We are now deep into the 2021 NFL regular season, with Week 17 looked at from a variety of angles.
NFL Midweek Update Week 17: Omicron & injuries, playoff race and key storylines
We are now closing in on the end of the 2021 NFL regular season, with Week 16 in the books.
Whether it is picking against the spread or putting together exotic parlay predictions, you now have plenty of evidence to sift through when making your NFL betting selections.
Our midweek update is intended to inform you with some intel to take on the bookmakers each weekend. So, without further ado, let’s get into it.
Injury Report
COVID-19/Omicron: Some important updates and items of interest to report here as the new variant rips through locker rooms in the United States. They are points which you should definitely factor in when betting, and they absolutely will impact the odds:
● The NFL has now adopted new guidelines which reduce quarantine from 10 days to 5 days for players who are asymptomatic - INCLUDING those who are unvaccinated. A significant move as we head towards the marquee post-season games. For starters, unvaccinated Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz (added to COVID list on Tuesday) now has a chance to face Las Vegas on Sunday, where previously he would have had none.
● Per Tom Pelissero of NFL Network (see Tweet below), players who test positive then receive a 90-day test holiday - during which they won’t miss any more games. So teams struggling right now with several players out could yet have a competitive advantage when the playoffs come around. Go figure…
#Colts QB Carson Wentz's status for Sunday's game against the #Raiders remains TBD pending updated COVID protocols.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 28, 2021
What we do know: Like all players who test positive, Wentz now gets a 90-day test holiday and thus isn't at risk of missing any more games through Super Bowl LVI.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, Kansas City Chiefs): While the ground game isn’t the focal point of that high-powered Chiefs offense, losing Edwards-Helaire for any extended time would not have been good. When he left Sunday’s win over Pittsburgh with a collarbone injury, the team feared the worst. However, it appears CEH has only suffered bruising, and while he may struggle to make it onto the field vs Cincinnati on Sunday, he should be fine for post-season play.
James Robinson (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars): This one doesn’t have playoff ramifications, but it does round off a truly miserable 2021 season for the talented Robinson. Benched earlier in the year by the now-fired Urban Meyer, Robinson tore his Achilles during Sunday’s loss to the Jets in New York. Now he must spend the entire off-season rehabbing in a bid to be ready for 2022.
Ike Boettger (OG, Buffalo Bills): Buffalo’s crucial win over New England in Foxboro put them in control of the AFC East for now, but it did come at a cost. Left guard Boettger, who had started 10 games this season, went down with a torn Achilles and is done for the year. Bad news for Josh Allen heading into January.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, San Francisco 49ers): Jimmy G tore a ligament in the thumb on his throwing hand during last Thursday’s 20-17 loss to the Titans in Tennessee. He is listed as day-to-day, but it appears he will miss Sunday’s Week 17 clash with Houston and rookie Trey Lance will start instead. For reference, Drew Brees was forced to undergo surgery and missed five games following a similar injury in 2019.
Darrell Henderson (RB, Los Angeles Rams): Henderson will miss the remainder of the regular season after injuring his MCL during the important win in Minnesota on Sunday. The blow for the streaking Rams is softened though by the potential return soon of Cam Akers, who has been out since July with a torn Achilles.
Miles Sanders (RB, Philadelphia Eagles): Tough week for running backs, right? Sanders broke his hand during Sunday’s rout of the woeful New York Giants, and he will miss this weekend’s trip to Washington to face the Football Team. Philly has resisted the temptation to put him on IR though - which means they expect him back within three weeks. Good news for a team with very live post-season hopes.
Jack Doyle (TE, Indianapolis Colts): Doyle left the win over Arizona last Saturday early in the game and did not return. He is dealing with both ankle and knee injuries and is listed as day-to-day. That means he is likely to suit up for the crucial game vs the Raiders on Sunday, but his production may be limited.
NFL Playoff Picture - Current Seedings
The battle for post-season berths is becoming clearer every weekend, and we now have multiple teams which have booked their play-off spots heading into Week 17.
In the NFC, Dallas joined Green Bay in clinching a place in the tournament and it also wrapped up the NFC East division title. The Pack meanwhile are now NFC North champions again.
Tom Brady and Tampa reached the post-season and clinched the NFC South by winning in Carolina. The NFC West now has two playoff teams with the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona both in.
In the AFC the picture remains way murkier, with only Kansas City confirmed as a playoff team so far. The Chiefs have also clinched yet another AFC West title.
If the post-season started now, these are the teams who would be playing deeper into January:
American Football Conference (AFC)
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-4, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Tennessee Titans (10-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
- Buffalo Bills (9-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (9-6)
- New England Patriots (9-6)
- Miami Dolphins (8-7)
On the bubble: Baltimore Ravens (8-7), Los Angeles Chargers (8-7), Las Vegas Raiders (8-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1), Cleveland Browns (7-8), Denver Broncos (7-8).
