We've hit Week 17 of the NFL and Matt Temple-Marsh is looking for more winners in his Touchdown Value column.
NFL betting tips: Week 17
1pt JK Dobbins anytime in Cincinnati Bengals v Baltimore Ravens at 11/10
1pt Adam Thielen brace in Detroit Lions v Minnesota Vikings at 10/3
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sure, Alvin Kamara looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 1/2 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.
In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
Detroit Lions v Minnesota Vikings
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Adam Thielen brace at 10/3
Last week was more than embarrassing for the Lions. Tom Brady destroyed their secondary for four first-half touchdowns, with his receivers hilariously open as they sliced and diced the defence.
This week the game is meaningless for both teams, but the Vikings will be keen to finish a disappointing season on a high. Kirk Cousins is a solid passer, and Adam Thielen has a HUGE 14 touchdowns on the season.
He’s scored in his last two games, and if you need any more convincing on the Lions’ secondary – they’ve conceded the second most yards to WRs on the season, and the fifth most touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday at 21:25 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Jonathan Taylor brace at 10/3
Taylor has six touchdowns in his last four games, including two braces, as he’s finally stepped into the RB1 role the Colts wanted.
The Jags have secured the top pick in the draft, and have nothing to play for, whilst the Colts are vying for a playoff spot.
This is set up to be a positive game script for the Colts, giving Taylor more snaps. The Jags have allowed the second most scrimmage yards to RBs alongside 18 touchdowns – Taylor will make light work of this defence.
Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers
- When: Sunday at 21:25
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: AJ Dillon anytime at 5/1
A positive game script last week saw AJ Dillon’s breakout, with 21 rushes for 124 yards and two scores. He showcased his brutal running style, ploughing through his opponents.
We likely won’t see a blowout again for the Packers, but the 5/1 price seems very high after such a strong performance.
With a win the Packers will secure a first round bye, so expect them to come out firing against their rivals. Dillon showed enough last week that he should see snaps, even if they’re late in the game.
At 5/1, I like his chances.
Cincinnati Bengals v Baltimore Ravens
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: JK Dobbins anytime at 11/10
Dobbins has scored in five straight games, as he’s become the Ravens’ goal line back.
The Ravens are in a ‘win and in’ playoff scenario, and face a flashy Bengals team. They may have won two straight, but last week they surrendered over 130 yards and two touchdowns to David Johnson.
Dobbins is going to get the volume, and the brace at 13/2 is equally appealing.
New York Giants v Dallas Cowboys
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Michael Gallup anytime at 7/4
Gallup is coming off a huge game against the Eagles, with six catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns. He now has four touchdowns over the last four weeks, and eight red zone targets in his last five games.
Andy Dalton is getting more comfortable with this offence every week, and Gallup as emerged as one of his favourite targets.
The Cowboys are fighting for the putrid NFC East title, and whilst the matchup against the Giants may be hard on paper, Gallup will still see volume.
Cooper will draw CB1 coverage from James Bradberry (last time they played he covered Cooper on 72%), giving Gallup more open looks.
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (01/01/21)
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