Ross Williams looks at the final week of the regular season, where Kansas City Chiefs can stay within 10 points of the Broncos.
NFL betting tips: Week 18
2pts Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5) to beat the New Orleans Saints at 10/11 (General)
2pts Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5) to beat the Denver Broncos at 10/11 (General)
1pt Buccaneers (-13.5) & Chiefs (+10.5) both to win at 5/2 (General)
The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us and, as ever, it’s chaotic.
We’ve enjoyed a profitable season to this point, utilising trends and average game totals to find edges in the various slates of games, but much of that goes out of the window in week 18. The number of games we can confidently target this week has been significantly reduced.
The fact of the matter is, most of the league’s playoff spots are locked in and many of the teams involved are likely to wrap their star players in cotton wool ahead of a tough postseason. Saquon Barkley, for example, has already been ruled out of the Eagles’ final game, despite being within striking distance of the all-time single-season rushing record.
At the other end of the spectrum, the teams with the worst records in the league will be saying all the right things in the press and they’ll appear set to put their best foot forward on Sunday… but does a three-win team really want to claim a meaningless victory on the final day of the campaign? Do they really want to risk reducing the value of their draft picks in April?
Let’s kick off by looking at the few teams that really will be gunning for a win on Sunday, and the reasons why.
In the NFC South, both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons have a shot at claiming the division title on Sunday, but the Bucs are in the driving seat. If Tampa beat the New Orleans Saints, the crown will be theirs. However, if the Saints come up with an upset, the Falcons can sneak their way to a division championship.
As these games are to be played simultaneously, drama could ensue – although for reasons I’ll get to, let’s hope not.
Elsewhere on the Sunday slate, there’s an AFC playoff berth up for grabs. Denver are in pole position and, if they win, the spot will belong to the Broncos. If Bo Nix’s team slip up, the door will open up for the Miami Dolphins, who will simply require a win over the Jets.
There’s also the small matter of the #1 seed in the NFC to be determined, along with the NFC North title. Both will be decided in a winner-takes-all clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccanneers
- Sunday, 1800 GMT - live on Sky Sports
With a division title there for the taking, Tampa Bay are heavily favoured as they host the Saints and although the handicap number is edging towards the scary side, it’s fair at this moment in time.
The bookmakers have Tampa as 13.5-point favourites over their rivals. It’s the biggest spread of the Buccaneers’ season but they have the ability – and the scenario – to justify it.
Tampa have been a good covering team this season, going 10-6 against the spread, and their recent form has been excellent. They’ve won five of their last six and, last time out, destroyed the Carolina Panthers 48-14.
Following the tragic events in New Orleans this past week, the Saints will be running on a lot of emotion on Sunday and head coach Darren Rizzi has already talked about his desire to lift sprits in the city with a strong performance.
But too many of the tangible aspects of this match-up stack up in favour of the Bucs to suggest any kind of upset is likely.
As of Friday, the availability of New Orleans’ three primary offensive weapons (Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave) is still unknown and – with little to gain from victory on Sunday – we can safely assume that no chances will be taken on that trio.
This will only further hinder an offence that has struggled massively of late. In their five games in the month of December, New Orleans didn’t breach 20 points once.
In the same time period, the Buccaneers accumulated 166 points at a rate of 33.2 per game. Through their 16 games so far, the Bucs have averaged an impressive 29.7 points per game; fourth in the NFL, behind the much-lauded Lions, Bills and Ravens.
We can also look to the previous meeting between these two teams back in week six. That ended 51-27 to Tampa Bay, and it took place on the Saints’ home patch.
For my money, the Buccaneers should clinch the NFC South title in style, with a two-touchdown victory over their old rivals.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
- Sunday, 2125 GMT - live on Sky Sports
Such is the mayhem of week 18, the Denver Broncos are 10.5-point favourites over two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
As expected, the Chiefs will prepare for playoff action by taking many of their starters out of the firing line. The likes of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce can relax, while Carson Wentz takes the reins at quarterback for one week only.
The Broncos, on the other hand, have no such luxury and that’s why they’re so heavily fancied against their AFC West rival.
For the record, I do think Denver get the job done. They’re in this position for a reason and, if nothing else, the individual play of Bo Nix and Pat Surtain is reason alone to justify their place in the postseason.
I just don’t love the idea of them having to beat Kansas City by 11 points to cover the spread and, with that in mind, I’m leaning towards the Chiefs keeping this one closer and edgier than Denver would like.
No, the Chiefs won’t have their stars out there, but they will be coached by the same masterminds that have built a dynasty and – in the back of their minds – Kansas City will be keen on avoiding the possibility of a division rival also making it to the playoff arena.
Every opponent on the road to the Super Bowl is dangerous, but there’s an added wrinkle when said opponent has faced you twice already that same season, and twice in every season prior. Denver’s gameplan for Kansas City’s starters will be as detailed as gameplans come, and that’s a hazard for Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ three-peat hopes.
Keeping it tight won’t be easy for Kansas City, but these aren’t just any old backups either. They’re still the backups on a 15-1 football team that now stand just a handful of games from NFL history. There’s a certain level required to make the roster of the 2024/25 Kansas City Chiefs, and I daresay that level is a fair bit higher than on some other NFL franchises I could mention.
Even at the quarterback position, they may have some juice in Carson Wentz. He’s barely seen the field in regular season action over the past couple of years, but the Chiefs selected him as their backup quarterback this year for a reason and – in years gone by – they’ve had success in similar scenarios.
Twelve months ago, in another game that meant little to their championship aspirations, Blaine Gabbert led the team against the Chargers in week 18 – and the Chiefs won.
As it turns out, a year spent practising with arguably the most talented quarterback in NFL history can improve a backup’s game. Who would have thought it?
All told, the full-strength offence of the Broncos should have too much for the KC second-stringers, but I believe the Chiefs can stay on the field long enough to turn this into a real slog.
If they make Denver earn it, I think the Chiefs will cover the spread for the fourth game running and have the Broncos looking over their shoulders into the fourth quarter.
Posted at 1730 GMT on 03/01/24
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