We are now deep into the second half of the 2021 NFL regular season, with Week 13 in the books.
Whether it is going against the spread or putting together exotic parlay picks, you now have plenty of evidence to sift through when making your NFL betting predictions.
Everything seems more normal heading into this weekend - Bill Belichick is once again assuming genius status after New England became the first team since 1974 to win an NFL game when attempting three or fewer passes.
Our midweek update is intended to inform you with some intel to take on the bookmakers each weekend. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Injury Report
Marlon Humphrey (CB, Baltimore Ravens): When Baltimore HC John Harbaugh went for two instead of attempting to tie Sunday’s game vs Pittsburgh at the end of regulation it should tell you everything about the state of the Ravens secondary. Harbaugh would later defend the decision to try and win the game and not go to overtime based on the fact he had no cornerbacks left. The loss of Humphrey for the year after he tore a pectoral muscle Sunday is another body blow for a depleted coverage unit.
Adam Thielen (WR, Minnesota Vikings): The Vikes not only suffered an embarrassing loss to Detroit on Sunday, they also saw Thielen suffer a high ankle sprain which makes him “a long shot” to face Pittsburgh in a crucial Week 14 game on Thursday Night Football. The Vikes are right on the playoff bubble now and a win against the Steelers is essential. The absence of Thielen would make that a significantly harder task.
Damien Harris (RB, New England Patriots): Harris left the terrific win in Buffalo on Monday Night Football with a hamstring injury after rumbling for 111 yards and a score on just 10 carries. The good news for the Pats is that they now have a bye week which mitigates any long-term impact. If Harris is slowed, it will mean more work for the impressive Rhamondre Stevenson.
Logan Thomas (TE, Washington Football Team): Thomas had no sooner returned from a long spell out than he exited Sunday’s win over Las Vegas with a knee injury. There were initial fears he had sustained a torn ACL, but there are hopes now that is not the case. HC Ron Rivera says the team is awaiting further evaluation before confirming the extent of the damage. Bad news for Washington heading into a crucial matchup with Dallas.
Emmanuel Moseley (CB, San Francisco 49ers): The Niners’ impressive renaissance suffered a big jolt Sunday when they lost in Seattle. To add injury to that insult, cornerback Moseley suffered a high ankle sprain and is now expected to miss at least three games. Bad news for another NFC team battling for a wildcard berth.
Mike Glennon (QB, New York Giants): The QB situation for Big Blue is grim heading into the Week 14 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. Daniel Jones was already out with a neck injury heading into last week’s game in Miami, leaving Glennon to start. Things got worse when Glennon suffered a concussion in the loss in Florida. If Jones or Glennon cannot go, Jake Fromm is likely to get a first career start this weekend. Welp.
Kenyan Drake (RB, Las Vegas Raiders): Drake left the loss to Washington with a broken ankle on Sunday and he is done for 2021. To say he was frustrated would be an understatement - he took to social media afterwards to call for rule changes after the grim tackle which took him down for the year.
Taysom Hill (QB, New Orleans Saints): Hill is unlikely to miss time right now with his injury but it won’t exactly help the Saints’ faltering playoff hopes. Taysom has mallet finger - similar to what happened to Russell Wilson earlier this season - but will not have surgery now and is expected to play through the injury. Not great news for Saints fans who watched him throw four picks in the Thursday Night loss to Dallas in the Superdome.
Jamal Adams (S, Seattle Seahawks): Seattle got a much-needed win on Sunday vs San Francisco, but it received news it did not need afterwards with a season-ending injury for star safety Adams. He has a torn labrum plus deeper shoulder damage and is headed for surgery. The Seahawks remember gave two first-round picks to the Jets in return for the Pro Bowl defensive back.
NFL Playoff Picture - Current Seedings
We are fast approaching the time of year when playoff talk ceases to become a dream and pretty quickly turns into reality.
If the post-season started now, these are the teams who would be playing deeper into January:
American Football Conference (AFC)
- New England Patriots (9-4)
- Tennessee Titans (8-4)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
- Buffalo Bills (7-5)
On the bubble: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1), Indianapolis Colts (7-6), Las Vegas Raiders (6-6), Cleveland Browns (6-6), Denver Broncos (6-6).
National Football Conference (NFC)
- Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
- Green Bay Packers (9-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (8-4)
- Washington Football Team (6-6)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-6)
On the bubble: Philadelphia Eagles (6-7), Minnesota Vikings (5-7), Carolina Panthers (5-7), Atlanta Falcons (5-7), New Orleans Saints (5-7).
Remember, the top four seeds in each conference go to the division winners. The next three go to the teams who are not top of their division but have the best records in the conference. They are the wild cards.
The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye in the playoffs along with homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
Against The Spread: Which NFL teams are best?
If you’re looking to bet against the spread, it always pays to know which teams you might be able to bank on.
You’ll note that those plucky Lions - not content with just savouring a first win of 2021 - are consistently good in outperforming lowly expectations. Arizona meanwhile - absolute money on the road.
Here’s an updated list of the best teams around at covering so far in 2021:
Game Of The Week
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team (Sunday December 13, 1800 GMT)
In the 70s, 80s and early 90s this was the best rivalry in football but those days are long gone. The NFC East is often now the worst division in the NFL.
Sunday’s meeting in Maryland though has a little more significance after Washington’s four-game win streak and three recent losses for Dallas.
What once seemed a cakewalk to the division title for the 8-4 Cowboys is not quite so certain when you consider they still have to play the 6-6 Football Team first.
This is a must-win matchup for Ron Rivera and co and they destroyed Dallas twice in 2020. But the Cowboys were then without Dak Prescott - who has 13 TDs and a passer rating of 111.2 vs just one interception in 8 career games against Washington.
By 2130 UK time Sunday we should know whether the NFC East race is over, or whether it is truly now a two-horse affair. It should be fun.