National Football Conference (NFC)
- Green Bay Packers (12-3, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Dallas Cowboys (11-4, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4, clinched playoff spot)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Arizona Cardinals (10-5, clinched playoff spot)
- San Francisco 49ers (8-7)
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)
On the bubble: Minnesota Vikings (7-8), New Orleans Saints (7-8), Atlanta Falcons (7-8), Washington Football Team (6-9).
Remember, the top four seeds in each conference go to the division winners. The next three go to the teams who are not top of their division but have the best records in the conference. They are the wild cards.
The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye in the playoffs along with homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
Key NFL storylines
Cowboys in rude health: Betting spreads in the last couple of weeks have been crazy thanks to the inevitable late-season injuries plus the spread of Omicron. One team which (so far) has avoided the carnage is the Dallas Cowboys. Not only does Dallas head into Week 17 with a playoff berth and a division title clinched, it does so in comparatively good health. The returns of Demarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory and Neville Gallimore up front top off what might be the best Cowboy defense in decades. The 56-14 rout of Washington on Sunday Night Football also showed that Dak Prescott and the offense are humming once again. A Green Bay vs Dallas showdown at Lambeau in late January, with the NFC title on the line, appears a distinct possibility. A mouthwatering prospect.
What’s the deal with Miami?: The Dolphins have already set one NFL record in 2021 - the first franchise to have both a seven-game losing streak and a seven-game win streak in the same season. The Fish were 1-7 and closer to the first overall pick in the 2022 Draft than the playoffs when November started. Now they are on the brink of making the post-season. There are absolutely reasons to be positive, but the enthusiasm should be tempered just a little. They’ve largely muddled through against bad teams - talk about flying under the radar. The defense is good with talent at all three levels, but the offense is largely made up of Jaylen Waddle. The rookie wideout has been terrific, but the jury is still out on Tua at QB and the best teams will look to take away that outlet to Jaylen in January.
Praise for Detroit: It may seem unusual to hand out praise to a 2-12-1 team, but the Lions are absolutely overachieving in 2021. The early talk of an 0-17 season is history, and recent wins over Minnesota and Arizona were as impressive as they were shocking. The Lions have very limited talent, but they are headed for better things. They are well coached (Dan Campbell has had an excellent year), they never quit and are building up front - having a good offensive line is a great starting point for a successful franchise. That desire to fight and refusal to quit means they are also one of the best teams in the league vs the spread (10-5 so far in 2021). The Lions have two first-round picks in the 2022 Draft, and while QB remains a big question mark, there is reason for football optimism in the Motor City. It is not often we can say that.
Providing context to Rodgers: Aaron Rodgers has come in for a ton of criticism during 2021. First that off-season stand-off with the Packers, then the furore over his vaccination status and the way he responded to it. Things have been tough on the field too as well - he has operated with a depleted offensive line and is also battling a broken toe. Despite all of that, Rodgers has been astonishing since that shock 38-3 loss to New Orleans in Week 1. His numbers are off the charts - 33 TD passes against just 2 interceptions. All this and many people still don’t feel we’ve seen the best of him yet this year. With the playoffs beckoning and the Pack in position to take the #1 seed, everything is lined up for #12 to run the table.
Oh Carolina: The title of a Shaggy song from 1993 (sorry, age showing here) and also the thoughts of many league observers as Year 2 of the Matt Rhule experiment nears its conclusion in Charlotte. Optimism was high when Rhule signed a seven-year deal to leave college football to coach the Panthers in early 2020. And there were definite improvements in Year 1. But now after a 3-0 start to 2021, Carolina sits on 5-9 and is out of the post-season hunt. There is a saying in football that “when you have two quarterbacks, you have none” and that is pretty apt right now. The move to trade for Jets disaster Sam Darnold AND pick up his fifth-year option has been an unmitigated failure, and the re-signing of Cam Newton has failed to improve the situation. Throw in a horrible offensive line, and there remains much work to be done. The 2022 season will likely be pivotal for Rhule. At some stage he needs to find an answer to the game’s most important position and find somebody to protect whoever he chooses. If not, that seven-year deal will likely only be relevant for settlement purposes.
Game Of The Week
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday January 2, 1800 GMT)
This should be a beauty - Patrick Mahomes vs Joe Burrow in a shootout in Cincy.
There is much on the line for both franchises heading into this Week 17 matchup: KC is trying to stay ahead of Tennessee in the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, while Cincy is closing in on an AFC North title after that rout of Baltimore last week.
Last week Burrow and his talented receiving corps feasted on a horribly depleted Ravens secondary - this week they have a tougher assignment against a much-improved KC defense.
Last week was too easy for that aforementioned Chiefs defense vs Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh, but stopping Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins et al will be much more challenging.
On the other side of the ball we expect Travis Kelce to be back to complete that All-World cast of offensive stars for the Chiefs, and Mahomes should have the full arsenal at his disposal.
Enjoy!
