NFL betting tips: Week 17 touchdown scorers, prop and stats bets

NFL betting tips: Week 17

2pts Justin Fields 75.5+ rushing yards at 10/11 (bet365)

2pts George Kittle 44.5+ receiving yards at 10/11 (bet365)

1pt Justin Fields 100+ rushing yards & any time touchdown at 9/2 (bet365)

1pt Justin Jefferson 150+ receiving yards at 9/2 (bet365)

1pt Jahan Dotson 40.5+ receiving yards, 3.5+ receptions & a TD at 17/4 (bet365)

1pt George Kittle 75+ receiving yards & any time touchdown at 7/1 (bet365)

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Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

• When: Sunday 18:00 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
• Best bets: Justin Fields 75.5+ rushing yards @ 10/11
• Best bets: Justin Fields 100+ rushing yards & any time touchdown

As we near the end of the season, we’re on record watch. Justin Fields is just 195 rushing yards away from Lamar Jackson’s rushing record – and we know it matters to him. “I’m already deep in it this year so might as well try to go get that record,” he said, and head coach Matt Eberflus has ruled out benching Fields in what are ultimately meaningless games.

The good news is he faces the Detroit Lions this week. Here’s a selection of quarterback rushing performances against the Lions this season:

• Justin Fields: 13 rushes, 147 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Jalen Hurts: 17 rushes, 90 yards, 1 touchdown
• Josh Allen: 10 rushes, 78 yards, 1 touchdown
• Daniel Jones: 7 rushes, 50 yards, 1 touchdown
• Geno Smith: 7 rushes, 49 yards, 1 touchdown

No team has allowed more rushing yards to QBs than the Lions – and a huge factor is how much the Lions play man coverage, 37% of the time, ranking as the third most in the league.

In games where Fields has faced man coverage in over 30% of the game, he’s seen a 70% increase in rushing. It comes down to the open field – as the passing play develops and defenders cover Fields’ receivers, the quarterback attacks the open field with his legs. Take advantage of the plus matchup as he chases history.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

• When: Sunday 21:25 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports NFL
• Best bets: Justin Jefferson 150+ receiving yards

Speaking of records – Justin Jefferson is 208 receiving yards away from Calvin Johnson’s record, which he set in 16 games, compared to the now 17-game season. There’s extra incentive for Jefferson to smash the record this week, to end the argument once and for all – but regardless, JJ is set for another huge game.

In his last three games, Jefferson has racked up a huge 479 yards, from an absurd 47 targets. He’s eclipsed the 150+ mark four times this season – including back in week one against the Packers (nine catches, 184 yards, two touchdowns). He’s the best receiver in the NFL, and the one thing the Minnesota Vikings guarantee is points.

The Vikings are scoring 25.2 points/game (seventh best in NFL), while giving up 24.9 points/game (fifth worst) – this means Jefferson is going to be on the field more and more, ultimately leading to more receiving yards.

This matchup may look daunting on paper, with the Packers on a three-win streak, but it’s been a soft schedule. And before Tua’s unfortunate third concussion of the season, he was dealing. Both Waddle and Hill eclipsed the 100+ receiving yard mark – with huge receptions (Waddle 84, Hill 52). There are still huge holes in the Packers’ defence, and Jefferson is going to exploit them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders

• When: Sunday 21:25 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
• Best bets: George Kittle over 44.5 receiving yards
• Best bets: George Kittle over 75 receiving yards & any time touchdown

George Kittle is all the way back. Since Brock Purdy came under centre, Kittle’s target share has jumped from 17% to 22% – with a 36% share last week. In his last two games, the tight end has racked up 213 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Ahead of last week the Commanders were a top-five unit against tight ends, allowing the second fewest yards to the position – yet Kittle racked up 120 yards.

The TE now faces the dismal Jarett Stidham-led Raiders, who are allowing the sixth most passing yards per game in the NFL, with over 20% of those yards going to tight ends. Purdy is finding Kittle more and more in the open field, where he thrives. In the past two weeks he’s had long catch and runs registering 54 yards and 34 yards. With Deebo Samuel ruled out again, we can expect more of the same usage from Kittle in a whitewash for the 49ers.

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

• When: Sunday 18:00 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
• Best bets: Jahan Dotson 40.5+ receiving yards, 3.5+ receptions & 1+ TDs

Jahan Dotson is on a hot streak. In his last three games the rookie has logged a team high 24 targets, resulting in 15 catches, 235 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Last week he saw nine targets against the stout 49ers defence, posting six catches, 76 yards and a touchdown.

With Carson Wentz back as the starter I love Dotson’s lines even more this week – he’s his favourite target. Terry McLaurin’s target share drops from 27% down to 16% with Wentz, and Dotson is the main beneficiary.

I predict his streak to continue against the Browns. Cleveland are allowing 137 receiving yards/game to WRs, alongside 14 touchdowns to the position – the 10th most in the NFL. Dotson has three redzone targets in the last two weeks, with two of them coming with just goal-to-go. Take advantage of these low lines before the bookies catch up.

Posted at 1500 GMT on 31/12/22

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