We are now deep into the 2021 NFL regular season, with Week 15 in the books.
Whether it is going against the spread or putting together exotic parlay picks, you now have plenty of evidence to sift through when making your NFL betting predictions.
Our midweek update is intended to inform you with some intel to take on the bookmakers each weekend. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Injury Report
COVID-19: The pandemic - and that Omicron variant - continues to cause major issues in locker rooms around the NFL. We had three games rescheduled during Week 15, and there is the growing possibility that Week 16 may be similarly affected. Check out the spreads and the NFL’s COVID/reserve list throughout the week as they are changing in a huge way due to teams being badly afflicted.
Chris Godwin (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Tampa Bay’s hopes of repeating as Super Bowl champions suffered a major blow on Sunday Night Football, and not just with that shocking 9-0 shutout loss at the hands of New Orleans. The Bucs also lost star WR Godwin for the year with a torn ACL and MCL during the second quarter. That is a significant blow with question marks remaining over the reliability of Antonio Brown and a new injury for Mike Evans (more on that to come) . Godwin’s numbers in 2021? 1103 yards on 98 catches with five scores. Tough to replace - even with the receiving corps Brady normally has at his disposal.
Leonard Fournette (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): More bad news in Tampa. Fournette is likely to miss the remainder of the regular season after sustaining a hamstring injury in that loss to the Saints. Now the team is set to sign Le’Veon Bell to back up Ronald Jones.
Mike Evans (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): To complete the trifecta of key Tampa concerns, Evans suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday night and is by no means certain to face Carolina this weekend. This could be a vastly different Bucs offense to the one we normally see - and that 11-point spread currently favoring Brady and co may be a steep hill to climb.
Johnathan Abram (S, Las Vegas Raiders): The Raiders are still very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt after that 16-14 win over Cleveland, but that success did come at a cost. Vegas lost Abram with a dislocated shoulder and he will undergo an MRI to determine the full extent of the injury. Any missed time will be a blow - Abram has been a key cornerstone of the defense in 2021.
Joe Mixon (RB, Cincinnati Bengals): Some good news for Cincy after that big win in Denver on Sunday. The ankle injury Mixon suffered is not serious and he should be good to go for this weekend’s crucial assignment vs AFC North rival Baltimore.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, Pittsburgh Steelers): Pittsburgh’s rookie pass catcher sustained a concussion during the win over Tennessee on Sunday and he is now doubtful for the tough trip to Arrowhead to face Kansas City in Week 16.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Denver Broncos): Another concussion - and a nasty one too. Bridgewater spent a night in a local hospital after being injured during Sunday’s loss to Cincinnati. That means Drew Lock is likely to get the start this weekend vs the Raiders in Las Vegas. Not great news for Broncos fans with playoff hopes on the line.
Julio Jones (WR, Tennessee Titans): Those who feared the Titans trading for Julio was a big risk due to his declining availability due to injuries appear to be being proved right. The future Hall of Famer left Sunday’s defeat in Pittsburgh with a hamstring injury and he has to be a huge doubt with the short turnaround to the Thursday Night game vs San Francisco. The return of A.J. Brown (possibly this week) cannot come soon enough for a badly depleted Titans offense.
N’Keal Harry, Nelson Agholor (WR, New England Patriots): We are bracketing Harry and Agholor after both suffered head injuries during the loss to Indianapolis last Saturday night. Really bad news for Bill Belichick heading into a potential AFC East decider vs Buffalo in Foxboro this weekend. Both players are in concussion protocol and their status is still to be confirmed.
NFL Playoff Picture - Current Seedings
We are fast approaching the time of year when playoff talk ceases to become a dream and pretty quickly turns into reality.
In fact we have our first team actually into the post-season - Green Bay clinched a berth after defeating Baltimore 31-30 on Sunday. It remains in possession of the #1 seed in the NFC too.
Things are looking good for Kansas City in the AFC meanwhile - KC moved into the #1 seed by winning a seventh straight game (vs the Chargers) while New England lost to the Colts and Tennessee fell in Pittsburgh.
If you wanted proof that the NFL’s constant search for parity is working, it comes with the fact that 27 of 32 teams are still mathematically in the playoff hunt.
