NFL Divisional Playoffs betting tips, points spreads, accumulators and best bets for Sunday January 21
Ross Williams previews Sunday's two games in the NFL Divisional Playoffs, with Buffalo Bills strongly fancied against Kansas City Chiefs.
NFL betting tips: Sunday January 21
3pts Amon-Ra St.Brown (Lions) over 91.5 receiving yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
2pts Amon-Ra St.Brown (Lions) to score a touchdown at evens (General)
2pts Buffalo Bills (-2.5) to beat Kansas City Chiefs at 5/6 (General)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
- Kick-off time: Sunday 2330 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have long had the better of Buffalo in the postseason, but this one feels different.
In what has become one of the NFL’s great modern rivalries, playoff match-ups between Kansas City and Buffalo have been bonafide classics, but ultimately Mahomes has come away with the win.
However, the Chiefs’ QB faces something brand new on Sunday.
His previous 15 NFL playoff games have all been played at either Arrowhead Stadium or the stadium hosting the Super Bowl. He has never faced a true away game in the postseason.
He will this Sunday though, and it’s a factor that could help to make the difference and finally provide Josh Allen with the moment that has alluded him during his otherwise stellar career.
The Bills are 2.5-point favourites and that feels fair. Buffalo are undoubtedly the hottest team in the NFL right now, having won seven of their last eight games in a must-win period of the season, and their wildcard victory over Pittsburgh last weekend never really looked to be in doubt.
Josh Allen was mercurial in the passing game, completing 70% of his passes and connecting on three touchdowns, while he himself created the highlight of the game with an incredible rushing touchdown that had the Steelers’ defence bewildered.
There’s little reason to suggest we won’t see a similar performance from the Bills this week and that could be enough to beat Kansas City for the second time this season.
Back in December, the Bills pulled off a 20-17 victory in enemy territory and that felt like a marker being put down, particularly as Buffalo were just in the process of turning things around after a surprisingly mediocre start to the campaign.
The momentum is with Buffalo now and this feels like their moment.
The Chiefs were marginally better than Buffalo defensively in the regular season, conceding a single point less per game on average, but both sides were within the NFL’s top four defensive units, so the difference over the 17 games is pretty negligible.
Offensively though, the Bills were considerably more effective. Buffalo scored an average of 26.5 points per game, while Kansas City averaged 21.8. After years of being regarded as the NFL’s ultimate point-scorers, that’s quite a remarkable stat as it’s the Chiefs’ lowest season-long average since 2012.
You can never fully rule out the Chiefs due to their knack of winning January football games, but this is new territory and Buffalo fans will feel like it may never happen if the Bills fail to knock off their rivals on Sunday night, in what is absolutely their greatest opportunity to date.
With the handicap shorter than a field goal and a Buffalo three-point victory already in the bag this season, I’ll side with the Bills to cover and go one step closer to the Super Bowl appearance that Josh Allen’s talent undeniably deserves.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
- Kick-off time: Sunday 2000 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
It isn’t always the case in the Playoffs, but Detroit hosting Tampa Bay in this weekend’s divisional round provides the punter an advantage, as it’s a match-up we’ve already seen this season.
Back in October, the Buccaneers were the hosting party, but they fell away rather tamely. The Lions ran out of Raymond James Stadium with a 20-6 victory as Tampa failed to find the endzone.
Crucially, Detroit scored two touchdowns and both came from the hand of quarterback Jared Goff.
The Bucs have been lauded for their defensive stoutness this season and rightly so, having conceded an average of just 19 points per game. However, much of their success has come against the run.
Against the pass, Tampa are significantly more susceptible and the previous meeting between these two sides highlighted the issue.
Jared Goff completed 30 of his 44 passes that day, racking up 353 yards along with his pair of passing touchdowns.
It was Goff’s most productive day of the regular season in terms of yardage and although Tampa have surpassed expectations in reaching the final eight, the passing yardage they concede on a regular basis has remained a problem. Averaging just shy of 250 yards per game, only three teams have shipped more.
The main beneficiary of Goff’s production back in October was star receiver AMON-RA ST. BROWN and that’s exactly where we should look this weekend.
Not content with having arguably the coolest name in world sport, St. Brown has now firmly cemented his status as one of the NFL’s premier receiving talents.
He racked up 1,515 yards in the regular season – third in the league – and ten touchdowns but, most importantly, he’s been unplayable at the right stage of the season.
In his last five games, he’s put in four 100-yard performances and scored four touchdowns, while maintaining some serious consistency with his quarterback. In that time, he’s averaged ten targets per game and that’s unlikely to fall on Sunday.
With his receiving yardage line set at 91.5 yards, I’d lean towards the over, seeing as he’s surpassed that total 11 times since September. I’d also look at backing him to score a touchdown at even money, with him looking to replicate his previous 127-yard, touchdown-scoring performance against the Bucs this weekend.
Posted at 1450 GMT on 20/01/24
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