Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Free NFL betting tips, picks and predictions | AFC Championship Game

NFL betting tips: AFC Championship Game

2pts Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer at 6/4

1pt Josh Allen first Buffalo touchdown scorer at 4/1

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Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Sunday 23:40 GMT on Sky Sports NFL
• Match odds: Chiefs 4/7 | Bills 29/20

The AFC Championship game has thrown up a belter this year, with two of the league’s finest young talents doing battle at Arrowhead Stadium.

After his untimely exit from last week’s clash with the Cleveland Browns, the status of reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes has been up in the air for much of the build-up, but it appears at this point that the Kansas City quarterback will be good to go.

Without their star passer, the Chiefs would have gone into the title game as underdogs, but with Mahomes’ availability secure, the Bills have now been handed a 3.5 point head-start by the handicapper, and this should be of interest to us.

Although the brilliance of Mahomes is undeniable, the quarterback will be banged up when he takes to the field on Sunday night and he could even be excused for not being his usual self. On the other hand, Josh Allen is healthy and playing the football of his life at the moment, heading into the biggest game of his career.

Betting against the 2020 Super Bowl champions outright would be foolish, but a stab at Buffalo (+3.5) at a 17/20 best price has to be tempting.

Just three points would have worried me, but the extra half-point makes me feel a lot more confident, as it tips us over an important threshold. Buffalo can now lose via a late Harrison Butker field goal, and we will still be in profit.

The stats are in the Bills’ favour too. Over their 18 games this season, Buffalo are an impressive 12-6 against the spread, whereas the Chiefs have had way less success with handicaps. Despite also racking up 15 wins so far this year, Kansas City are actually only 7-10 against the spread.

In simple terms, Kansas City win the vast majority of their games, but they don’t often put teams away and blow them out. Hence, there’s good reason to believe this one will go down to the wire on Sunday evening.

I do believe the Chiefs will get the job done in the end though, albeit possibly by the skin of their teeth. The game is all set up to be an aerial battle and – although there’s an argument that Buffalo have the best receiver in the game in Stefon Diggs – the sheer arsenal of Kansas City weapons is something to behold.

Tyreek Hill is a point machine, Travis Kelce might be the greatest receiving tight end of all time and the cavalry of Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins (if healthy) isn’t half bad either.

I don’t expect Mahomes to be as active outside the pocket in this game, fresh off the concussion protocol and nursing a toe injury, but there’s no suggestion that he’ll be any less prolific with his arm. If he is able to stay in the game for the full 60 minutes, you’d always like Mahomes to win the duel down the stretch.

Josh Allen won’t be giving this one up easily though, in what is Buffalo’s biggest game in a quarter of a century. The big-arm quarterback will be throwing towards Diggs plenty, and expect Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis to be involved too.

The problem the Bills have faced all year is their lack of productivity on the ground, and that won’t be remedied in a single week. However, a platform to build from is vital to any success the Bills have on Sunday. Therefore, in the heat of battle, I fully expect Allen to take this on himself.

Due to the danger the Buffalo receivers pose, I suspect we’ll see plenty of man-to-man coverage from Kansas City, and that should open up plenty of running lanes and opportunities for Allen to make plays with his legs, especially early.

Allen to score anytime (6/4 best price - 6/5 general) is a nice play you should be considering, but for extra value I really like the idea of Buffalo’s quarterback and talisman setting the tempo for his team with a touchdown in the first quarter.

I don’t think it will be enough when all is said and done, but the Bills won’t go down without a fight, and we are set for an excellent penultimate game of the NFL season.

Best Bet: Josh Allen first Buffalo touchdown scorer at 4/1

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs reach Super Bowl LV

Odds correct at 1100 GMT (24/01/21)

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