver’s last nine games.
But, for some added spice, I’m looking to double that up with a tight Raiders victory. There’s not going to be much between these teams and I have a lot of respect for what Denver can produce defensively, but I’m always going to edge towards the team with the significantly more proficient offence.
Wilson will have the ball as much as Carr on Sunday, but there isn’t one piece of 2022 tape that gives me confidence he’ll turn possession into meaningful points. Ultimately this game will be won by the team that can get down the field more effectively and produce one or two big plays in the right area of the field.
Wilson hasn’t shown a spark all season and he doesn’t have an Adams in his corner, so I’m going to ride with a Las Vegas team averaging 22.6 points per game – a full eight more than their opponents.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Kick-off time: 21:25 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Cincinnati Bengals (-4) to beat Pittsburgh Steelers
Look out for these Bengals. The start of the season for Cincinnati was a little disappointing after their momentous Super Bowl run at the beginning of the calendar year. But, in hindsight, it was probably to be expected.
Since then, Cincinnati have come back into their own and are proving to be opposition that no one wants to come up against. There’s been some hiccups on the way, but the Bengals have covered the spread in six of their last seven games and, coming off the bye week, they are justifiable four-point favourites over the up-and-down Steelers.
As ever, Joe Burrow – the seventh-ranked quarterback in the NFL right now according to Pro Football Focus - has been the key, but his supporting cast has been more than up to the task.
Joe Mixon has been playing like a man possessed in the backfield and his most recent outing against the Panthers was one for the ages – 153 rush yards and four touchdowns is a pretty decent return.
Ja’Marr Chase was also playing exceptionally well before his injury, but the offence didn’t miss a beat without the dynamic receiver. Such is the depth of the Bengals’ offence, Tee Higgins easily stepped into the void and he’s well on his way to securing his status as a top-20 receiver in the NFL in his own right.
All-in-all, the Bengals are on the right path and should be nice and fresh as they head to Pittsburgh.
The Steelers won’t be easy, of course, as evidence by what happened in week one. Absolutely everything went wrong for Cincinnati on an afternoon they’d sooner forget, but it is worth noting Pittsburgh still had to utilise overtime to get the job done.
The Bengals – despite some inconsistency – look far better than they did in September and it is highly unlikely things go as far south as they did when these two sides last met.
At 3-6, the motivations of the Steelers have clearly shifted, with a playoff berth nothing more than a pipe-dream. However, the 5-4 Bengals have the postseason in mind and they will view this game as an opportunity to make a statement.
Cincinnati have a rough schedule ahead, so this one’s must-win and after last season’s heroics in the clutch, I have every faith that Burrow and co. can deliver.
Odds correct 21:00 GMT 18/11/22
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