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The Kansas City Chiefs celebrate in the NFL

Free NFL betting tips: AFC and NFC Championship previews, predictions and best bets in race for Super Bowl LIV

By Paul Higham

NFL

Mon January 20, 2020 · 5y ago

We're down to the final NFL play-off games as Paul Higham picks out his best bets and selects who will make this year's Super Bowl.

Recommended bets

1pt Packers (+7.5) on the handicap at 10/11

1pt Chiefs (-6.5) & over 52.5 match points at 2/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

8.05pm - Sky Sports Main Event

Can the Titans do it again!? That’s the big question in this AFC title showdown with surprise package Tennessee looking to add an upset win at Arrowhead to a CV that already includes victories at New England and Baltimore. On that form they have every chance.

Can lightning really strike three times though? Well it all seems to rest on the bulky shoulders of Derrick Henry, the running back colossus who has left defenders bruised, battered and beat-up in his wake when piling up 377 yards in those two shock wins.

Knowing he’s coming is one thing, stopping him is another. He even produced a touchdown pass against the Ravens just for good measure and after he bullied his way to 188 yards against the Chiefs in Week 10 they know exactly what he can do.

Stopping Henry will be priority number one, two and three for the Chiefs – not only is his production damaging but the Titans can control possession and the clock if Kansas City can’t stop him gaining yard after yard.

Not that possession is everything – the Chiefs had the ball for just over nine minutes less than Houston last week but ended up with 51 points in their incredible comeback victory, when they just about summed up their team in one game.

Three TDs in THREE minutes in an epic comeback from @Chiefs - this is just an incredible half of #NFLPlayoffs action#HOUvsKC pic.twitter.com/a1gd9pZqr1
— Paul Higham (@SportsPaulH) January 12, 2020

Sloppy and error-strewn at the start in defence then gave way to a stunning series of offensive football as Patrick Mahomes sliced and diced the Texans for five touchdowns, including three in three minutes.

With the speed Mahomes has at receiver and the power at tight end with Travis Kelce, their offence is truly unstoppable when it gets into that kind of groove. Two big injury concerns could shape KC’s game though, as the aforementioned Kelce and defensive giant Chris Jones are both major doubts.

They’re both crucial to the gameplan as far as the Chiefs see it, namely stop Henry running and hit the Titans with big plays to get ahead early – being behind against Tennessee will be a much bigger hole to get out of than against Houston.

We’ve said this the last two weeks, but it looks like the end of the line for Tennessee, they’ve had a memorable run and it certainly wouldn’t be a huge shock now if they were to pull this off and make the Super Bowl.

If they go ahead, then QB Ryan Tannehill can continue his role of merely handing the ball off to Henry, but if they fall behind and he has to try and win it with some big throws that could well be the undoing.

You’ve got to go with Kansas City to make it to Miami.

Prediction: Titans 24-33 Chiefs (Sky Bet odds: 100/1)

Best bet: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 and Over 52.5 Total Match Points at 2/1

RequestABet: Chiefs to win (-6.5), over 49.5 match points, D. Henry & T. Hill to score TDs at 8/1

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Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

11.40pm Sky Sports Main Event

Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback left with a Super Bowl win, the future Hall of Famer is the stand-out name in the final four, regardless of the potential shown by some of the rest, and yet his Green Bay side are bigger outsiders at San Francisco than Tennessee are at Kansas City!

The oddsmakers have made San Fran such big favourites for three reasons – the 49ers are at home, they looked scarily good defensively last week, and they inflicted a 37-8 beatdown on the Packers earlier in the season. The Niners are healthier than they were in that November game, but Green Bay are better having won six straight games since.

This is play-off football though, and scar tissue from the regular season doesn’t usually have an impact under the increased pressure of the post-season. Teams that won a game by 25 points or more are 22-14 in play-off rematches so although they do usually win it’s by no means a sure thing.

If you’re looking for a more conclusive omen for the situation - the Packers are just the fourth team to have a 13-win season and yet by seven-point underdogs in the Conference title game. The previous three all won.

So that’s history out of the way, what about the on-field keys to victory? Well, a major one will be how Green Bay’s offensive line can keep San Francisco’s monstrous defence at arm’s length and give Rodgers time to try and dissect the 49ers’ top-notch secondary.

A brotherly showdown on Sunday.@packers head coach Matt LaFleur on facing his brother, @49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur, with a trip to the @SuperBowl on the line. #GBvsSF

📺: Championship Wednesday on @NFLNetwork pic.twitter.com/r0fvpJF3nx
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2020

The Packers pass rush is not too shabby though, with the Smith pairing of Preston and Za’Darius the only duo to both have 12 sacks in the season – they both had two last week against Seattle.

On offence, where Green Bay have quality, with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams the best running back and receiver on show, San Francisco have quantity with three top backs and a plethora of speedy receivers who largely prosper over the middle when running cunning plays drawn up by Kyle Shanahan.

Tight end George Kittle is the stand-out on San Francisco’s offence and Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking for him at every opportunity, especially if the pressure is on, but the sheer number and variety of the 49ers’ attacking options is another big reason for them being favourites.

While you could easily see Rodgers and Adams carving it up in the passing game, or more likely Jones dominating on the ground, there seem fewer options for them to use to keep pace. And while there’s still the doubt over whether their defence is for real, you’ve got to give the nod to the hosts.

They’ve been the best team in the NFC all season, they’ve won in every kind of way and have never really been out of games even when they’ve lost. They should be heading to the Super Bowl, but that points spread looks just too big to back with any confidence.

Take the Packers with the points.

Prediction: Packers 24-27 49ers (Sky Bet odds: 100/1)

Best bet: Packers (+7.5) on the handicap at 10/11

RequestABet: Packers +7.5, both teams score 20pts, G. Kittle & D Adams TDs at 14/1