If the post-season started now, these are the teams who would be playing deeper into January:
American Football Conference (AFC)
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)
- New England Patriots (9-5)
- Tennessee Titans (9-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
- Buffalo Bills (8-6)
On the bubble: Baltimore Ravens (8-6), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1), Las Vegas Raiders (7-7), Miami Dolphins (7-7), Cleveland Browns (7-7), Denver Broncos (7-7).
National Football Conference (NFC)
- Green Bay Packers (11-3, clinched play-off spot)
- Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4)
- Arizona Cardinals (10-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (10-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (8-6)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
On the bubble: Philadelphia Eagles (7-7), New Orleans Saints (7-7), Washington Football Team (6-8), Atlanta Falcons (6-8), Carolina Panthers (5-9), Seattle Seahawks (5-9), New York Giants (4-10).
Remember, the top four seeds in each conference go to the division winners. The next three go to the teams who are not top of their division but have the best records in the conference. They are the wild cards.
The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye in the playoffs along with homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
Key NFL storylines
Pack the cream of the crop?: All Green Bay does is keep winning - whatever you throw at it. Aaron Rodgers continues to be elite despite a broken toe - he is now favourite to repeat as league MVP in 2021. The rest of the roster - superbly coached by Matt LaFleur - continues to find a way to win games despite the injuries it has suffered. Not only is Green Bay in possession of the #1 seed in the NFC, it will potentially have three elite talents back for the post-season. LT David Bakhtiari, edge rusher Za’Darius Smith and CB Jaire Alexander have all been virtual non-factors so far this year but their returns will add more power to already the best team in the NFL. The thought of going to Lambeau in January is enough to make any opponent shudder.
Finding a balance in KC: This is not the Kansas City team we expected in 2021. No longer is it just a high-powered offense making up for an awful defense. Seven straight wins since a misfiring start have been keyed in no small part by a vastly improved ‘D’. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and co still provide fireworks when needed, but they no longer need to put up 40 every week just to get a W.
Colts and Niners are hot: Two teams who struggled in the early going but are looking strong as we get to the business end of the season. Both possess 8-6 records and both have powerful ground games with bus drivers at QB (Jimmy G and Carson Wentz). These two are both built to win in January and beyond - in the trenches. They will be a difficult foe for anybody, assuming they do take the final step into the post-season.
Cards falling apart?: These are worrying times in the desert. Arizona seemed to be coping with everything the NFL schedule and injury report could throw at it a couple of weeks ago. It was 10-2, in possession of the #1 seed in the NFC and had Kyler Murry and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury. Consecutive losses to the Rams and the Lions though - the latter a shocker - mean the question marks around HC Kliff Kingsbury have resurfaced fast. Arizona needs to prove it can cope with a fight late in the season, and it needs to do so fast. The NFC West title is no given, and any hope of a first-round bye is almost out of the window.
Taylor made: The NFL is very much a stats-driven sport, and some of the data is just indisputable. Jonathan Taylor to score a touchdown anytime appears to be one of those points which you cannot argue with. We had to wait until very late in the game for him to make it 11 straight late Saturday, but he cashed in for punters with a 67-yard gallop to clinch the W over New England. You won’t get rich at the evolving odds, but Taylor is money.
Andrews in the groove: A couple of weeks ago Baltimore TE Mark Andrews was in the depths of despair when he failed to haul in the two-point conversion attempt which would have clinched a win over Pittsburgh. While things are still a struggle right now for the Ravens - they have lost to Cleveland and Green Bay since - Andrews personally is on a hot streak. He followed up his 115 yards and a score vs the Browns with 136 and two TDs against the Packers. He is consistently outperforming lines for receptions and receiving yards, and is an ever-present threat to find the endzone. It also doesn’t matter who he is catching passes from - be it Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley.
Game Of The Week
- Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (Sunday December 26, 1800 GMT)
We had a ton of options for this one, but for the second time in three weeks it is a potential AFC East decider between the Bills and Patriots.
Earlier this month Bill Belichick dusted off a coaching masterclass to spike the Bills 14-10 in brutal conditions in Buffalo, He asked rookie QB Mac Jones to attempt just three passes, instead relying on a punishing ground game keyed by Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.
It is not going to be 70 and sunny in Foxboro this time, but it’s highly unlikely to offer the high winds we saw a couple of weeks ago either. We expect a vastly different game with a ton more offense and a close finish. It should be epic.
