NFL expert Matt Temple-Marsh is searching for more value and has two recommended bets in the Week 12 touchdown markets.
Recommended bets
2pts Wayne Gallman anytime in Cincinnati Bengals v New York Giants at 5/4
1pt Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt to both score a TD in Jacksonville Jaguars v Cleveland Browns at 11/4
Sure, Dalvin Cook looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 4/11 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.
In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
LA Rams v San Francisco 49ers
- When: Sunday at 2105 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Jordan Reed anytime at 5/2
Finally, last time out Jordan Reed saw over 15% of the 49ers targets, and ran more routes than TE2 Ross Dwelley. The Rams vs 49ers fixture is a real 'throw out the record' game – they’re nearly impossible to predict.
However, over 23% of the total receiving yards conceded by the Rams’ D has been to tight ends. Reed will figure in this attack, and has a real chance to find the end zone.
That said, leave this one as close to kick-off as you can – Reed is questionable with a non-Covid-related illness. If he is out, then back Dwelley anytime at a huge 6/1.
Cincinnati Bengals v New York Giants
- When: Sunday at 1800 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Wayne Gallman anytime at 5/4
Wayne Gallman has five rushing touchdowns in his last four games, including a brace last time out against the putrid Eagles. With Devonta Freeman hitting IR, Gallman will still serve as the lead back against the Burrow-less Bengals.
The Bengals have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs out of all teams in the league, and with Ryan Finley set to start, the Giants are poised to be in a positive game script.
This means more rushes, and more opportunities for Gallman to find the end zone. The brace at 17/2 is worth considering, too.
Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans
- When: Sunday at 1800 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Michael Pittman anytime at 5/4
Michael Pittman is emerging as the Colts’ number one receiver, in an offence crying out for a star. The rookie broke off for a 45-yard touchdown against the stellar Green Bay DBs, as he recorded his first score of the season.
I like his chances to go for six again, against a middling Titans D. Their DB group has surrendered nearly 1,900 yards to WRs, alongside ten touchdowns – stacking up as the fifth worst in the league to the position.
Last time out against the Titans, Pittman hauled in seven catches for 101 yards – as he also recorded three red zone touches.
His usage is trending in the right direction and he’s getting the crucial red zone targets. Pittman could be in store for a monster game and is another for the shortlist.
Jacksonville Jaguars v Cleveland Browns
- When: Sunday at 1800 GMT
- TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet
- Best bet: Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt to both score a TD at 11/4
The Jaguars will have Mike Glennon as their starting quarterback – they’re embracing the tank. Their run defence has conceded over 1,400 yards and 11 total touchdowns to running backs, and Cleveland has the best duo in the league.
Since his return from injury Nick Chubb has back-to-back 100+ yard games on the floor, whilst Kareem Hunt still retains value. Last week Hunt had eight red zone touches, including four with goal-to-go.
This game should be a blow-out, and the Browns will lean into their two-headed running game strongly.
Cleveland’s luck with weather has been atrocious. The past three weeks have seen blistering winds and punishing floods of rain during their games. This naturally leads to less passes and more rushes, so do not worry about Baker Mayfield’s stats.
The Browns travel to Florida to face the Jaguars, and with a clear forecast predicted we can once again see the Browns’ passing attack in motion. Whilst I still predict a blowout, Austin Hooper at 2/1 feels overpriced.
He’s arguably their premier red zone target, and faces a Jags team who have conceded the joint most touchdowns to tight ends in the league.
Posted at 1345 GMT on 28/11/20
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