NFL Divisional Playoffs betting tips, points spreads, accumulators and best bets for Saturday January 20
Matt Temple-Marsh is in excellent form with the Super Bowl approaching, and our NFL expert has seven selections for Saturday's first two Divisional Playoffs.
NFL betting tips: Saturday January 20
2pts Christian McCaffrey 91.5+ rushing yards at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Aaron Jones 67.5+ rushing yards at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Jordan Love 7.5+ rushing yards at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Christian McCaffrey to score a TD hat-trick at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
- Kick-off time: Sunday 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Spread: San Francisco 49ers -9.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 50.5 points @ 10/11
Saturday’s second game see’s the NFC one-seed kick off their playoff campaign, hosting the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay’s win against the Cowboys was the story of last weekend, and JORDAN LOVE looks like yet another generational quarterback for the Packers. But now they travel to San Francisco in a game where Matt LaFleur faces off against his mentor, Kyle Shanahan.
The big problem for Green Bay is the combination of Kyle Shanahan and CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY. CMC racked up 2,023 total scrimmage yards on top of 21 touchdowns – he’s one of the best offensive players in the league, and in the conversation for MVP.
This matchup against Green Bay could get messy – they have conceded the fifth most rushing yards this season and rank 24th in yards allowed per carry. His rushing line is set at 91.5 for this game – a number he has cleared in six of his last eight games, and we can expect him to do so again come Saturday night.
Even the touchdown hattrick looks value at 13/2 – the mind wanders back to the 2019 NFC Championship game where Raheem Mostert ran wild for 220 yards and four touchdowns in a Shanahan demolition job against the Packers. Just think what he can do now with the best RB in the NFL.
If Green Bay are going to have any chance of winning, a lot rests on AARON JONES.
Jones is arguably the most in-form running back in the NFL right now, with four straight 100+ yard games. He dominated against the Cowboys with three touchdowns, and whilst the 49ers are a difficult challenge (they allowed the third fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL), we’ve seen RBs such as James Conner, Joe Mixon and Jerome Ford all have success.
If they are to win this game they need long, game-clock controlling drives, with Jones at the heart of it all.
Whilst looking at the rushing lines, Love’s 7.5 stood out to me – I’m not sure why this line is so low. Love has shown he can use his legs when he needs to, averaging 14.5 rushing yards per game this year and beating this line 11 times in the regular season. The Niners have allowed eight or more rushing yards to nine quarterbacks this season – and Love is going to need to use his legs to dodge the 9ers vaunted defensive line. Take the over.
The Packers have shown huge growth throughout the season, but ultimately, they are such a young and untested team, whereas the 49ers boast experience and have had huge success in the playoffs over recent years.
The matchup that decides this contest is Kyle Shanahan against Packers defensive coordinator, Joe Barry. He’s had his worst year to date – and this may well be his last game for the Pack. Watch linebackers Quay Walker nd De’Vondre Campbell get picked on routinely, as the 9ers move the chains and run up the score.
This Packers team is dangerous, but playoff success will come down the road for Love.
San Francisco 49ers 38-25 Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
2pts Zay Flowers 51.5+ receiving yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Isiah Likely to score a touchdown at 21/10 (bet365)
1pt Dalton Schultz 50+ receiving yards at 21/10 (bet365)
- Kick-off time: Saturday 21:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Spread: Houston Texans +9.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 44.5 points 1/1
The divisional round kicks off with the number one seed Ravens taking on the Cinderella story Houston Texans. The Texans now has as many wins this season as they have in the previous three seasons combined – DeMeco Ryans has turned this team around.
However, the Baltimore Ravens may finally be the team to end their story. They rank as the number one defence in terms of points conceded per game (16.5), whilst their offence scores 28.4 points per game, ranking as the fourth best in the league. Lamar Jackson will be crowned MVP, and he closed out the season in style with six straight wins – including two huge games against the 49ers and Dolphins, where he threw for seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
But the Texans boast their own superstar quarterback, rookie CJ Stroud. In his playoff debut he was near perfect, completing 76.2% of his passes, three touchdowns and no interceptions – with a 157.2 passer rating, against what was meant to be one of the best defences in the NFL, the Browns.
Baltimore is a step above the Browns, and there’s two huge factors in their favour. They’re well rested – after securing a first-round bye, but also managing to rest most of their starters in week 18 – that’s nearly two weeks of recovery. And they’re playing at home, where they average over 36 points per game.
One player to specifically watch in this matchup is wide receiver ZAY FLOWERS.
His receiving line is set at 51.5 – he can crush this. He’s cleared 60 yards in three of his last four games, and faces the Texans, a team he can exploit. They run the eighth highest rate of zone defence in the NFL, and against zone defence Flowers averages 13.5 yards per reception. He had great success against the Rams (60 yards) and 49ers (72 yards), who run zone-based secondaries.
This is also a great spot for Baltimore’s tight end, ISIAH LIKELY. The Texans have allowed more catches to tight ends this season than any other team in the NFL. Last week against the Browns TEs David Njoku and Harrison Bryant combined for 11 catches for 158 yards. The middle of the field is there to be taken advantage of, and Likely can score a touchdown.
Speaking of tight ends, there’s potential with DALTON SCHULTZ.
He’s become the clear second option in this offence behind Nico Collins since Tank Dell’s injury, and that should continue against Baltimore. Since week 10, the Ravens have allowed the fourth most receiving yards and sixth highest yards per reception to tight ends. His line is set at 36.5 yards – which he has cleared in four of his last five games. He has big play potential – check out his 37-yard touchdown last week for reference.
There’s a chance Houston may be playing keep up with Baltimore so we can expect more of an air raid offence, and ultimately more targets to Schultz.
Houston’s season started with a beatdown in Baltimore, and it’s ultimately going to end there as well. A lot has changed since week one, and it would be a shock to see them blown out, but there’s simply no denying Baltimore’s talent.
Baltimore Ravens 30-24 Houston Texans
Posted at 1730 GMT on 19/01/24
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